Looking at a 13 game slate today
Weather– 1 game with higher chance of rain at Coors Field, something to keep an eye on looks potential delay. Few games in the 70’s BOS/BAL-wind blowing out 5MPH & PHI/STL.
PITCHERS
Noah Syndergaard
Syndergaard is coming off his best game of the year vs the Reds throwing a complete game and only giving up 4 hits while striking out 10. He faces a Padres team who is hitting .220 on the year and striking out at a 27% clip vs RHP. 2 bats I worry about Machado and Renfore who both hit power RHP. I do think he pitches well enough tonight going 6-7 innings striking out 8 batters and giving up a run or two.
Jose Berrios
The Jays are a team I like to pick on as they have struggle most of this year. Jays bat .217 with a 27% and Berrios should mow through this lineup.
Jon Lester
Lester has pitched well this year posting a 1.73 ERA and 27 Ks over 26 innings. Tonight he faces a Marlins team with little power and on the season has not hit well vs LHP and have been even worse over the past 2 weeks (.178 average and 25% K rate). Wrigley is usually a good park for hitters, but tonight it will be on the colder side with 12 MPH winds blowing in. This will help the pitchers. Looking at 6 innings, 6 Ks and 1 ER.
Caleb Smith
This kid has been pitching lights out this year striking out 45 batters over 36 innings (36% K rate to RHHs, 28% to LHHs). Limiting batters to a .160 average and .235 wOBA allowing 4 HRs over 36 innings. The Cubs have been a mediocre team vs LHP this year and have struck out a 23% K rate. The weather and wind will play in Smith’s favor tonight . Looking at 6 innings 8Ks and 2 ERs.
DARK Horse
Tyler Mahle
Mahle does well holding RHH’s and has a 27% K rate with a 50% ground ball rate. He does struggle vs LHHs and right now the As don’t have many although they are expecting Olson back from injury tonight. I don’t expect much from him yet. Good park for pitchers and looking at 6 innings, 7Ks and 2 ERs.
TEAM/s
Red Sox
The Red Sox disappointed last night and it looks like they still have some struggles vs LHP. Tonight they go against a RHP in David Hess who has only one god start this year. The Red Sox hit much better vs RHP (Betts, Bogaerts and JD Martinez all have over 20 HRs vs RHP over the past year). Add in the fact that a few of the Red Sox bats hit very well in Camden Yards (Betts, Martinez, JBJ). Hess throws mostly fastballs in the 92 MPH range and 7 of the 9 batters crush this pitch type with over a .200 ISO and a few well over .300. The temps will be in the mid 70s with some wind blowing out and these are some nice hitting conditions. The Os bullpen has been a bit better over the past few weeks, but I still think the Red Sox do very well over all tonight. I will have a good share of Red Sox tonight. Should see 3-4 HRs tonight.
– 1-5 should be Benintendi, Betts, Bogaerts ,Martinez, Chavis .
Sneaky– Devers & Bradley Jr.- hits very well in Camden Yards.
Astros
The Astros have been on smoking the ball over the past 14 days (.271 average, .352 wOBA, .221 ISO with 25 HRs). They get another good matchup tonight vs Danny Duffy at home. I hope the roof is open again tonight.
Core– Springer, Altuve, Bergman, Correa.
Sneaky– Jake Marisnick & Tyler White.
Rays
Rays went off last night for 12 runs and should be in for another big night vs mediocre pitcher Taylor Clark. Taylor has posted a 4.50 in AAA.
Core– Brandon Lowe, Pham, Choi, Nate Lowe.
Sneaky– Garcia & Perez
Twins
One of the best power teams this year vs RHP with a .344 wOBA and .232 ISO. They face Aaron Sanchez tonight who has pitched a few decent games, but has also does not strike out many bats and walks a few a game. He faces the Twins a few games ago an allowed 4 runs over 6 innings walking 4 batters and giving up 2 HRs.
-Kepler my favorite with Polanco and Rosario coming in next.
-Cruz and Cron in a good spot as well with Buxton sneaky.
BATS
Catcher
Michale Perez
Jonathan Lucroy
Max Stassi
First Base
Tyler White- value
Brandon Belt
Hunter DoZier- expensive but matches up well vs McHugh. DoZier 💣 tonight.
Second Base
Altuve
Lowe
Schoop
Adrianza- value
Third Base
Nolan Arenado
Alex Bregman
Candelario
Fletcher- value
Shortstop
Trevor Story
Xander Bogaerts
Jorge Polanco
Kieboom- value
Outfield
Martinez/Betts /Benintendi
Springer
Kepler
Harper- Hudson getting smashed by lefties.
Rosario/Cruz
Castellanos- RvR go boom.
Marisnick
Hererra- value
JBJ-value breaks slump tonight with a 💣.
Buxton- value.
