Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,600)
This week on our forums at Fulltime Fantasy, I had multiple questions about starting Lamar Jackson vs. the almighty Patriots’ defense. My position was that Jackson would hold value due to his success and opportunity in the run game. The Ravens flashed on the ground early in the game while Jackson added in many completed short passes. In the end, he rushed for 61 yards with a pair of TDs. When added to his value in the passing game (17-for-23 with 163 yards and a TD), it led to a massive performance in Fantasy points (30.26) and an even bigger win for his team in their push for the playoffs and a Super Bowl title. After eight games, Jackson averages 28.42 FPPG) with half of his games delivering 30-plus Fantasy points. Over his previous games, he only averaged 175.75 passing yards per game with two passing TDs and three Ints. His decline throwing the ball was offset over this period thanks to his legs (63/399/4). In Week 6, he beat the Bengals on the ground (152/1) with some value in the passing games (236 yards). Cinci fell to 27th in QB defense after allowing 27.8 FPPG. The Bengals have risk on the ground with QBs gaining 8.8 yards per pass attempt. An excellent matchup, but a game on the road added to a possible let down after taking down the Patriots may lead to a flat showing even in a victory.
Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,000/FD – $8,400)
After missing two games, Mahomes should return this week after making progress with his knee cap injury. Over his first six games, he passed for 2,104 yards with 14 TDs with some value on the ground (16/80). His best value came over the first three games (378/3, 443/4, and 374/3) with strength in his completion rate (71.9). In his next three full games without Tyreek Hill, while battling an ankle issue, Mahomes completed only 56.0 percent of his passes with four TDs. The Titans rank 12th in CB defense (19.29 FPPG) with no team scoring over 27.00 Fantasy points. Tennessee lost one of their starting CBs this week while allowing QBs to gain 7.0 yards per pass attempt. Not the best matchup, especially with the Titans hoping to control the clock with the run game. Mahomes is a great QB with the tools to have success in any game.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,900)
Winston delivered plenty of passing yards in five of his previous six games (380, 385, 400, 301, and 335) with value in two of those contests in TDs (three and four). He sits sixth in QB scoring (23.04). Even with his success, his completion rate (56.5) has been a weakness in his last four games, with just as many TDs (7) and Ints (7). Winston has the second and third-ranked WRs in the NFL, helping his upside in games. Arizona allows the most Fantasy points (28.84) per game in the NFL to QBs with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (DET – 385/3, BAL – 392 combined yards with two TDs, CAR – 261/4, NO – 373/3, and SF – 317/4). Winston will be a top-two choice at QB in Week 10 with his possible downside coming from his success in rushing TDs.
Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6,100/FD – $8,300)
In his first two games back in the starting lineup in Week 8 at home, Brees passed for 373 yards and three TDs, which was a tick above his only other full game (370/2) on the year. In 2018, he passed for 567 yards and four TDs in two games vs. the Falcons. Atlanta allowed the second-most Fantasy points to offenses while ranking 29th in QBs defense (26.40 FPPG) with two disaster games (HOU – 426/5 and ARI – 340/3). His floor should be 300 yards with three TDs.
Aaron Rodgers, GB (DK – $6,600/FD – $8,000)
After two straight strong games (429/5 and 305/3), Rodgers turned his worst game of the year in Week 9 (161/1) even with Davante Adams back in the starting lineup. Other than his success in two games, Rodgers delivered two TDs or fewer in seven games with only one other game with over 300 yards passing (422/2). The Panthers are league average in QB defense (19.68 FPPG) with struggled in two of their previous four games (JAC – 374/2 and TEN – 369 combined yards with two TDs). Carolina allows 6.7 yards per pass attempt with struggles vs. WRs in three of their last four games (17/277/2, 23/296, and 16/244). Green Bay should have success with their RBs in close thus limiting the upside in passing TDs for Rodgers.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,700)
Murray didn’t play well in his last game against a tough 49ers’ defense, but he did save his day with a late 88-yard TD. Over his previous three games, he gained only 640 combined yards with two TDs. Murray is the 10th ranked QB after nine weeks with one impact game (340/3). Tampa ranks 30th in QB defense (27.05 FPPG) with three teams having a high level of success from the QB position (NYG – 364 combined yards and four TDs, NO – 345/4, and SEA – 378/5). Over the past seven games, the Bucs allowed 20 TDs to QBs. Tampa plays well vs. the run, forcing the Cardinals to score via the pass. Murray doesn’t have an impact resume with struggles turning red-zone chances in TDs, but this a winning matchup.
