PGA DFS Strategy From Shawn Childs
After researching the player for this year’s Masters, it time to put the pieces together to make a run at the million dollar top prize. My budget for this event will be about 20 teams, which forces me to take a few positions on players. In this type of event, it’s important to build a core. It’s almost like building a Pick-6 ticket at the horse track.
To cash, I most likely need all of my players to make the cut unless multiple higher percentage owned players struggle. At the Masters, the top 50 players qualify for the weekend plus anyone within ten shorts of the lead.
If a Fantasy owner uses one of the top players, the backend of his roster will have plenty of gambles plus the high salaried player almost has to win. In a normal event, the lower tier players have more depth. This week the player pool is extremely week below $7,000. If I decide to use Dustin Johnson, I’ll have $38,600 for my remaining players or $7,720 per player. This approach will leave a Fantasy owner with many options that won’t make the cut or even place in the top 20.
Here’s my plan for the 2018 Masters:
I’m going to use three players as the foundation of my core. My top player at the top end is Jason Day ($9,800). He looks poised to make a run here, and his salary ($9,800) is much more favorable than 2016 ($11,600). It appears DraftKings wants to allow Fantasy owners to build stronger lineups in 2018 based on the top end salary structure.
My biggest question with Day is if I want to ride him as a key or filter in some of the other elite players at his similar price point.
When reviewing the players, I’m trying to find value in price based on a player’s skill set. His form is important, but I’m willing to be more flexible for a top 15 player in the world.
The top two players based on world rank and Masters’ salary for me is Hideki Matsuyama ($8,400) and Henrik Stenson ($7,800). Matsuyama is the sixth-ranked player with three straight top 11 finishes at the Masters. He is a must own at Augusta plus his salary is $1,500 lower than 2017.
I’m not a huge fan of Stenson at this event, but I do have a weakness for veteran European players at the majors. Henrik was trending in the right direction at the Masters from 2013 to 2016 (18th, 14th, 19th, and 24th) before missing the cut last year. In past years, he’s been one of the favorites with a much higher salary (2016 – $9,600 and 2017 – $9,500). Stenson played well in his last two events (4th and 6th), but his salary was locked in before last week’s tournament. He’s the 15th ranked player in the world, and he will be overlooked this week.
I just can’t get away from Justin Rose at the Masters. He looks to be a value as well based on his salary ($9,200) and his history at Augusta. Over the last seven seasons, Rose finished 11th, 8th, 25th, 14th, 2nd, 10th, and 2nd while being 30 strokes under par over 28 rounds. He’s the fifth-ranked player in the world with a win and seven other top 10s over his last ten tournaments.
If I go with the big four, I’ll need to find my outs with $14,800 of salary. I like my chances with this position in money.
If I ride Rose, Matsuyama, and Stenton, I gain in two areas. First, I diversify my front end stud options to increase my chance of rostering the winning player. Second, if my top end range of players is wide enough, I can improve the player pool at the backend with the right down at golfer one.
The first goal at DraftKings golf is maintaining my backroll, which requires getting as many golfers to play on Saturday and Sunday. Here’s are my top six options to pair with three team core if I don’t use Jason Day as the fourth key player:
- Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
- Rory McIlroy ($9,900)
- Phil Michelson ($9,500)
- Jon Rahm ($9,300)
- Paul Casey ($8,800)
- Bubba Watson ($8,700)
Dr. Roto’s Last Minute Visionary Masters PGA DFS List
3 Players I Love
Jordan Spieth: Dominates the Masters and started to round into form in Houston
Paul Casey: Has always played well here and his form has been outstanding
Justin Rose: Is the bridesmaid ready to become the bride?
3 Players I Hate
Patrick Reed: has tons of ability but can’t ever seem to come up big in a Major.
Charl Schwartzel: People will use him since he’s won here before, but his recent form has been awful.
Ian Poulter: Great Course History, but rarely do players play well two weeks in a row.
Justin Thomas: People always overlook him and spend on Dustin and Spieth
Jon Rahm: Has anyone even given him a shot to win this year?
Dustin Johnson: You have to take a stand somewhere and I have decided to fade him at his extravagant price.
Sleeper Pick to Win The Masters
Tommy Fleetwood: He is the best player in Europe that few Americans know.