ACES
- Jake Arrieta (Phillies) @LAD, @SF
- Jacob deGrom (Mets) @ATL, vs. CHC
- Gio Gonzalez (Nationals) @BAL, @ATL
- Jon Lester (Cubs) @PIT, @NYM
- Charlie Morton (Astros) @NYY, vs. BOS
- Blake Snell (Rays) @OAK, @SEA
- Justin Verlander (Astros) @NYY, vs. BOS
GREEN LIGHT
Chris Archer (Rays) @OAK, @SEA
It has been an inconsistent season for Archer, but he has pitched well in four of his last five starts. He limited the Red Sox to one run in six innings in his last outing and has two good matchups.
Matt Boyd (Tigers) vs. LAA, vs. TOR
Boyd left his last start with a cramp in his side. He has a 3.29 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 19.6 percent strikeout rate and 8.1 percent walk rate. While the average speed of his fastball is 89 miles per hour, he has a career-high 10.4 percent swinging strike rate.
Dylan Bundy (Orioles) vs. WAS, vs. NYY
Bundy has been dominant or putrid. He’s coming off a two-hitter in which he allowed three runs and struck out 14. In seven of 11 starts, he has allowed three earned runs or less. In the other four starts, he allowed 23 earned runs in 15 innings, including a start where he allowed seven runs and didn’t record an out against the Royals. He has allowed 14 home runs in 62.2 innings and the start at home against the Yankees is dangerous.
Mike Clevinger (Indians) vs. CWS, @MIN
Clevinger had to face the Astros in his last two starts. He was solid in the first one and struggled in the second one. The schedule is easier this week. He has a 3.32 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and has trimmed his walk percentage from 12 percent in 2017 to 8.1 percent this year.
Michael Fulmer (Tigers) vs. LAA, vs. TOR
Fulmer has a 4.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 21.2 percent strikeout rate and 8.3 percent walk rate.
Kyle Gibson (Twins) @KC, vs. CLE
Gibson has made strides at times, but he’s still has yet to show consistency to fully trust him. He’s on the lower tier of this group and is more for 15-team mixed leagues. While he has increased his strikeout rate to 24.3 percent, the walk rate has increased to 11.3 percent.
Marco Gonzales (Mariners) vs. TEX, vs. TB
Gonzales is 4-3 with a 4.05 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 21.7 percent strikeout rate and 4.9 percent walk rate. He’s pitching better in May over 24.2 innings with a 2.92 ERA and an 18:6 K:BB ratio.
Jeremy Hellickson (Nationals) @BAL, @ATL
Hellickson is getting the job done. The Nationals have pulled him early, but he has a 2.13 ERA, 0.89 WHIP, 21.8 percent strikeout rate and 4.2 percent walk rate. He has a 49 percent groundball rate, is throwing first-pitch strikes 70.4 percent of the time and has taken advantage of a favorable schedule. The Braves are tough, but Hellickson is in play.
Jake Junis (Royals) vs. MIN, vs. OAK
Junis has been pitching well with a 3.52 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 21.8 percent strikeout rate and 5.2 percent walk rate.
Kenta Maeda (Dodgers) vs. PHI, @COL
The start in Coors Field is a concern, but Maeda has pitched well. Maeda has made four starts in May with one poor one. The last two have been dominant. Maeda pitched 6.2 innings and allowed two hits, no runs, walked four and struck out 12 in a win over the Rockies Wednesday. The prior start, Maeda went eight scoreless innings and allowed two hits, no walks and struck out eight against the Marlins in a win. The Dodgers have a penchant for pulling Maeda quickly, but the last two starts they allowed him to go deeper. In ten games, including nine starts, Maeda is 4-3 with a 3.38 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 30.8 percent strikeout rate and 7.9 percent walk rate. Maeda has a .333 BABIP and his career average is .288. Maeda has a 14.4 percent swinging strike rate, which is above his career average of 12.3 percent.
Brandon McCarthy (Braves) vs. NYM, vs. WAS
McCarthy has been difficult to figure out. Two of his worst outings came against the Marlins and Giants and he had a good game at Coors Field. He has pitched at least five innings in nine of ten starts. He isn’t allowing a lot of hard contact and he pitches well when healthy. The matchups aren’t too daunting. He’s on the lower tier of this group.
Rick Porcello (Red Sox) vs. TOR, @HOU
Porcello has seen his ERA rise from 2.14 to 3.74 over his last few starts, but he’s been good overall. In 67.1 innings, he has a 65:13 K:BB ratio and allowed only five home runs.
David Price (Red Sox) vs. TOR, @HOU
Price tends to scare us with an injury every few weeks and then pitches well. He has a 4.08 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 23.3 percent strikeout rate and 9.3 percent walk rate. In his last three starts, he has pitched 20.1 innings and allowed 13 hits, five earned runs, six walks and struck out 23.
