Circa Survivor Report: Week 6
CIRCA SURVIVOR WEEK 6: FAVORITES DOMINATE
For the first time this year, NFL sports investors watched betting favorites dominate and finish the week with an impressive mark of 12-2 Straight-up (SU) and 11-3 against the spread (ATS). Over the first five weeks of the season, madness had reigned supreme resulting in an unprecedented amount of the NFL Circa Survivor $1,000 entry fee contest being eliminated.
Nearly half of the remaining 221 contestants backed Philadelphia as a near double-digit home favorite against Cleveland. The most-selected choice, which had lost four times in the first five weeks, finally lived up to expectations and did not deliver the dreaded knock-out blow.
G’night 😌 pic.twitter.com/FFNUDCYDeO
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 14, 2024
Tied at 10-10 at halftime, 49.8% of the pool were relieved when DeVonta Smith sprinted down the near sideline for a 45-yard game-winning touchdown midway through the fourth quarter, giving the Eagles a 20-16 over the hapless Browns.
Green Bay was the second-most selected team as 31 entries selected the Packers to beat Arizona at Lambeau.
Jordan Love SHINES as the @packers move to 4-2 on the season! 👏 pic.twitter.com/wWtGvwAJat
— FOX Sports: NFL (@NFLonFOX) October 13, 2024
After shocking the 49ers last week, the Cardinals were no match for Jordan Love who was sensational on Sunday tossing four touchdowns in a wire-to-wire 34-13 Green Bay victory.
A deeper dive reveals that thanks to favorites dominating the slate, the contest witnessed the top-six most chosen teams all winning for the first time this year as the Ravens, Falcons, Texans, and Buccaneers won by a combined margin of 160-91.
While 97.7% of the remaining entrants were able to advance, five contestants did unfortunately land on the only two favorites to be upset (Tennessee and Jacksonville).
After six weeks, only 216 of the starting 14,266 entries remain alive.
Once again, nothing changes with Cincinnati winning the night game
No one picked Buffalo or NYJ for Monday Night Football, so Week 6 of Survivor has concluded! #CircaSurvivor #CircaSports #SurvivorSweat pic.twitter.com/z9dXwk0WDa
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) October 14, 2024
The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest which forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the season.
In the race for $14,266,000 – the biggest Survivor prize in history – those who have advanced will likely be heavily backing: Buffalo (-8.5) vs Tennessee, Washington (-7.5) vs Carolina, and Cincinnati (-6) at Cleveland.
Navigating the Week 7 terrain will not be easy as after those moderate chalk favorites, 11 of the remaining 12 games (91.7%) have a point spread of 3.5 points or less. While those who survived and advanced can take a deep breath, the relief will not last long as the anxiety will return in just a few days.
Want more evidence that stress levels will reach a fever pitch?
Backing home teams is often looked upon as the best strategy, however in Week 6 road favorites went 8-0 SU and ATS. Looking ahead, four teams (Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Chargers) enter the week as small road favorites.
From a betting perspective, favorites hold a sizable 61-31 SU (66.3%) and 47-42-3 ATS (52.8%) edge. Road teams are 47-42 SU (52.8%) (three international games) while owning a profitable 51-35-3 ATS (59.3%) mark.
“Any. Given. Sunday”. Good Luck!
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