Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $9,900/FD – $9,000)
Thomas continues to be a rock at the front of the WR position on Fantasy rosters in the season-long games. Last week he did everything as expected (13/152), but Thomas failed to deliver the critical TD to full his salary bucket in the daily games. He’s on pace for 153 catches for 1,826 yards and eight TDs on 183 targets. His catch rate (83.5) continues to be fantastic while posting five games with over 100 yards receiving, which includes three straight contests (9/131, 11/112/1, and 13/152). Thomas already has five games with ten catches or more plus two other games with nine catches. His best game of the season came in Week 5 (11/182/2) against the Bucs. Tampa remains the worst team in the NFL defending WRs (48.40 FPPG – 140/1894/15 in 217 targets). Over the past two games, the Bucs allowed 40 catches for 609 yards and six TDs on 57 targets vs. WRs. Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving (Sterling Shepard – 7/100/1, Robert Woods – 13/164, Cooper Kupp – 9/121/1, Michael Thomas – 11/182/2, Tyler Lockett – 13/152/2, D.K. Metcalf – 6/123/1, and Christian Kirk – 6/138/3). Tampa has risk at all CB spots while dumping their weak link this week. DraftKings pushed his salary up this week to hopefully lower his ownership. The Saints need a bounce-back win, and Thomas looks poised for an impact game.
DeAndre Hopkins, HOU (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,300)
Hopkins ranks 7th at the WR position (68/665/4 on 92 targets), but he only has eight catches of 20 yards or more. His targets have been higher over his previous four games (12, 12, 13, and 11), which led to two games with over 100 yards receiving (9/106/1 and 11/109). His only impact game (8/111/2) came in Week 1. Over his previous eight games, Hopkins scored only two TDs while gaining only 9.8 yards per catch compared to 14.4 and 13.7 over the last two seasons. The Ravens are 20th in WR defense (36.61 FPPG – 126/1654/6 on 214 targets). Three WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Baltimore (Christian Kirk – 6/114, Larry Fitzgerald – 5/104, and Jarvis Landry – 8/167). Hopkins won’t have a significant edge in his CB/WR matchup. More of an against the grain play. On the positive side, the Patriots’ top two WRs had 20 combined catches for 170 yards and a TD vs. Baltimore two weeks ago.
Amari Cooper, DAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,100)
One of the better locks in 2019 in Fantasy football is Cooper at home. He’s been exceptional in all five games in Dallas (6/106/1, 6/88/2, 11/226/1, 5/106, and 11/147/1) while gaining fewer than 50 yards in three of his four road games (4/44/1, 5/48, and 1/3). His worst game came from an early exit due to an injury. In Week 9, Cooper had his best success on the road (4/80/1). After nine games, he already has as many catches (53) as 2018 while topping that season in yards (848) and TDs (7). The Lions are 21st in the league defending WRs (37.01 FPPG – 118/1526/10 on 199 targets) with three teams with over 200 yards receiving (ARI – 21/233/1, LAC – 12/209, and MIN – 12/207/2). Only two WRs (Larry Fitzgerald – 8/113/1 and Stefon Diggs – 7/142) have over 100 yards receiving vs. Detroit. Darius Slay is a top CB, which will at least lower the number of targets for Cooper in this matchup. More of an avoid that a target while having the talent and explosiveness to surprise if Dallas does need to throw in this game.
Julian Edelman, NE (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,400)
The possession type of opportunity for Edelman makes him a tougher buy at his higher salary level ($7,600), which requires more than 30.0 Fantasy points to pay off. Over his previous five games, he picked up 42 catches for 437 yards and three TDs on 58 targets with three games of value (8/110/1, 9/113, and 8/78/2). Edelman’s path typically leads to seven catches for 74 yards and 0.50 TDs on ten targets. The Eagles opened 2019 with four disaster games (49.50, 57.70, 50.60, and 66.30 Fantasy points) defending WR over their first six matchups. Philly played much better defending WRs over the previous three games (34.90, 25.10, and 13.00 Fantasy points), moving them to 25th in WR defense (39.20 FPPG – 106/1551/12 on 176 targets). Their rebound in WR coverage was helped by a couple of injured WRs returning to the starting lineup. CB Avonte Maddox moved into the top slot CB role after missing four games with a neck issue. Edelman will have a considerable edge in this matchup while being active in the passing game. Not ideal due to his higher salary, but winning n the daily games requires making tough calls.
Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800)
Last week the Saints held Jones to three catches for 79 yards on nine targets, which pushed his scoreless streak to six games. He’s on pace 94 catches for 1,406 yards and eight TDs on 148 targets. Jones gained over 100 yards in four games (5/106/2, 8/128/1, 8/108, and 10/152). Last year he struggled in his two games against Carolina (5/64 and 4/28/1) while having the best game (12/300/1 on 15 targets in 2016) of his career against the Panthers. Carolina ranks 24th in WR defense (37.78 FPPG – 142/1608/5 on 225 targets) with four WRs gaining over 100 yards (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, and Davante Adams – 7/118). CB Donte Jackson may be limited this week with a hip issue while CB James Bradberry missed last week’s game with a groin issue. Winnable matchup if the Falcons’ offensive line can handle Carolina’s pass rush (36 sacks).
Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,400/FD – $8,200)
The Cardinals did a good job covering Evans last week, which led to four catches for 82 yards on six targets. Over his previous three games, Tampa looked his way 45 times (15 targets per game). His other impact game (8/190/3) came in Week 3. When off his game, Evans delivered three poor showings (2/28, 4/61, and 0/0). He still ranks second in WR scoring (21.16 FPPG) in PPR leagues. The Saints worked their way to 18th in WR defense (35.62 FPPG – 107/1487/9 on 188 targets). New Orleans struggled vs. four WRs (DeAndre Hopkins – 8/111/2, Tyler Lockett – 11/154/1, and Chris Godwin – 7/125/2). CB Marshon Lattimore will miss this week’s game, which is a win for Evans. His replacement (Patrick Robinson) missed much of the previous year and a half with multiple injuries while having a questionable path when asked to defend top WR talent. The Evans train should regain some momentum this week.
Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,000)
Godwin underperformed in each of his previous three games (4/43, 7/61, and 6/74), which came after three explosive games (12/172/2, 7/125/2, and 10/151). After nine games, he has 60 catches for 840 yards and six TDs, which is almost the same stats as he had for a full year in 2018 (59/842/7). Godwin averages 9.3 targets per game with 14 catches over 20 yards. Last year Godwin had four catches for 54 yards and a TD on 14 targets in two games against the Saints. New Orleans has weakness in coverage out of the slot, which gives Godwin an upside matchup supported by his success vs. the Saints in Week 5 (7/125/2).
Emmanuel Sanders, SF (DK – $7,200/FD – $6,900)
After a great game (7/112/1) in his first start for the 49ers, Sanders came up short in Week 10 (2/24) after leaving the game early with a rib injury. His season started with two good games (5/86/1 and 11/98/1) for the Broncos. His salary ($7,200) is much too high when adding in his injury factor. I don’t know if Sanders will play this week.
Stefon Diggs, MIN (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300)
Diggs only had 11 combined targets in the two previous games, which led to two short games (1/4 and 3/49). He played well from Week 4 to Week 8 with four playable games (7/108, 7/167/3, 7/143, and 7/143). On the year, Diggs averages only six targets per game with a huge jump in his yards per catch (18.5). The Broncos are 3rd WR defense (26.56 FPPG – 91/1115/4 on 151 targets), with one player gaining over 100 yards receiving (Tyrell Williams – 6/105/1). Chris Harris is a top CB who limits the damage in TDs. The Vikings will run the ball a lot this week while playing from the lead, which puts Diggs in the fade column.
