2024 New York Mets Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]
2024 New York Mets Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn's process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport's best.
This 2024 New York Mets Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn's expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
Coming into 2023, the Mets bought a pair of aces who produced more like deuces, eventually leading to both players getting traded to other contenders. New York finished 29 games behind the Atlanta Braves. Since 1988, the Mets only made the postseason six times with two division titles. Their two World Series wins came in 1968 and 1986.
The Mets finished 19th in ERA (4.30), with more weakness in their bullpen (26 wins, 36 losses, 34 saves, and 571 strikeouts over 558.1 innings with a 4.45 ERA – 22nd). New York fell to 20th in runs (717) and 19th in RBIs (692) while offering plenty of power (215 – 10th). They stole 118 bases on 133 attempts (88.7% success rate).
In the offseason, the Mets signed SP Luis Severino, SP Sean Manaea, CF Harrison Bader, 3B Joey Wendle, RP Jake Diekman, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Jorge Lopez. They lost SP Carlos Carrasco, 1B Daniel Vogelbach, 2B Luis Guillorme, and SP Elieser Hernandez to free agency. New York added SP Adrian Houser and OF Tyrone Taylor in a couple of minor trades.
The buzz of the Mets offense has left the building, leaving a foundation of three proven players – 1B Pete Alonzo, SS Francisco Lindor, and OF Starling Marte. The combination of C Francisco Alvarez and 3B Mark Vientos offers the most upside in power from the developing cast of young bats.
New York hopes OF Drew Gilbert can push his way to the majors sometime in 2024 after playing well in his rookie minor league season at High A and AA. The next potential blue-chip prospect is SS Luisangel Acuna, who will start this year at AAA. Both players were acquired via trades with Houston and Texas for Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.
CL Edwin Diaz returns to solidify the ninth inning, but the starting rotation is loaded with risk/reward arms behind newly anointed ace Kodai Senga.
Starting Lineup
OF Brandon Nimmo
Nimmo turned in his first full season with the Mets in 2022 in his seventh year in the majors. Despite struggling in July in batting average (.222), Nimmo had his best production (.271 with 60 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, and three stolen bases over his final 325 at-bats). Surprisingly, his bat had less value at home (.234/39/4/22/1 over 273 at-bats).
Last year, Nimmo set a new top in at-bats (592) for the second consecutive season while showcasing more power (24 home runs) but an overall loss in combined runs and RBIs (157 – 166 in 2022). Based on his walks-to-strikeout ratio, he was a much better player after the All-Star break (28:58 over 250 at-bats) than before (46:92 over 342 at-bats). Nimmo stole all three of his bases in April. His best production month came in June (.255/14/7/18 over 98 at-bats). He ended the season in late September with a right shoulder strain.
His strikeout rate (21.4 – 22.1 in his career) reverted to the league average but a four-year high by a small margin. Nimmo continues to take walks (10.9% - 13.0 in his career). He finished with an improved swing path (flyball rate – 39.2 – 31.7 in 2022 and groundball rate – 41.0 – 50.5 in 2022).
Nimmo’s growth in power was highlighted by a jump in his hard-hit rate (47.9 – 41.0 in his career) and exit velocity (91.8 – 89.4 in 2022). He also set a new high in his barrel rate (9.5).
Fantasy Outlook: New York paid Nimmo last winter, and he rewarded their trust with another productive season. The change in his swing path and a rebound in his average hit rate (1.704) give him an outside chance at hitting 30 home runs in 2024. His contact batting average (.363) also hints at a higher average if he can shave off a few strikeouts. In the early draft season in the NFBC, his ADP (193) ranks 116th for hitters. Nimmo finished 71st in FPGscore (0.52). Based on his last two seasons, he should outperform his price point with a healthy season...
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