2024 Seattle Mariners Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]
2024 Seattle Mariners Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn's process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport's best.
This 2024 Seattle Mariners Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn's expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Mariners have been on the uptick over the past three seasons (88-74, 90-72, and 90-72), but they only made the playoffs once (2022). Before this run, Seattle missed the postseason for 20 consecutive years while never playing in the World Series in the team’s history. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Mariners Preview projects continued success for the upstart young squad.
Their pitching staff ranked third in ERA (3.74), with a tick-down in value from their bullpen (3.48 ERA – 4th). The Mariners relievers had 32 wins, 28 losses, and 44 saves over 548.0 innings with 603 strikeouts. Seattle finished 12th in runs (758), 11th in home runs (210), and 12th in RBIs (728). They stole 118 bases on 148 attempts (79.7).
In the offseason, the Mariners lost OF Teoscar Hernandez, C Tom Murphy, 1B Mike Ford, 2B Tommy La Stella, RP Diego Castillo, and RP Dominic Leone. They signed C Mitch Garver while retooling multiple positions and their depth via trades – 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Luke Raley, OF Mitch Haniger, 3B Luis Urias, C Seby Zavala, and RP Jackson Kowar. In those deals, Seattle shipped out 2B Jose Caballero, 3B Eugenio Suarez, SP Robbie Ray, RP Isaiah Campbell, OF Jarred Kelenic, and SP Marco Gonzales.
The foundation of their starting rotation projects well with division-winning upside and length of winning arms. RP Anthony Munoz and RP Matt Brash have the talent to finish games in the eighth and ninth innings.
Even with a stud, Julio Rodriguez, leading their offense, the Mariners don’t have a difference-maker in any other slot in their batting order but many competitive bats.
Starting Lineup
SS J.P. Crawford
Seattle gave Crawford 160 games to prove his worth in the majors in 2021. His volume of at-bats (619) led to a slight edge in runs (89), and his batting average (.273) beat the league average. His contact batting average (.335) improved in back-to-back years. Most of his power and RBI production came in June (.352/17/3/14/2 over 108 at-bats) and September (.312/22/3/16 over 122 at-bats).
In 2022, Crawford lost momentum with his contact batting average (.288 – .335 in 2021) with a step back in his run rate (29 – 39 in 2021) and RBI rate (11 – 15 in 2021). In addition, his average hit rate (1.381) He started the year with success in April (.360/11/3/9/1 over 75 at-bats) while finishing the season a dismal stats over the All-Star break (.211 with 16 runs, one home run, and 17 RBIs over 209 at-bats). Crawford also struggled vs. lefties (.221.18/3/19 over 154 at-bats).
Last year, the fantasy market saw the best version of Crawford. He found his power stroke (19 home runs), leading to career highs in runs and RBIs (65) while leading the American League in walks (94). In addition, Crawford also had a new top in his contact batting average (.347) with a spike in his average hit rate (1.648 – 1.443 over his previous career). His home run surge came in September (.259/18/7/18 over 116 at-bats).
His approach (strikeout rate – 19.6 and walk rate – 14.7) remains in a favorable area. He finished his highest flyball rate (37.7) of his career, with a jump in his HR/FB rate (12.3 – 4.3 in 2022). Crawford has a spike in his hard-hit rate (36.3 – 30.8 in his career) with some gain in his exit velocity (88.3 – 85.1 in 2022). His rise in power was tied to his higher launch angle (15.3 – 8.9 in 2022).
Fantasy Outlook: Crawford finished last season 85th in FPGscore (-0.65) for hitters. In late January, his ADP (262) in the high-stakes market ranks him 157th for batters and 25th at shortstop. With no speed on his resume and questions about follow-through in power, he is a challenging piece to manage on a fantasy team if he doesn’t bat leadoff and delivers quiet production for multiple months. Possible value for the right team structure...
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