It is February 1st and we are looking at a 5 game slate starting at 7pm tonight.
*Knicks traded away Porzingas, Burke, Tim Hardaway Jr. & Courtney Lee to the Maverick yesterday for DeAndre Jordon, Dennis Smith Jr. & Wesley Matthews. As of this morning no news is out on whether the new Knicks will be active tonight and if they are not it leaves them very limited vs the Celtics. Luke Kornet is expected back, so Kornert, Trier, Dotson, Vonley, Robinson, Allen , Hezonja & Thomas. I have interest in the cheaper players since I do not think this game stays close if DSJ, Jordan and Matthews do not play. Also, consider some of the Celtics bench players like Baynes, Thies, Wanamaker and even Brown and Hayward as GPP punts. Due to the potentially limited Knicks team the Celtics could sit a player or two for rest. Something to monitor.
DvP chart over the last 2 weeks. Hawks are Rockers are tied for allowing the most FPs over this time-frame. Since losing Capella to injury the Rockets have dropped to 2nd to last vs centers(Locked in Jokic) right behind the Jazz. Gobert is a good defender on the court, but for some reason the Jazz are allowing the most FPs(Dedmon or Alex Len), Few other spots that stand out is Grizzles vs PGs ranked 25th(Kemba Walker). Heat vs PFs 28th (Jerami Grant)
QUESTIONABLEs/WHAT-IFs
Gary Harris- is listed as questionable and if he sits Monte Morris & Malik Beasley become solid plays. If Harris ends up playing then he is in play at his price.
Mike Conley & Jarren Jackson Jr. are both listed as questionable. If Conley sits out then Shelvin Mack is in a good value play, but if Conley plays then he is in play(last 3 games 48 or more FPs). If Jackson sits out then JaMychal Green and Ivan Rabb are worth a look.
Chris Paul & Nene Hilario are both listed as questionable for tonight. If Paul sits out then you lock in Harden & consider Eric Gordon. If Paul does play he is definitely worth a look at his price, especially if he gets a minutes increase to 30.
Steven Adams is listed as questionable, but he did participate in practice yesterday. If he does sit then Norlens Noel becomes an excellent play again. Also consider Jerami Grant.
POINT GUARD
Russell Westbrook
Kemba Walker
I had some interest in Walker this morning due to the fact the Grizzlies have been getting crushed by opposing PGs over the last 2 weeks. Now that Conley has been ruled out I like Walker a lot more. Walker also tends to play better at home.
Monte Morris
Played well with Murray out. Also put up 37 FPs vs the Rockets in 24 minutes earlier this year.
VALUE
Shelvin Mack
Conley did not go through shoot around and could potentially sit out tonight. If he does, Shelvin Mack becomes an excellent value play. Conley has been ruled out. Mack in play.!
Tyler Johnson
Johnson has put up 20 or more FPs in 3 straight games. He is only 4.2K on DK and gets a solid matchup as the Thunder have been mediocre defending the PG position and a bit worse vs SGs.
SHOOTING GUARD
James Harden
Harden still putting up 70 FPs with Paul back in the mix. Price is high and worth the raw points. I am leaning towards playing Jokic, but Harden not a bad play at all.
Jeremy Lamb
I will have either Lamb or Walker in most of my lineups tonight. This is a good spot for the Hornet guards as the Grizzlies have allowed the 5th most FPs.
Eric Gordon
Gordon is taking between 15-22 shots a game and playing 37 minutes. Solid value play.
Alonzo Trier
Trier is much cheaper on FD tonight.
Dennis Schroder- only if Fergeson sits out.
VALUE
Jalen Brown
Playing a bit more aggressive as of late. Could get extra run vs Knicks.
Justin Holiday
Holiday should play close to 40 minutes tonight if game is close. Usage should be up a bit with both Conley and Anderson out. He is only 4.1K.
SMALL FORWARD
Paul George
Joe Ingles
The Hawks are allowing the most FPs to opposing teams on this slate and the 2nd most to opposing SFs. Ingles is cheap enough and could easily exceed value tonight,
VALUE
Mario Hezonja
Hezonja has played around 30 minutes a game over the last 3 and could easily see that tonight with a bit higher usage. He has already put up some 30 FP performances as of late.
POWER FORWARD
Kenneth Faried
Faried has been an Manimal! He is playing over 30 minutes and in play under 7K.
Paul Milsap
This is a good spot for the Nuggets big men as the Rockets have struggled defending PFs and C as of late. Milsap is around 5K and has 6-7x upside in this matchup.
Jerani Grant
Grant plays a ton of minutes and gets an elite matchup vs the Heat who are allowing 55 FPs to opposing PFs (28th in NBA).
VALUE
Jarren Jackson Jr. or JaMychal Green
These guys are both in good spots, but Jackson is listed as questionable. If Jackson plays he is worth a look at his price vs the Hornets. If he sits then Green is the play.
Luke Kornet
Kornet is likely returning tonight and could find himself back in the starting lineup. Solid price of 4.3K on DK.
CENTER
Nikola Jokic
Jokic is the top play at center tonight for a few reasons. First, he is on a tear as of late dropping 65 or more FPs in 3 of his last 4 and 69.8 & 76.5 in 2 of those. Second, he has the 2nd best matchup on the board tonight as the Rockets are ranked 29th vs opposing centers over the past 2 weeks allowing 66 FPs. Also, over the past 11 games Jokic has put up 5 triple/doubles. Locked in tonight. With Murray off the floor Jokic picks up a +5% usage rate.
Marc Gasol
Conley has been ruled out along with Kyle Anderson. With these 2 off the floor Gasol picks up a 5% boost in usage. This is also the team he put up a triple double against earlier this year.
VALUE
Mitchell Robinson
Robinson has posted 20 or more FPs in 3 straight games. He could see extra run tonight.
Dewayne Dedmon or Alex Len
I dont think this game stays close so I am leaning toward Len here. They are both in good spots as the Jazz have allowed the 2nd most FPs to opposing centers over the past 2 weeks. Len make a low ownership punt.
RISK/REWARD
Kadeem Allen
Damyean Dotson
Knicks will be limited tonight and Dotson has shown 10x upside at his price if he gets solid minutes.
Bruno Caboclo
No Anderosn tonight for the Grizzlies. Cabaclo is 3.4K and has put up 20 ore more FPs in 2 of the last 3 games. He should get over looked with all the Knick value. Nice pivot play.
Ivan Rabb
Rabb should see some extra run tonight and just posted 10.10 in 23 minutes last game.
Kyle Korver
Michael Kidd-Gilchrest
