7 game slate & weather looks good for all games.
Pitching
Patrick Corbin
Corbin and Cole are the top priced arms in the slate. They have very similar stats over the past 30 days. I prefer Corbin due to the better matchup as the Giants have been terrible as of late (.194 average and 25.4 % K rate over past 7 days). Great ballpark for pitchers and Corbin has pitched well vs them in the past.
Jon Gray
Gray has pitched well since coming back up from AAA. Over the last 30 days Gray has posted a 3.15 ERA over 34.1 innings while striking out 31 batters. In that timeframe he pitched five games and received four quality starts and picked up two wins. I like the matchup tonight against the Angels, who have a .200 average and 27.7 % K rate vs RHP over the last seven days. He is the arm I have the most interest in tonight. Great price with solid upside.
I am looking at 7 innings, 8 Ks and 2 ERs
Sam Gaviglio
Gaviglio has pitched well in his last two starts vs Orioles. 14.2 innings, 15 Ks and 6 ERs. 26.6 & 19.9 DK points. Solid stats for his 7k price. I played him last time out vs the Os and it paid off. We should see a similar performance tonight with 6-7 innings 7ks and 2-3 ERs.
Risk/Reward Arm:
Brett Anderson- pitched very well over last 30 days: 1.65 ERA over 32.2 innings with 3 QS over a 5 game timeframe. Good park for pitcher and he is a ground-ball pitcher 55%.Two players that worry me vs Anderson – Gattis and hot hitting Marwin Gonzalez, but expect him to go 5-6innings with 5Ks and 2-3 runs.
Stacks
Toronto BlueJays
The BlueJays have scored 34 runs, hit 14 HRs and have. .263 average over the last 7 days. Hess pitched well against The Jays last time, but I do not trust him tonight vs a hit team in Camden Yards. Morales has homered in 7 straight games. Smoak .379 wOBA and .253 ISO vs RHP, Granderson all tree should be popular. Grichuk. Diaz who both have reverse split power vs RHP along with McKinney would be a more contrarian way to go.
Mets & Cubs Game
The wind is blowing out 17 MPH, which is a big boost for bats. Focus on the fly ball hitters like Mets-Bautista 44%, Reyes 45%, Flores 48% and Frazier 38%. Cubs- Schwarber 40%, Baez 36%, Murphy and Rizzo 38%.
Catcher
Wilson Ramos- Strasburg struggled in his first starts back and does not pitch as well in the heat. Past catcher for Strasburg as well.
Evan Gattis
Value- Matt Weiters
First Base
Justin Smoak or Morales
Paul Goldsmidt
Value- Luke Voit- hitting well as of late
Second Base
Yoan Moncada
Daniel Murphy
Value- Neil Walker
Third Base
Nolan Arenado
Miguel Andujar
Jose Reyes
Shortstop
Aledyms Diaz- going yard tonight
Trea Turner
Marwin Gonzalez
Value- Jose Rondon- sneaky reverse splits play. .433 wOBA and .387 ISO. Tanaka allowed 15 HRs to RHH’s this year. If Rondon does does not play I like Tim Anderson.
Outfield
Charlie Blackmon & Carlos Gonzalez
Aaron Hicks- crushing LHP with a .290 ISO.
Bryce Harper or Juan Soto
David Peralta
Randal Grichuk
Daniel Palka- hitting well as of late and like lefties in Yankee Stadium.
Billy McKinney
Value- Joey Bautista, Adam Engel, Jason Heyward