Kenny Golladay, DET (DK – $6,700/FD – $7,600)
With Matthew Stafford battling a back issue, Golladay will take a hit in value with the downgrade at QB in Detroit. Last week he scored a TD for the third straight games (four TDs over this span). His catch rate (53.5) remains below expected value while delivering four games of value (8/117/1, 5/67/2, 6/123/2, and 4/132/1). Golladay averages 7.9 targets per game while scoring eight TDs in nine games. The Cowboys have the second-best WR defense (25.88 FPPG – 92/1110/3 on 156 targets). Their only failure defending WRs came surprisingly vs. the Jets (16/290/1). Only Robby Anderson has over 100 yards receiving against Dallas. Even with success in wide receiver coverage, CB Chidobe Awuzie will give up some big plays with a couple of TDs allowed. Not ideal.
Michael Gallop, DAL (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,700)
Gallop continues to have that explosive look, but he remains second fiddle in the passing game for the Cowboys. Just like Amari Cooper, his best value has come at home (7/158, 7/113/1, and 4/76/1). Gallop has a TD in two straight games with minimal value on the road (10.97 Fantasy points) in PPR leagues. On the year, he averages eight targets per game. The Lions have risk at their second and third CB slots, giving Gallop a chance at a surprising game if Detroit tries to take away Cooper in the passing game. Worth a flier.
John Brown, BUF (DK – $6,400/FD – $5,900)
After nine games, Brown remains a viable top 20 WR helped by his floor of five catches in seven of his nine games. He gained over 70 yards in six contests with the best value coming in two outings (7/123/1 and 5/83/1) with the second game coming against Miami. The Dolphins moved to league average in WR defense (34.58 FPPG – 96/1417/14 on 160 targets). The WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Miami (Marquise Brown – 4/147/2, Terry McLaurin – 4/100/2, and JuJu Smith-Schuster – 5/103/1). CB Nik Needham handled himself well in his previous three starts while allowing only one TD. The Bills should rebound in this game with Brown having a chance at a TD and a run at 100-plus yards.
D.J. Chark, JAC (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,000)
This week the Jaguars will start Nick Foles at QB, which may help Chark in the deep passing game. Over nine games, he has 43 catches for 692 yards and six TDs on 70 targets. Chark has two impact games (4/146/1 and 8/164/1), but he only has over four catches in three contests (6, 7, and 8). Over the previous eight games, Chark gained fewer than 60 yards in five games. The Colts sit 9th in WR defense (30.37 FPPG – 95/1264/5 on 141 targets). Five WRs gained over 100 yards receiving against Indy (Keenan Allen – 8/123/1, Julio Jones – 8/128/1, Byron Pringle – 6/103/1, DeAndre Hopkins – 9/106/1, and Kenny Stills – 4/105). CB Marvell Tell should move into the starting lineup this week with CB Pierre Desir injured. Tell has a short resume while being drafted in the fifth round in 2019. Possible long TD with more follow through if Foles plays well.
Courtland Sutton, DEN (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,600)
Despite playing last week with a third-string QB, Sutton finished with a nice game (5/56/1) ending his three-game scoreless streak. His only game with over 100-yard receiving (7/120) came in Week 1. His floor tends to be four catches per game with an improved catch rate (64.7) with two other games of value (6/62/2 and 4/92/1). Even with growth in 2019, his salary still rates over his upside in most weeks. The Vikings surprisingly fell to 30th in WR defense (41.56 FPPG – 149/1743/15 on 216 targets) after getting drilled by WRs in two of their previous four games (DET – 20/266/4 and DAL – 21/329/3). Five WRs gained over 100 yards vs. Minnesota (Davante Adams – 7/106, Danny Amendola – 8/105, Tyreek Hill – 6/140/1, Amari Cooper – 11/147/1, and Randall Cobb – 6/106/1). CB Xavier Rhodes will allow a high catch rate while holding WRs to short yards per catch. Overpriced while expecting weakness in the QB in Denver.