Matthew Stafford, DET (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,900)
Stafford has been a beast in three straight games (364/4, 342/3, and 406/3), pushing him to fifth in QB scoring (24.98 FPPG). He’s on pace for 4,998 yards and 38 TDs and ten Ints while gaining a career-high 8.6 yards per pass attempt. Last year Stafford passed for 510 yards and two TDs in two games against the Bears. Chicago ranks seventh in QB defense (17.39 FPPG), with only one team scoring over 20.0 Fantasy points. Their one disaster game (32.25 Fantasy points) came in Week 7 vs. the Saints with some damage arising from Taysom Hill as a receiver. Against the grain play with more risk than reward.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,500)
Allen continues to lack his expected value in 2018 in the run game (89/631/8) with some growth as a passer. He’s scored between 19.20 and 24.75 Fantasy points in eight of his nine starts while being on pace for 494 rushing yards and eight TDs. Over his previous five games, Allen averaged only 181 passing yards per game with nine TDs while averaging 28 passes per game. The Browns are 20th in QB defense (21.80 FPPG) with two teams having success at QB (BAL – 313 combined yards with four TDs and SEA – 326 combined yards with three TDs). QBs have two TDs or more in seven of eight games against Cleveland. His higher salary and lack of explosiveness will lead to him being a lower percentage own in a neutral matchup.
Jarod Goff, LAR (DK – $6,200/FD – $8,100)
The magic in the Rams’ offense is so 2018. They’ve scored 25 TDs on 90 possession this year, leading to about 27 points per game. Goff is the 12th ranked QB in four-point TD leagues with no games with more than two TDs and three games with over 300 yards passing (517/2, 395/1, and 372/2). His completion rate is only 57.4 over his last four games. The Steelers worked their way to 14th in QB defense (22.35 FPPG), with their biggest failure coming in Week 1 (29.05) and Week 2 (28.20). QBs have 15 TDs against Pittsburgh with 29 sacks. Tough to get excited here.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,500)
The Falcons expect Ryan to return in Week 10 after missing his last game due to an ankle issue. The Rams ended his six-week streak with over 300 yards passing in Week 7. Ryan finished with only 159 yards with no TDs while being sacked five times. Over his first six games, he passed for over 300 yards with three TDs or more in four games. Last year Ryan passed for 751 yards and seven TDs in two games against the Saints. New Orleans inched up to 22nd in QB defense (21.93 FPPG) after improving over the five previous games (10.85, 19.50, 7.25, 22.55, and 12.30 FPPG). The Saints did struggle vs. QBs in two of their first three games (HOU – 308 combined yards and four TDs and SEA – 457 combined yards and four TDs). A sneaky player in Week 10 as most Fantasy owners will look for more upside at QB with more attractive options. New Orleans plays well vs. the run forcing Atlanta to score via the pass.
Jacoby Brissett, IND (DK – 6,000/FD – $7,600)
After leaving last week’s game with a knee injury, Brissett is trending toward starting in Week 10. In four of his seven full games, he passed for fewer than 210 yards. Brissett averages 15.7 FPPG in DraftKings scoring on the road compared to 22.45 at home. Miami ranks 28th in QB defense (24.73 FPPG), with their only disaster showing coming in Week 1 (379/6). A big part of the Dolphins’ failure on defense comes vs. the run. Indy lost their top WR before last week’s game. Miami allows 8.6 yards per pass attempt. The Colts will score on the ground with a good chance of controlling the clock.
Sam Darnold, NYJ (DK – $5,800/FD – $7,200)
A few weeks ago, Sam Darnold returned from his four-week vacation with a bout with mononucleosis. In his first game back on the field, he passed for 338 yards and two TDs vs. the Cowboys. His success helped fuel excitement back into the Jets’ franchise along with Fantasy touts predicting upside over the second half of the year due to New York’s favorable schedule. After two straight losses vs. the Patriots and the Jaguars, Darnold had a circle game on his schedule against the winless Dolphins. His day ended with another loss and only 16.1 Fantasy points in four-point TD leagues while going down a lousy lineup decision for the owners that pivoted off of Kyler Murray or even Lamar Jackson in the season-long games. His completion rate has been strong in three of his previous four games (71.9, 70.0, and 69.2) while tossing four TDs and nine Ints over his last four games. The Giants sit 24th in QBs defense (23.34 FPPG) with six of nine opponents scoring 24.75 Fantasy points or more at the QB position. New York allows 8.9 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 16 TDs. There is upside here based on his matchup, but Darnold isn’t playing well.
