ACES
- Gio Gonzalez (Nationals) @TB, @PHI
- J.A. Happ (Blue Jays) vs. HOU, vs. DET
- Mike Clevinger (Indians) @STL, @OAK
- Jon Lester (Cubs) @LAD, vs. MIN
- Charlie Morton (Astros) vs. TOR, @TB
- James Paxton (Mariners) @BAL, vs. KC
- Ross Stripling (Dodgers) vs. CHC, vs. COL
- Justin Verlander (Astros) vs. TOR, @TB
GREEN LIGHT
Jake Arrieta (Phillies) vs. NYY, vs. WAS
Arrieta hasn’t pitched as good as the surface numbers indicate. He has a 3.42 ERA and 1.23 WHIP, but has a 16.6 percent strikeout rate and eight percent walk rate. He’s getting by with a 55.6 percent groundball rate and 27.4 percent hard hit rate.
Michael Fulmer (Tigers) vs. OAK, @TOR
Fulmer is 3-6 with a 4.17 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 20.9 percent strikeout rate and 8.4 percent walk rate.
Kevin Gausman (Orioles) vs. SEA, vs. LAA
The problem with Gausman is the chances to win are slim. He’s on a bad team and facing two good teams. Gausman’s biggest problem is home runs with a 1.53 HR/9 and a 54.9 percent first-pitch strike rate.
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Zack Godley (Diamondbacks) @MIA, vs. SF
Godley has been one of the biggest disappointments this season. He has two good matchups this week and if he can’t come though this week, it could be the end of his mixed league value. He has pitched well in three straight starts including one in Coors Field. In 18.1 innings, he allowed 14 hits, six earned runs, walked eight and struck out 21.
Cole Hamels (Rangers) vs. SD, vs. CWS
Hamels has been lucky in some aspects, but he has two favorable matchups and is likely getting traded soon. He has a 3.41 ERA (5.13 FIP), 1.23 WHIP, 23.4 percent strikeout rate, 9.2 percent walk rate and 1.75 HR/9.
Felix Hernandez (Mariners) @BAL, vs. KC
Hernandez hasn’t pitched well, but he has two excellent matchups against two of the worst teams in baseball. Hernandez has pitched well in his last two starts against the Red Sox and Yankees, pitching 12 innings, allowing 14 hits, three runs, two walks and 12 strikeouts.
Jakob Junis (Royals) vs. LAA, @SEA
Junis has been hurt by the home runs. He has allowed 19 home runs in 91.1 innings. He has a 21.4 percent strikeout rate, 6.2 percent walk rate and a 1.23 WHIP.
Reynaldo Lopez (White Sox) vs. MIN, @TEX
Lopez has been erratic. He is 2-5 with a 3.59 ERA (4.49 FIP), 1.29 WHIP, 16.9 percent strikeout rate and 10.2 percent walk rate. Lopez has allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts.
Seth Lugo (Mets) vs. PIT, @MIA
Lugo has pitched well, except for the last two starts. He struggled in Arizona and poor defense hurt him in Coors Field, where it’s difficult to throw the curve, a key pitch for Lugo. He has a 2.85 ERA, 1.04 WHIP, 27.3 percent strikeout rate and 5.6 percent walk rate. He gets two favorable matchups.
Lance Lynn (Twins) @CWS, @CHC
In June over 23.2 innings, he has a 1.90 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 23.5 percent strikeout rate and 13.3 percent walk rate. The walk rate is still too high, but he has improved, getting more ground balls and limiting the home runs.
Kenta Maeda (Dodgers) vs. CHC, vs. COL
Maeda was on a roll before going on the DL with a hip injury. He walked five in his last start, but can provide two good starts. He has a 3.84 ERA and a 26.6 percent strikeout rate.
Tyler Mahle (Reds) @ATL, vs. MIL
Mahle has pitched better lately and has done well when he keeps the ball in the ballpark. He has a 1.67 HR/9. In June, Mahle has pitched 22.1 innings and allowed 19 hits, four earned runs, walked 11 and struck out 20. He has a 1.61 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Those came in matchups against the Padres, Royals, Rockies and Tigers.
Frankie Montas (A’s) @DET, vs. CLE
Montas isn’t getting many strikeouts and putting up good numbers. He has pitched well against the Padres, Royals twice and Diamondbacks and struggled against the Astros. The Indians matchup is daunting, but in deeper formats he’s in play. He is 4-1 with a 2.41 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 15.1 percent strikeout rate and 7.2 percent walk rate. He has a 44.3 percent hard hit rate, so he’s not going to help long term.
Freddy Peralta (Brewers) vs. KC, @CIN
Peralta has produced two excellent starts and struggled in the other, but he has looked good. In 15.2 innings, he has allowed six hits, four runs, walked eight and struck out 25.
David Price (Red Sox) vs. LAA, @NYY
It’s a tough week ahead, especially with the Yankees but it’s difficult to sit Price. In his last eight starts, he is 6-1 with a 2.86 ERA and a 50:15 K:BB ratio. He is 8-5 with a 3.81 ERA with a 1.21 WHIP and despite the velocity being down a bit, he’s not allowing a lot of hard contact.
Tyler Skaggs (Angels) @BOS, @BAL
Skaggs was scratched from his Thursday start with hamstring tightness, so make sure he’s good to go on Monday or Tuesday.
Jameson Taillon (Pirates) @NYM, @SD
Taillon has two excellent matchups and is 4-6 with a 4.03 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 22.5 percent strikeout rate and 6.4 percent walk rate.
Vince Velasquez (Phillies) vs. NYY, vs. WAS
There’s definite risk here. The Yankees start could be a problem, so he’s more in play for deeper formats. On June 8, Velasquez allowed 10 runs in 3.2 innings against the Brewers. He has a 4.82 ERA (3.78 FIP), 1.28 WHIP, 28.5 percent strikeout rate, and 8.5 percent walk rate.
RED LIGHT
Nate Eovaldi (Rays) vs. WAS, vs. HOU
He has allowed eight home runs in 29.1 innings and four home runs in six innings against the Astros in his last start.
Jonathan Loaisiga (Yankees) @PHI, vs. BOS
He has walked six in 8.2 innings and the Red Sox could be a problem.
Joey Lucchesi (Padres) @TEX, vs. PIT
He came back from the DL last week and allowed four runs, three hits and walked two in 1.2 innings, so he might not be healthy yet.
Shelby Miller (Diamondbacks) @MIA, vs. SF
Miller is someone to add in deeper formats and even though he has two good matchups, it’s risky to send him out without seeing him back in the majors. He had dominant rehab starts and was hammered in one. He reportedly reached 95 miles per hour.
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Other Red Light Pitchers
- Chad Bettis (Rockies) @SF, LAD
- Andrew Cashner (Orioles) vs. SEA, vs. LAA
- Matt Harvey (Reds) @ATL, vs. MIL
- Derek Holland (Giants) vs. COL, @ARI
- John Lamb (Angels) @BOS, @BAL
- Dan Straily (Marlins) vs. ARI, vs. NYM
- Jordan Zimmermann (Tigers) vs. OAK, @TOR
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