Marvin Jones, DET (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600)
Last week Jones caught five of his six targets for 77 yards while playing with a backup QB. Over his previous six games, he delivered three-plus contests (6/101/1, 10/93/4, and 8/126/1) while coming up short in two games (2/17 and 4/22). Jones averages seven targets per week. CB Byron Jones only allowed one TD on the year with receivers seeing minimal targets in most games. With no Matthew Stafford, the Lions WRs get a downgrade in value against a defense that plays well defending WRs.
D.J. Moore, CAR (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,000)
Other TDs (1), if I owned Moore in the season-long games, I would be excited by his direction and upside. He played his best ball over the previous two games (7/101 and 9/120). Moore is now on pace for 96 catches for 1,216 yards and two TDs on 140 targets. His catch rate (68.4) is an edge. The Falcons inched up to 27th in WR defense (40.47 FPPG – 124/1696/12 on 168 targets) after played well defending WRs in the past four games (14/197, 15/189, 11/157/2, and 15/168) while facing Kyler Murray, Jared Goff, Russell Wilson, and Drew Brees. Before last week’s game, the Falcons’ defense allowed 18 TDs over 41 possessions in four games. CB Isaiah Oliver didn’t let a ball hit the ground on nine targets against the Saints. Oliver ranks poorly in yards allowed and completion rate against, but he hasn’t allowed a TD since Week 4. I sense a letdown by Atlanta’s defense while trying to figure how to defense Christian McCaffrey. Moore may score two TDs with over 100 yards receiving.
Zack Pascal, IND (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,200)
The excitement of Pascal last week led to a losing game (2/26) while seeing seven targets against the Dolphins. He played well in two of his previous four games (6/106/2 and 5/76/1) while seeing WR1 snaps over the previous three games. T.Y. Hilton should miss a third straight game giving Pascal another WR1 opportunity helped by the return of Jacoby Brissett at QB. The Jaguars are 14th defending WRs (34.11 FPPG – 115/1527/6) with three WRs gaining over 100 yards (Sammy Watkins – 9/198/3, Emmanuel Sanders – 5/104, and Alex Erickson – 8/137). Jacksonville will use their top CB A.J. Bouye to shadow a team’s lead WR. I can’t see a TD or over 100 yards receiving, so Pascal is an avoid for me in the daily contests.
Will Fuller, HOU (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,300)
Fuller is getting closer to playing in Week 11 after missing two games with a hamstring issue. He lacked follow-through in Week 6 (5/44 on nine targets), but it wasn’t for lack of trying by Deshaun Watson ( three chances at long TDs). In a favorable matchup in Week 5, Fuller posted the best game of his career (14/217/3 on 16 targets). Fuller runs about one-third of his routes in the deep passing game, which leads to a wide range of outcomes in his weekly scoring. A date with CB Marlon Humphrey looks like a boring game if he does indeed play.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500)
Crowder played well in his two previous games (8/83/1 and 5/81/1), which led to him ranking 28th in WR scoring (12.11 FPPG). His best game came in Week 1 (14/99 on 17 targets). He gains only 10.1 yards per catch with three games of value with the Jets played with their second and third string QBs. Crowder is on pace for 85 catches for 864 yards and four TDs. Washington sits 17th in WR defense (35.14 FPPG – 07/1316/11 o 144 targets). The Redskins struggle vs. WRs in three games (DeSean Jackson – 8/154/2, Julian Edelman – 8/110/1, and Stefon Diggs – 7/143). CB Fabian Moreau will give up a high catch rate with receivers gaining short yard per catch and no TDs allowed. At best, five catches for 50 yards without a TD while facing his former team.
