2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

This 2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

In their second season as the Guardians, Cleveland slipped to third in the AL Central for the first time since 2015. They’ve missed the postseason three times over the past five years. Their last trip to the World Series came in 2016. The Indians won the World Series in 1920 and 1948. Their streak without a championship stands at 75 years. Our 2024 Cleveland Guardians Preview predicts if they’ll turn it around this season.

They finished 27th in runs (662), last in home runs (124), and 28th in RBIs (622). Cleveland stole 151 bases in 187 attempts (80.7%). Their pitching staff ranked 10th in ERA (3.96). The Guardians had 37 saves, 24 losses, and 47 saves from their relievers, with a 3.79 ERA (9th) and 588 strikeouts over 586.2 innings.

In the offseason, Cleveland moved on from SP Lucas Giolito, SP Zach Plesac, SP Noah Syndergaard, RP Reynaldo Lopez, OF Kole Calhoun, and C Mike Zunino. They signed C Austin Hedges and P Ben Lively. The Guardians acquired OF Estevan Florial and RP Scott Barlow in two minor deals. 

Their starting rotation has three developing arms – Gavin Williams, Tanner Bibee, and Triston McKenzie, each offering ace upside. Shane Bieber has plenty of experience, and Logan Allen proved to be a serviceable backend arm last year. The ninth inning should be in good hands with the right arm of CL Emmanuel Clase.

The foundation of their offense lacks impact power and star players. Cleveland must find one outfielder with a more rounded skill set to push OF Myles Straw into a bench pool. I also question if OF Steven Kwan offers championship talent. The development of C Bo Naylor, 1B Kyle Manzardo, and OF Estevan Florial are the keys to moving up the AL Central standings in 2024.

Starting Lineup

OF Steven Kwan

In 2021, between AA and AAA, Kwan added more length to his hits (12 home runs over 296 at-bats) while continuing to hit for average (.328). In addition, he took 36 walks with a low strikeout rate (9.0). 

Cleveland gave Kwan 460 at-bats in his rookie season (2022) in the leadoff position, and he responded with a .328 batting average, 74 runs, five home runs, 44 RBIs, and 17 stolen bases. Over this span, his on-base percentage (.385) fell short of his college career (.431). He finished with a higher walk rate (9.7) than strikeout rate (9.4). 

Last year, Kwan only offered fantasy value in runs (93) and steals (21). His only month of success came in July (.330/16/3/13/2 over 106 at-bats). He didn’t hit a home run over his final 213 at-bats.

He continues to have a weak average hit rate (1.380), highlighted by his low ranking in exit velocity (86.0 – 365th) and hard-hit rate (18.8 – last). His barrel rate (1.1) had to be the weakest in baseball. 

Fantasy Outlook: Kwan finished the year ranked 87th by FPGscore (-0.92). His three-category skill set (BA, runs, and SBs) makes him a challenging foundation piece to a fantasy team in roto formats. In the National Fantasy Baseball Championship, he has an ADP of 204 as the 121st hitter drafted. Based on his price point, Kwan appears to be a value for some team structures. I’ll sit this dance out. He should have a rebound in batting average while needing more production in power and steals to help fantasy teams.

2B Andres Gimenez…

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