2024 Cincinnati Reds Preview
2024 Cincinnati Reds Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]
2024 Cincinnati Reds Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.
This 2024 Cincinnati Reds Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Reds had a 20-game improvement in wins last year, giving them their second winning season over the past three years. Unfortunately, they missed the playoffs for the third consecutive season and the ninth time since 2013. Cincinnati has five World Series titles, with their last championship coming in 1990. FullTime Fantasy‘s 2024 Cincinnati Reds Preview has everything fantasy baseball fans will need.
Cinci finished 25th in ERA (4.83) while performing better with their relievers (4.11 ERA – 16th). Their bullpen had 48 wins (2nd), 30 losses, and 53 saves (1st) over 652.1 innings with 617 strikeouts. The Reds ranked 9th in runs (783), 14th in home runs (198), and 9th in RBIs (747). They led the majors in stolen bases (190) on 238 attempts (79.8%).
Cincinnati signed 3B Jeimer Candelario, SP Frankie Montas, SP Nick Martinez, RP Emilio Pagan, and RP Brent Suter. They parted ways with OF Hunter Renfroe, OF Harrison Bader, 1B Joey Votto, 3B Nick Senzel, OF Wil Myers, and SP Justin Dunn.
The backend of the Reds’ pitching staff looks improved, but Cincinnati can’t win without elite seasons and development from SP Hunter Green and SP Nick Lodolo. The ninth inning should be in good hands again with CL Alexis Diaz.
Their offense has a core of young players (2B Matt McLain, SS Elly De La Cruz, 1B Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and 3B Noelvi Marte) with championship upside. The Reds also have some winning outs at other positions, setting up an exciting offensive season.
Cinci looks poised to be a factor in the NL Central if their key players live up to their potential.
Starting Lineup
OF TJ Friedl
Over six seasons in the minors, Friedl hit .275 with 303 runs, 40 home runs, 208 RBIs, and 89 stolen bases over 1,856 at-bats. In his two years of experience at AAA, he hit .269 with 92 runs, 20 home runs, 74 RBIs, and 23 stolen bases over 591 at-bats. Friedl posted strength in his walk rate (10.2) while having a favorable strikeout rate (17.3).
In his first starting chance in the majors in 2022, he finished with a career-high average hit rate (1.815), but his contact batting average (.292) came in below his time at AAA (.332). The Reds gave him only part-time at-bats until September (.209/12/5/8/1 over 91 at-bats). His best run came in August (.386 over 44 at-bats with eight runs, three home runs, and 10 RBIs).
Friedl made 126 starts in centerfield last year, leading to a productive five-category season (.279/73/18/66/27 over 488 at-bats). He spent two trips on the injury list over the first half of the year with oblique and hamstring issues. Over his final 40 games, his bat (.293 with 26 runs, eight home runs, 20 RBIs, and five steals over 140 at-bats) helps fantasy teams up the standings. Friedl was at his best against left-handed pitching (.354 with three home runs and 12 RBIs over 96 at-bats). His best production (13 home runs and 41 RBIs) came at home.
Despite the progression power, he ranked poorly in exit velocity (86.7) and hard-hit rate (27.6). Friedl had a slight flyball-favoring (41.9%) swing path. Over the past two years, he hit 26 home runs with only 22 barrels. His strikeout rate (16.5) remains an asset while posting a slightly favorable walk rate (8.5).
Fantasy Outlook: Friedl earned the right to gain starting at-bats in 2024, but his previous resume doesn’t jump off the page. He proved he could handle AAA and last year’s success appears to be a step forward in his career path. His FPGscore (1.52) ranked 51st for hitters. Friedl has an ADP of 158 in mid-February in the high-stake market as the 92nd batter drafted. The Reds gave him 384 of his 488 at-bats, hitting first or second in the batting order in 2023. Cinci will steal bases, pointing to another 15/25 season with neutral stats in the other three categories. Friedl is a reasonable value for a fantasy team shopping for his skill set in this area of the draft…
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