Christian Kirk, ARI (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,200)
Kirk was the lower valued WR to own last week, and he was identified in the Week 9 WR report. He finished with his best game of the year (6/138/3 on targets). Over his seven games played, the Cardinals gave him double targets in four games. Despite missing three games, Kirk is the 34 ranked WR in PPR leagues. In Week 9, he caught only two passes for eight yards on five targets vs. the 49ers. San Fran ranks fifth in WR defense (27.50 FPPG – 87/1114/6 on 154 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards (Tyler Boyd – 10/122 and John Ross – 4/112/1). CB Emmanuel Moseley played well over the previous six games while allowing one TD and minimal damage in yards. I don’t see follow-through by Kirk in this matchup.
Marquise Brown, BAL (DK – $5,600/FD – $5,600)
Brown just missed on scoring a 49-yard TD early in the game, but he did find the end zone lt in the game helping him to a solid game (4/80/1) despite only seeing four targets. The Ravens had him on the field for 40 percent of their plays due to game score and a continued battle with an ankle issue. His other game of value came in Week 1 (4/147/2). Over seven games of action, he has 28 catches for 454 yards and four TDs on 6.7 targets per game. Houston ranks 28th in WR defense (41.16 FPPG – 124/1708/13 on 197 targets). Despite weakness covering wide receivers, the Texans allowed over 100 yards to four players (Michael Thomas – 10/123, Ted Ginn – 7/101, Keenan Allen – 13/183/2, and Zach Pascal – 6/106/2). CB Johnathan Joseph doesn’t have the wheels to stop Brown, but his playing time and targets invite some failure risk. Possible explosive game if the Ravens need to throw to win in Week 11.
Terry McLaurin, WAS (DK – $5,600/FD – $5,500)
Trust has been a concern for McLaurin over his previous three games (1/11, 4/39, and 4/39) while facing three good defenses (SF, MIN, and BUF). He shined over the first three games (5/125/1, 5/62/1, and 6/70/1). His other impact game (4/100/2) came in Week 6 vs. the Dolphins. Overall, McLaurin averages 6.5 targets per game while being on pace for 64 catches with 994 yards and ten TDs. The Jets fell to 31st in WR defense (42.90 FPPG – 127/1648/15 on 203 targets) with WRs catching ten TDs over the previous three games. Four WRs (John Brown – 7/123/1, Odell Beckham – 6/161/1, Chris Conley – 4/103/1, and Darius Slayton – 10/121/2) gained over 100 yards receiving against New York. The Jets have injuries on defense and in their secondary giving McLaurin a chance at upside if Dwayne Haskins plays well.
Calvin Ridley, ATL (DK – $5,500/FD – $5,500)
After a nice start to the year (4/64/1 and 8/105/1), Ridley has 24 catches for 302 yards and two TDs over 40 targets over his next seven games. He’s settled into a four-catch guy per week while averaging 6.2 targets per game on the year. In 2018, Ridley had seven catches for 154 yards and two TDs on ten targets in two games vs. the Panthers. CB Ross Cockrell played well so far in 2019, but he may miss this week’s game with a quad issue. Possible TD, with some upside in chances if Carolina jumps out to an early lead.
Tyrell Williams, OA (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,200)
After a five-game scoring streak, Williams posted two short games (3/48 and 3/25) over the last two weeks. Over his seven starts, Williams has 26 catches for 380 yards and five TDs on 39 targets with a string of five straight games with three catches. His best game came in Week 1 (6/105/1). Even with short targets (5.8 per game), Williams is the WR1 for Raiders while being on the field for over 85 percent of the time. The Bengals are 11th in WR defense (32.53 FPPG – 91/1426/8 on 140 targets). The only two receivers to gain over 100 yards were Dede Westbrook (6/103) and Cooper Kupp (7/220/1). CB B.W. Webb will give up big plays and a high catch rate. Possible bomb, but his chances may be low again with Oakland expected to have success in the run game.
