2018 Green Bay Packers: Davante Adams a Top-Ten Wide Receiver?

Senior Fantasy Football Expert Shawn Childs wonders whether Davante Adams is worth a first-round draft pick now that Jordy Nelson is no longer with the Green Bay Packers and Aaron Rodgers is back under center!


QB Aaron Rodgers – Over ten seasons as the starting QB for the Packers, Aaron has 94-48 record with one Super Bowl title. He set career highs in completions (401) and passing attempts (610) in 2016 while delivering the second season of his career with 40 TDs or more. Only once in his career has Rodgers passed for over 4,500 yards (2011 – 4,643). Aaron has a great TD to Int ratio (226:46) over the past seven years. Last year Aaron was one pace for only 4,418 passing yards and 43 TDs. During the previous three seasons, Rodgers needed to settle for too many short passes leading to weaker results in his yards per pass attempt (2015 – 6.7, 2016 – 7.3, and 2017 – 7.0), which was well below his previous success (8.2, 8.3, 9.2, 7.8, 8.7, and 8.4). In 2018, his depth at WR behind his top two options will be a work in progress while adding viable top TE in Jimmy Graham. Aaron has a floor of 4,500 yards and 35 TDs while adding some value with his legs. Rodgers should be top QB drafted again in almost all leagues in 2018.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 43 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank: July 13 – QB1 | August 1 – TBD
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Running Backs

RB Aaron Jones – Over four seasons at UTEP, Aaron rushed for 4,114 yards with 40 TDs and 646 yards receiving yards with 71 catches. He dominated in his senior season (2,006 combined yards with 20 TDs and 28 catches) while gaining 7.7 yards per rush. Jones had a run of 40+ yards in eight different games with his best value coming in his short area quickness. Aaron likes to lull defenders into the center of the field at the line of scrimmage before using his lateral quickness to gain his edge. His style has more excitement and creativity than Williams. He needs to prove himself in pass protection to win any value in the passing game. Aaron gained 470 yards on 90 touches in 2017 with four TDs and nine catches. He had six runs over 20 yards with one earning more than 40 yards. With starting snaps in Week 5 and Week 7, Jones finished with 272 combined yards with two TDs and four catches. A knee injury led to minimal playing time over the last nine games of the season. His explosiveness should lead to him earning the most touches on early downs. Possible 225 touches for 1,100+ yards with five to seven TDs. I don’t expect growth in the passing game with his risk in pass protection and Ty Montgomery having the best skill set in the passing game.

Update: 7/27/18 > The NFL suspended Aaron Jones for the first two games in 2018 for failing a drug test. His missed time will open a small window for Jamaal Williams to gain early-down snaps. Jones will be discounted in drafts due to his missed games creating a possible buying opportunity.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 107 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17– RB40 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – RB30 | August 1 – TBD

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RB Ty Montgomery – In his second season in the league, Ty had rushed for 457 yards on 77 carries with three TDs while securing 44 catches for 348 yards, but he failed to stay healthy in 2017 leading to 446 combined yards with four TDs and 23 catches over eight games. He averaged 5.9 yards per rush and 7.9 yards per catch in 2016 while showing regression in both areas last year (3.8 and 7.5). His size (6’0” and 216 lbs.) gives a fighter’s chance at regaining the lead role this year, but Montgomery needs to improve as a short yardage runner. Over four seasons at Stanford, Ty caught 172 passes for 2,125 with 15 TDs highlighted by his junior year (61/958/10). This season Montgomery should be the top option in the passing game while offering a change of pace value in early down. If he stays healthy, Ty could catch 60+ balls with a chance at 75 to 100 runs on early downs leading to about 1,000 combined yards. Heading into the summer, Montgomery is the third best WR on the roster.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 124 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – RB37 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – RB41 | August 1 – TBD

RB Jamaal Williams – Williams had an up and down career over five seasons at BYU. As a part-time runner in his freshmen year, Jamaal had 1,090 combined yards with 13 TDs and a career-high 27 catches. His role expanded slightly the next season (1,358 combined yards with seven TDs and 18 catches). A knee issue and a suspension led to a short junior year (635 combined yards and four TDs and eight catches) and a missed 2015 season to get his head back on straight. In rotational role last year, Williams had a career-high 1,455 combined yards with 12 TDs and seven catches. He runs hard with a spin move and stiff arm, but his speed isn’t strong enough to finish a long run and his quickness only last until the second level of the defense. He’ll do his damage between the tackles with enough wiggle hit the corner when the play breaks right. In his rookie season, Jamaal gained 818 combined yards with six TDs and 25 catches highlighted by three straight strong starts (376 combined yards with five TDs and 13 catches). Over the last eight games of the season, Williams gained only 3.7 yards per touch with surprising value in the passing game (21/224/2). Grinder type back who will need an injury or two to deliver starting stats. Williams may emerge as the goal line back. Overall, he may have the highest upside due to his ability to play on all three downs.

Update: 7/27/28 > With Aaron Jones on the sidelines for the first two games, Williams slips into the RB1 slot in Green Bay. He should split time with Ty Montgomery out of the gate. Most Fantasy owners have Jamaal listed as the top RB to own on the Packers in 2018 based on his early ADP.