Daniel Jones, NYG (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,200)
The Cowboys held Jones in check in Week 9 (210 passing yards with one TD and one Int) while having success as a runner (6/54). Over his previous six games, he averaged 221 passing yards with nine TDs and eight Ints. His best two games (364/4 and 335/4) came on the road. The Jets fell to 19th in QB defense (21.19 FPPG) after fading in their last two games (279/3 and 288/3) after holding QBs to six TDs over their first seven games. Erractic player, but he is the better choice at QB in this game.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $5,200/FD – $7,100)
Early last week, Fitzpatrick looked on his way to an impact day. Unfortunately, he lost his momentum in the second half vs. the Jets. Fitzpatrick finished with a season-high game (288/3) and the Dolphins first win on the year. Over the past four games, his completion rate (65.0) had strength with seven TDs and three Ints. The Colts ranks 10th in QB defense (18.89 FPPG), with two teams having success (LAC – 333/3 and ATL – 304/3). Miami lost Preston Williams last week, which does hurt the Dolphins’ passing game. I don’t see an upside game for Fitzpatrick in this matchup.
Mitchell Trubisky, CHI (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,500)
The two main strikes against the upside of Trubisky in 2019 come in two areas. He no longer has value as a runner (11/46 – 68/421/3 in 2018), and he’s gaining only 5.6 yards per pass attempt. Last week he passed for only 125 yards and no TDs with colossal failure in his completion rate (47.5). Trubisky did make some progress throwing the ball in his two previous games (251/2 and 253). Last year he passed for 355 yards and three TDs in his home game against the Lions with some value as well on the ground (3/18/1). The Lions allowed over 20.0 Fantasy points to QBs in seven of eight games, pushing them to 26th in QB defense (24.48 FPPG). They’ve allowed 12 passing TDs and 1,231 yards passing over the past four games. Chicago has been a bust offensively in 2019 with struggles in all areas. A possible uptick matchup while being tough to trust.
Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $5,100/FD – $7,000)
Allen extended his streak of games with fewer than 235 yards passing to five games. Over this span, he has five TDs and four Ints while averaging 206 yards per game. His only game of value came in Week 3 (261/4). The Packers climbed back to 8th in QB defense (18.22 FPPG) after holding the Chargers to short production in Week 9 (294/0). Two teams have success at QB vs. Green Bay (463/2 and 329/3). The Packers allow 8.1 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 11 TDs. Wrong kind of upside.
Ryan Tannehill, TEN (DK – $5,100/FD – $7,200)
In his three starts, Tannehill went 1-2 with 878 combined yards and six TDs. He passed for over 300 yards in two contests with one game with three TDs. Tannehill averages 8.4 yards per pass attempt with 13 completions over 20 yards. The Chiefs ranks 22nd in QB defense (22.78 FPPG) with four teams having success (JAC – 350/3, DET – 291/3, HOU – 322/3, and GB – 305/3). Kansas City should score while Tennessee tries to control the clock with the run game. If the Titans fall behind early, Tannehill has a chance at a winning score in the daily tournaments.
Baker Mayfield, CLE (DK – $5,000/FD – $7,100)
Mayfield hasn’t thrown more than one TD in any game in 2019. His yards per pass attempt came in at 6.2 yards over his previous four games. He passed for over 300 yards in two games (325/1 and 342/1). On the bright side, his interception streak ended at eight games. The Bills sit 4th in QB defense (14.51 FPPG), with seven of their eight opponents scoring fewer than 21.00 Fantasy points. Buffalo allows 6.1 yards per pass attempt with no team tossing more than one TD. Both sides of this equation say avoid, making Mayfield an avoid.
Mason Rudolph, PIT (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,800)
In his four full games, Rudolph passed for 211 yards per game with seven TDs and three Ints. In his best game, he passed for 251 yards and two TDs. His floor has settled into about two TDs per game while averaging only 31.5 passes per game. The Rams are 13th in QB defense (19.33 FPPG), with two teams having success (TB – 385/4 and SEA – 300/4). LA has ten sacks in their previous two games with QBs tossing only three TDs in their other eight games. May surprise if game flow forces him into 45-plus passes.
Ryan Finley, CIN (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,300)
Finley will make his NFL debut this week after the Bengals drafted him in the 4th round in 2019. Over his previous three seasons at North Carolina State, he passed for 10,505 yards with 60 TDs and 25 Ints with best year coming in 2018 (3,928 passing yards with 25 TDs and 11 Ints). After eight games, the Bengals’ QBs passed for 2,251 yards and nine TDs. The Ravens climbed to 11th to QB defense (18.98 FPPG), with six opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points at QB. Tough sledding should be expected.
