2024 Chicago Cubs Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Chicago Cubs Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

Over the past four seasons, the Cubs hit the Superfecta based on their finishes in the NL Central (1st, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd). They’ve missed the postseason for three consecutive years. Their highlighted season came in 2016 when Chicago won the World Series for the first time since 1908. From 2015 to 2020, the Cubs made the playoffs five times, the best run in the history of the franchise. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Chicago Cubs Preview breaks down their chances or returning this season.

Chicago ranked 14th in ERA (4.08), with one tick better from their relievers (3.85 – 13th). Their bullpen had 27 wins, 31 losses, and 35 saves over 584.0 innings with 641 strikeouts. The Cubs finished 6th in runs (819), 15th in home runs (196), and sixth in RBIs (786). They stole 140 bases on 174 attempts (80.5%).

They lost OF Cody Bellinger, 3B Jeimer Candelario, OF Trey Mancini, 1B Eric Hosmer, SP Marcus Stroman, RP Michael Fulmer, RP Shane Greene, RP Tyler Duffey, and RP Brad Boxberger to free agency. Chicago signed RP Hector Neris and SP Shota Imanaga. 1B Michael Busch and RP Yency Almonte came via a trade with the Dodgers for two minor-league prospects.

The Cubs’ starting lineup has three potential weaknesses unless they sign another bat or two, and they also need C Miguel Amaya to seize their lead-catching role. 

The late innings have a chance to be better if RP Adbert Alzolay builds on his growth as a reliever. The Cubs starting pitching has more upside than it first appeared. They have a couple of developing arms pointing to depth in their rotation in 2024, and Shota Imanaga should prove to be a winning investment. 

Starting Lineup

2B Nico Hoerner

Hoerner hit .272 over 335 at-bats with 45 runs, three home runs, 46 RBI, and eight stolen bases with Chicago over his first three seasons. Between September 22nd in 2019 and April 7th in 2022, he hit a home run (264 at-bats) in the majors. 

In 2022, Hoerner finished 66th in FPGscore (0.69) for hitters while setting career highs in all categories. His best play came before the All-Star break (.307/29/5/27/9 over 274 at-bats). The Cubs gave him only 45 at-bats over 5th in the batting order.

Last year, Hoerner had all but two of his 619 at-bats hitting first or second in the Cubs’ lineup. He hit higher than .300 in April (.328), June (.301), and September (.302). His bat played better vs. lefties (.306 with one home run and 18 RBIs over 170 at-bats). Hoerner has a slight uptick in strikeout rate (12.1) while remaining in an elite area. His walk rate (7.1) almost matched his career average (6.9). 

He continued to have weakness in his contact batting average (.326 – .332 in the minors), painting a lower ceiling in batting average. Hoerner had a regression in his average hit rate (1.354). His HR/FB rate (4.9) came in below 2022, but he did have a slight bump in his flyball rate (34.1). Hoerner only had 10 barrels (11 in 2022) with a lower exit velocity (86.6) and hard-hit rate (33.4).

Fantasy Outlook: The uptick in stolen bases (43) was the most significant surprise for Hoerner in 2023. Over his previous 1,180 at-bats between the minors and his first four years with Chicago, he only had 42 steals over 54 attempts. His FPGscore (4.13) for batters ranked 23rd, with a +3.68 score in the stolen base category. His ADP (67) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship ranks him as the 39th player drafted. Hoerner is an improving player, but he doesn’t hit enough balls hard with loft to see a push much higher than 10 home runs, even with 600 at-bats. With 35 steals, he would deliver par value for his draft value. I don’t see the Cubs’ offense repeating last year, so I won’t fight for him…

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