Update: 8/17/2018 > Green Bay lost Jamaal Williams to an ankle injury in their second preseason game, but it looks to be minor.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 81 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – RB55 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – RB54 | August 1 – TBD

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Wide Receivers

WR Davante Adams – The goal of a Fantasy owner early in any draft should be finding the players with the best opportunity while understanding each player upside in scoring. Aaron Rodgers is one of the top QBs in the game which produces plenty of TDs to WRs. With Jordy Nelson no longer on the team, Adam should naturally take over his role and opportunity in the Packers’ passing attack. Over the last two seasons, Davante has two strong years (75/997/12 and 74/885/10) highlighted by his ability to deliver TDs. I expect at a minimum a 20 percent growth in chances setting the stage for 90+ catches for 1,200+ yards and a chance at 15+ TDs. Just think of the success of Jordy Nelson in 2014 (98/1519/13) and 2015 (97/1257/14) with much younger and fresher legs. I’ll rank him higher than most out of the gate, which should tell you he’s a great value early in the 2018 draft season.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 17 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – WR9 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – WR9 | August 1 – TBD

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WR Randall Cobb – Cobb is going to be an interesting Fantasy player in 2018. Fantasy owners will draft him as an upside WR2 in the Packers’ offense while dismissing his fade over the last three years. Randall played great in 2014 (91/1287/12), which paints an exciting ceiling. Unfortunately, separation has been an issue over his last three seasons. Over this span, Cobb has 205 catches for 2,092 yards and 14 TDs or 4.7 catches for 47.5 yards and 0.32 TDs per game. His catch rate (67.2) remains strong over the last three years while gaining only 10.2 yards per catch. Last season he didn’t have one game with over 85 yards receiving. Even with fade in 2017, his lack of production falls more in the poor play of Brett Hundley. I’ll set his value at 80+ catches for 1,000 yards with acceptable value in TDs. Randall should be drafted as WR2 in PPR leagues.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 87 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – WR33 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – WR41 | August 1 – TBD
Randall Cobb

WR J’mon Moore – Over the last two seasons at Missouri, Moore caught 127 passes for 2,094 yards and 18 TDs. Most of his highlighted showed him working the outside of the field on screens, speed routes, or fades. J’mon didn’t post an elite time (4.6) at the 2018 NFL Combine in the 40-yard dash, but his play speed looks deceiving to defenders. Drops can be a problem and one that will earn him a bench role early in his career. His game is what Green Bay lacks at WR on the outside (big play and scoring ability). A possible flash player in 2018 while working as a deep threat in the passing game.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 217 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – WR106 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – WR102 | August 1 – TBD

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WR Equanimeous St. Brown – Over the last two years, St. Brown caught 91 passes for 1,476 yards and 13 TDs. His game is built more to use the middle of the field on crossing routes while showing the ability to play out of the slot or on the outside. His stats look boring in college, but he didn’t have the best talent throwing him the ball. Equanimeous needs to improve his route running and his in-game motor. His release and strength him a chance to surprise in the right role in his rookie season.

ADP: July 17 – Undrafted | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – WR116 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – WR109 | August 1 – TBD

WR Marquez Valdes-Scantling – Over four seasons in college, Valdes-Scantling caught 119 passes for 1,832 yards and 12 TDs with his best success coming in his senior year in 2017 (53/879/6). Marquez has elite speed (4.37) while being a hands catcher. He adjusts to the ball well in the deep passing game while showing the ability to create easy throws when defenders give him too much cushion off the line of scrimmage. Valdes-Scantling needs to prove he can win tightly contested balls in the NFL and beat press coverage. I expect him to be a matchup problem in four WR sets for the Packers.

ADP: July 17 – Undrafted | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – Undrafted | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – Undrafted | August 1 – TBD

WR Geronimo Allison – In his first two seasons in the NFL, Allison has 35 catches for 455 yards and two TDs on 61 targets. He has two games strong games (4/91/1 and 6/122) in his 25 games career. Last season Geronimo saw minimal playing time from Week 4 to Week 13 (two catches for 21 yards on eight targets). If the Packers thought more of his upside, they wouldn’t have added three WRs in the 2018 NFL Draft.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 228 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – WR128 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – WR127 | August 1 – TBD

Tight Ends

TE Jimmy Graham – Graham regained his scoring ability (10 TDs) in 2017, but he had a career-low catch rate (59.4) while only gaining 9.1 yards per catch. Over his three seasons in Seattle, Jimmy caught 170 passes for 2,048 yards and 18 TDs on 265 targets. His opportunity was at least 50 percent lower than his best years in New Orleans. Graham has 64 TDs over his last 84 games, which will undoubtedly upgrade the scoring ability by the TE position in Green Bay. Last season the Packers completed 56 passes for 627 yards and two TDs on 94 targets to the TE position. Jimmy will be a top two scoring receiver for the Packers in 2018. At a minimum, Graham should catch 60+ balls for 750+ yards and eight to ten TDs with more upside if he regains some of his big-play ability and chemistry with Aaron Rodgers. Last year he played through an ankle injury for most of the season.

ADP: July 17 – Pick 61 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (PPR): July 17 – TE6 | August 1 – TBD
Position Rank (Non-PPR): July 17 – TE6 | August 1 – TBD

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About Shawn Childs 770 Articles
Shawn Childs has been a high stakes Fantasy baseball and football player since 2004 where he had success in his first season (three titles and $25,000 in winnings). In early years of the high stakes market in Fantasy baseball, he was ahead of the curve in player evaluation, draft value, and free agent bidding setting up four top-five finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship. He has four AL-only Auction titles, one NL-only title, and five Main Event titles plus an overall title in 2012 at RTFBC (netted $10,000). This success led to an induction into the NFBC Baseball Hall of Fame. His success in the high stakes market led to a career in providing Fantasy Baseball and Fantasy Football content. On the football side, he’s competed and won in all different formats – auctions, draft championship, main events, and high-dollar leagues. He won 2nd place overall in the 2014 Most Accurate Salary Cap Expert contest at FantasyPros.As a dual-sport player, it was natural to transition to the daily games where he is a “swing for the fences type of guy.” Childs has appeared in one FanDuel NFL Live Final and one DraftKings NFL Live Final, a season-ending tournament which led to a couple of chances to win over $1,000,000.