Tyson Ross (Padres) vs. MIA, vs. CIN
Ross has been one of the biggest surprises. He is 4-3 with a 3.13 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 25.4 percent strikeout rate, and a 9.1 percent walk rate. The health is always a question, but enjoy it while he’s healthy with two good matchups at home.
Caleb Smith (Marlins) @SD, @ARI
Smith has pitched well in May and gets two good matchups. Smith has a 3.05 ERA, 1.16 WHIP, 28.6 percent strikeout rate and 10.2 percent walk rate in 20.2 innings in May. The walks are still high, but he’s improved after a 13.2 percent walk rate in April.
Dan Straily (Marlins) @SD, @ARI
Straily struggled in his first three starts coming off the DL, but pitched well in Atlanta and against the Mets the last two outings. In 13 innings, he allowed seven hits, one earned run, walked six and struck out 11.
Vince Velasquez (Phillies) @LAD, @SF
Velasquez is always a risk. He has starts where he struggles to throw strikes and can’t pitch five innings and he has the ability to strike out 12. He has been pitching well lately and a start in San Francisco should help.
Luke Weaver (Cardinals) @MIL, vs. PIT
A couple of bad starts have made Weaver’s stats appear worse than what they are. The pressure is on with someone potentially out of the starting rotation with Alex Reyes back and Carlos Martinez coming back soon. Weaver has responded with three consecutive good starts. In 19 innings, he has allowed 15 hits, four earned runs, three walks and 18 strikeouts.
Garrett Richards (Angels) @DET, vs. TEX
RED LIGHT
Homer Bailey (Reds) @ARI, @SD
A 6.21 ERA, 1.69 WHIP and 13 home runs in 58 innings scream stay away.
Chad Bettis (Rockies) vs. SF, vs. LAD
The surface stats have been good for Bettis, but he’s avoided Coors Field. He has a 2.03 ERA in 44.1 innings on the road. In 15.2 innings at home, he has a 6.89 ERA and gets two starts at home this week with the weather heating up.
Tyler Chatwood (Cubs) @PIT, @NYM
Chatwood can’t throw strikes consistently. He has 40 walks and 41 strikeouts in 45.2 innings leading to a 1.62 WHIP. Until he shows better control, avoid him.
Nate Eovaldi (Rays) @OAK, @SEA
Eovaldi will make his season debut.
Domingo German (Yankees) vs. HOU, @BAL
German threw six scoreless innings and struck out nine in his first start against the Indians. He has struggled in his last two starts, allowing 12 earned runs in 8.2 innings and struggled badly against the Rangers to throw strikes.
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) vs. TEX, vs. TB
Take away the name and you wouldn’t start him. He has a 5.58 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and a 40.3 percent hard hit rate.
Matt Koch (Diamondbacks) vs. CIN, vs. MIA
Koch has a 3.77 ERA and 1.14 WHIP and the matchups are favorable, but Koch doesn’t get many strikeouts with a 14.3 percent rate and has been getting hit hard with a 46.7 percent hard hit rate. He has allowed nine home runs in 43 innings.
Steven Matz (Mets) @ATL, vs. CHC
Matz is coming off six scoreless innings, but he hasn’t shown any consistency. He has a 10.4 percent walk rate and has allowed nine home runs in 42.2 innings. These matchups are difficult.
CC Sabathia (Yankees) vs. HOU, @BAL
After a good start to the season, Sabathia has pitched five innings once in his last three starts. In his last 13.1 innings, he has allowed 19 hits, 13 earned runs, walked seven and struck out 11.
Aaron Sanchez (Blue Jays) @BOS, @DET
Sanchez is a mess. He has a 13.6 percent walk rate and until that changes, he can’t be used.
Other Red Light Pitchers
- Alex Cobb (Orioles) vs. WAS, vs. NYY
- Dylan Covey (White Sox) @CLE, vs. MIL
- Doug Fister (Rangers) @SEA, @LAA
- Daniel Gossett (A’s) vs. TB, @KC
- Chad Kuhl (Pirates) vs. CHC, @STL
- Eric Lauer (Padres) vs. MIA, vs. CIN
- Lance Lynn (Twins) @KC, vs. CLE
- Matt Moore (Rangers) @SEA, @LAA
- Ivan Nova (Pirates) vs. CHC, @STL
- Adam Plutko (Indians) vs. CWS, @MIN
- Brock Stewart (Dodgers) vs. PHI, @COL
- Andrew Suarez (Giants) @COL, vs. PHI
- Brent Suter (Brewers) vs. STL, @CWS
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