Curtis Samuel, CAR (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,300)
Samuel has a TD in three of his last four games while gaining 233 combined yards with 15 catches and four TDs. After nine games, he has 34 catches for 488 yards and five TDs on 68 targets. His best game came in Week 6 (4/78/2). CB Desmond Trufant hasn’t played since Week 5, leaving Blidi Wreh-Wilson to man one of the outside CB slots. Samuel will have the edge in this matchup if the Panthers need to get him involved in the passing game. Only a flier unless this game is played at a fast pace.
Tyler Boyd, CIN (DK – $5,200/FD – $5,900)
Over the past three games, Boyd has been active in the Bengals’ passing game (17/182 on 31 targets). He remains on pace for 100-plus catches (101), but Boyd only has one TD in 2019. His best two games came in Week 2 (10/122) and Week 5 (10.123/1) at home. He averages only 10.0 Fantasy points on the road compared to 15.64 at home. The Raiders fell to 26th in WR defense (37.78 FPPG – 111/1712/12 om 172 targets) after struggling vs. WRs in two of their previous four games (GB – 11/262/2 and DET – 15/287/2). CB Lamarcus Joyner allows a high catch rate, but he tends to keep WRs in front of him. A chaser game should lead to double-digit targets, but he needs better play from a rookie QB. May surprise.
Mohamed Sanu, NE (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,800)
In his first full game for the Patriots, Sanu caught 10 of his 14 targets for 81 yards and a TD. After nine games, he has 45 catches for 417 yards and two TDs on targets with one other decent outing (9/91). New England had him on the field for all of their plays vs. the Ravens. CB Ronald Darby struggled earlier in the year against the Falcons while missing four games with a hamstring issue. His possession type resume does limit his upside and scoring even in a favorable game.
Larry Fitzgerald, ARI (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,400)
After three small games (1/12, 2/8, and 4/38), Fitzgerald flashed in Week 10 (8/71). His best value came over the first three games (8/113/1, 5/105, and 5/36/1). After ten games, he has 50 catches for 556 yards and two TDs on 71 targets. CB K’Waun Williams holds WRs to minimal yards per catch with only one TD allowed. Even with a sliding salary, Fitzgerald remains only a donation in the daily contests.
Alshon Jeffery, PHI (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,200)
Before the bye week, Jeffery suffered an ankle injury that puts him in the questionable mode for Sunday’s game. On the year, he has one game of value (10/76/1) while gaining fewer than 55 yards in six of his eight games. The Patriots have the top WR defense (23.84 FPPG – 97/998/0 on 185 targets). A date with CB Stephon Gilmore shouldn’t offer much upside even if he plays.
Dede Westbrook, JAC (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,400)
In Week 7, Westbrook posted his best game of the year (6/103), but he left with an injury in his next contest after receiving only one target. Westbrook is on pace for 64 catches for 766 yards and two TDs on 110 targets. CB Kenny Moore hasn’t allowed a TD with short yards per catch. I can’t trust Westbrook even with Nick Foles returning at QB.
Randall Cobb, DAL (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,400)
Last week Cobb posted his best game of the year (6/106/1), which came after six straight games with fewer than 55 yards receiving and no TDs. After eight games, he has 31 catches for 380 yards and two TDs on 46 targets. CB Justin Coleman allows a ton of receiving yards with many TDs allowed. Possible follow-through while the Cowboys pick on Coleman in coverage.
Deebo Samuel, PIT (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,600)
With George Kittle inactive and Emmanuel Sanders leaving last week’s game early against the Seahawks, Samuel looked the WR1 part after picking up eight catches for 112 yards on 11 targets. His only other game of value came in Week 1 (5/86/1). Over eight games, he has 30 catches for 339 yards and one TD. If Sanders doesn’t play this week, Samuel will draw some attention in the daily games due to his low salary. He may see a lot of CB Patrick Peterson in coverage, which may not be an issue based on Peterson’s slow start since returning from his suspension. More or a maybe than target while needing more news on his opportunity.