2024 Atlanta Braves Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Atlanta Braves Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Braves finished with the second-most wins (104 – tied with their 1993 season) in the team’s history in 2023, but they failed to make it to the World Series. Atlanta extended their postseason streak to six seasons, leading to one championship title (2021). Over the past 33 years, the Braves have been one of the best teams in baseball, with 23 trips to playoffs and one other World Series win (1995). The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Atlanta Braves Preview breaks down the club’s chances this season.

Atlanta was active in the trade market in the offseason. They made a couple of dump trades reminiscent of fantasy leagues at Yahoo and ESPN, where the goal is to give away a volume of players for one potential impact bat or pitcher. 

The Braves shipped out their second-tier prospects (SP Michael Soroka, SP Jared Shuster, 2B Nicky Lopez, and 2B Braden Shewmake) to the White Sox for a lefty reliever (Aaron Bummer). In a second deal with Seattle, they acquired OF Jared Kelenic, SP Marco Gonzales, and 1B Evan White for P Cole Phillips and P Jackson Kowar. Their last trade brought in SP Chris Sale for 2B Vaughn Grissom. The Braves added SS David Fletcher for infield depth in a minor deal.

They lost OF Eddie Rosario, RP Kirby Yates, and RP Brad Hand to free agency while signing RP Reynaldo Lopez and IF Luis Guillorme. 

Last season, the pitching staff had an underwhelming ERA (4.14 – 15th). Their bullpen (3.81 ERA – 11th) graded slightly better, highlighted by 38 wins and 52 saves over 588.0 innings with 642 strikeouts. Atlanta had the best offense in baseball (947 runs, 307 home runs, and 916 RBIs). They stole 132 bases on 159 attempts (83.0%), thanks to Ronald Acuna (73-for-87).

On paper, the Braves may have a better offense than last year if all their key players stay healthy and perform up to expectations. The only position with a below-par option looks to be shortstop.

I expect a better finish on the pitching side of the equation via the addition of Chris Sale and a healthy season from Max Fried. Their bullpen also has a better overall structure based on their offseason changes.

Starting Lineup

OF Ronald Acuña

The Braves lost Acuña for the season in 2021 on July 10th with a torn ACL in his right knee. His success over 82 games projected over the entire season came to 142 runs, 47 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases, which would have ranked him first for hitters in FPGscore (13.51). 

In 2022, he returned to action on April 28th after sitting out the first 19 games. Acuña ran over his 22 starts (.284/13/2/10/9 over 81 at-bats), but he struck out 32.3% of the time. Groin, quad, and foot injuries led to 12 missed games in May and June. His best production came over the final two months (.275/31/7/27/7 over 204 at-bats). Acuña stole 20 of his 29 bases before the All-Star break. 

For those drafters, winning the debate card between Acuña and Julio Rodriguez, they were rewarded with a historic season. The Braves’ top player led the National League in at-bats (643), runs (149), hits (217), and stolen bases (73). He hit .298 or higher every month, with his best production coming in September (.340/29/11/23/11 over 106 at-bats).

His output in home runs (41) matched 2019 despite a pullback in his average hit rate (1.765). Acuña was a beast with runners on base (RBI rate – 20), but he only had 333 RBI chances. His strikeout rate (11.4) was the best of his career (22.0) by a wide margin, but Acuña took fewer walks (10.9% – 11.3 in his career).

His exit velocity (94.7 – 2nd) and hard-hit rate (55.2 – 5th) were the best of his career. He finished with 310 balls in play of 95 mph or more. His swing path led to a career-low flyball rate (30.4 – 36.4 in his career) and a new top in his groundball rate (49.5), highlighted by his launch angle (7.4). When putting the ball in the air, Acuña had his fourth-highest HR/FB rate (24.0) over his six seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Since I’ve been tracking FPGscores for the NFBC, Acuña (20.53) was the most impactful player by a wide margin. In 2019, Justin Verlander (16.07) and Gerrit Cole (15.25) had incredible seasons on the pitching side, thanks to big win (21 and 20) and strikeout (300 and 326) totals. Acuña is the first player in almost all early National Fantasy Baseball Championship drafts. He can’t reach much higher in RBIs without a drop in batting order. With more balls in the air, his next stop should be the 50/50 club that has opening seating. I expect a pullback in batting average due to some regression in his strikeout rate and fewer groundballs hit. Acuña feels like a free square in the fantasy baseball game of bingo…

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