2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]
2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview
Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn's process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport's best.
This 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn's expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.
The Blue Jays have been one of the better teams in the AL East over the past four seasons, leading to three trips to the postseason with a .557 winning percentage. Their last division title came in 2015. After winning the World Series in 1992 and 1993, Toronto missed the playoffs for 21 consecutive years.
They ranked fourth in ERA (3.78). The Blue Jays’ bullpen posted a 3.68 ERA (8th) with 33 wins, 24 losses, 51 saves, and 606 strikeouts over 557.0 innings. Toronto underachieved expectations in runs (746 – 14th), home runs (188 – 17th), and RBIs (705 – 17th). Their base stealers finished with 99 steals over 133 attempts (75.0%).
Toronto parted ways with 1B Brandon Belt, 3B Matt Chapman, 2B Whit Merrifield, and SP Hyun Jin Ryu. They signed P Jordan Hicks and IF Isiah Kiner-Falefa.
The combination of SS Bo Bichette, 1B Vlad Guerrero, and OF Daulton Varsho had a step back in production, leaving the Blue Jays with no difference-maker bats in their starting lineup. Toronto should sign another bat or two by the start of the season.
SP Kevin Gausman, SP Jose Berrios, SP Chris Bassitt, and Yusei Kikuchi gave the Blue Jays 742 winning innings, but their expected ace (Alek Manoah) was one of the worst pitchers in baseball. CL Jordan Romano handled himself well in the ninth inning.
Here is our 2024 Toronto Blue Jays Preview.
Starting Lineup
OF George Springer
Springer ranked 30th in FPGscore (3.99) for hitters in 2022 despite missing 29 games with forearm, ankle, elbow, and knee injuries. Coming into last year, he missed 113 games over the previous two seasons.
In 2023, Springer had his best opportunity (613 at-bats) since 2016. Unfortunately, he finished with a step back in runs (87), home runs (21), and RBIs (72), leading to him sliding to 54th in FPGscore (1.39) despite a career-high in steals (20). His average hit rate (1.570) was well below his previous career path. Springer came to the plate with 405 runners on base but a poor RBI rate (13). His walk rate (8.8) remains an asset while regressing for four consecutive years. Springer continues to have a favorable strikeout rate (18.3).
His bat lost momentum vs. lefties (.242/20/4/14 over 124 at-bats). He struggled in April (.225/14/3/105 over 111 at-bats) and July (.191/10/2/7/1 over 89 at-bats). Springer had his lowest hard-hit (39.9) and exit velocity (88.3) of his career. His flyball rate (35.4) is trending lower, along with his HR/FB rate (12.1) and launch angle (12.0).
Fantasy Outlook: At age 34, his best days appear to be behind him. The Blue Jays have him under contract for the next two years. To have a rebound season, Springer needs the bats behind him in the starting lineup to play much better. His ADP (123) in the early draft season in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in mid-January ranks him as the 71st hitter. I can’t trust his speed, but the rest of his profile has a chance to beat the league average with a rebound in play...
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