Articles by Matt Brandon

Season Long – All Sports

Week 14 NFL Player Props

December 7, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 14 NFL Player Props For the fifth consecutive week, we had a .500 record (5-5). We lost .75 Units and are now at +3.25 Units as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Despite still being in […]

Week 14 NFL Player Props

For the fifth consecutive week, we had a .500 record (5-5). We lost .75 Units and are now at +3.25 Units as we enter the home stretch of the regular season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign with Week 14 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 14 NFL Player Props!

Geno Smith UNDER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-115)

I’m taking the under on Geno Smith’s passing touchdowns this week. Why? Because the numbers don’t lie, and they’re stacking up against the Seahawks quarterback.

First, let’s talk about Geno. Sure, he’s racking up the passing yards—he’s among the NFL’s best in that department. But when it comes to turning those yards into touchdowns, it’s been a struggle. In 12 games this season, Geno has thrown just 13 passing touchdowns, with only five of those coming on the road. He’s managed multiple touchdown games just twice this year, and last season wasn’t much different—20 touchdowns in 15 games. So, this isn’t a fluke; it’s a pattern.

Now, let’s flip the script and talk about Arizona’s defense, because wow, they’ve been bringing the heat. Over the past six games, the Cardinals have allowed only four total passing touchdowns. Even more impressive? At home, they’ve pitched a defensive shutout in three straight games—no passing touchdowns, no rushing touchdowns, nothing. In fact, across six home games this year, they’ve given up just three passing touchdowns total.

Put it all together, and the data points to one conclusion: this under is a smart play. Sure, betting unders can be nerve-wracking, but with Geno’s trends and Arizona’s defensive dominance, I feel good about this one.

Sam Darnold…

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Patrick Mahomes
Season Long – All Sports

Week 13 NFL Player Props

November 28, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 13 NFL Player Props For the fourth consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to an added sprinkle on Ladd McConkey’s receiving yardage line, we managed to profit in Week 12. It […]

Week 13 NFL Player Props

For the fourth consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to an added sprinkle on Ladd McConkey’s receiving yardage line, we managed to profit in Week 12. It wasn’t technically one of the plays last week but since it was mentioned in the Justin Herbert writeup, I’m going to count it. And the plus-odds bet on Mike Evans’ receiving yardage was a nice little victory. Still, we only gained +.45 Units and are now an even +4.0 Units on the season. Despite still being in the green, it’s time for us to catch fire like the first few weeks of the campaign with Week 13 NFL Player Props!

We are due for a big week and it might come during the festive holidays. For Thanksgiving, we will discuss some Turkey Day props, as well as a few over the weekend. In Week 13, instead of providing you with my favorite six or seven props, I will list my top 10 player props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL Player Props!

Derek Carr OVER 214.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Derek Carr’s passing yards line for Week 13 against the Rams looks attainable based on a few key metrics and trends this season. Not to mention, he helped us triple up a few weeks ago so we’re going back to the well despite the lack of weapons surrounding him.

Consistent passing volume has helped Carr as the Saints are typically playing from behind. Carr has surpassed this line in 8 of his last 10 games. This consistency underscores his role in the Saints offense, which leans heavily on his arm, especially in matchups where they face defensive vulnerabilities in the secondary. Which leads me to my next point.

The Rams have had some serious defensive struggles in 2024. The Rams have allowed over 243 passing yards per game this season, ranking among the league’s bottom-tier pass defenses. Their secondary has struggled to contain opposing quarterbacks, giving Carr an advantageous matchup.

And although Carr doesn’t have the weapons that he once started the season with, the Rams’ defense has shown a tendency to allow massive big-chunk plays, providing Carr with the opportunity to rack up yards efficiently. Not to mention, the game script should favor the veteran signal-caller eclipsing this line. The Rams’ offense can score quickly with Matthew Stafford, Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp, which would force the Saints to keep up. This dynamic increases Carr’s likelihood of exceeding his yardage line as the Saints try to stay competitive.

All of these factors and trends point towards Carr surpassing this line. Don’t forget that he has easily eclipsed this prop line in three consecutive games since returning from a mid-season injury. This bodes well for Carr on Sunday. Smash…

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Travis Kelce
Season Long – All Sports

Week 12 NFL Player Props Justin Herbert, Travis Kelce Lead the Way!

November 23, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 12 NFL Player Props For the third consecutive week, we dropped a 3-3 record with our player props wagers. However, due to a triple-unit bet on Derek Carr who practically surpassed his line in the first half, we managed […]

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 10 NFL Player Props

November 9, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 10 NFL Player Props After a 3-3 week resulting in -.25 Units, we’re up 2.5 Units on the season. I know we haven’t been hitting it big like our red-hot start to the season, but it’s time to get […]

Week 10 NFL Player Props

After a 3-3 week resulting in -.25 Units, we’re up 2.5 Units on the season. I know we haven’t been hitting it big like our red-hot start to the season, but it’s time to get on another win streak. We’re still in the green on the year, so let’s get down to business and identify the juiciest Week 10 NFL Player Props to target.

Always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 10 NFL prop bets!

Derek Carr OVER 201.5 Passing Yards (-110)

On paper, things aren’t exactly looking rosy for Derek Carr. He’s lost his most explosive playmaker, Rashid Shaheed, and he’ll likely be without Chris Olave this week due to a concussion. To make matters worse, starting slot receiver Bub Means has landed on IR. Woof!

But don’t write off the Saints’ offense just yet! Even though they’re down three key wideouts, weapons are still in play. The tight end group is sneaky good, with three pass-catchers who bring different skill sets to the table. Take Juwan Johnson, for instance—he’s practically a wide receiver in a tight end’s body and has racked up 40+ receiving yards in three of his last four games.

Then there’s Alvin Kamara, who’s still a receiving dynamo out of the backfield, putting up 55 and 60 receiving yards over the last two weeks. Plus, the Saints have had more time to integrate new faces like Marquez Valdes-Scantling and Cedrick Wilson, so Carr isn’t completely out of options.

And very importantly, Carr is in a very favorable matchup. Atlanta struggles to pressure the quarterback (dead last in sacks per game) and allows a league-worst 70.85% completion rate. Carr has played the Falcons three times since joining New Orleans, averaging a solid 269 yards per game, including a 239-yard outing in Week 4.

So, while the Saints’ recent injuries and their loss to Carolina might have some people worried, Carr’s passing line this week seems like an overreaction. It’s a lower number than it should be, and Carr has plenty of tools left to work with against a vulnerable Falcons defense…

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dak prescott ceedee lamb
Season Long – All Sports

Week 9 NFL Player Props Dak Prescott & CeeDee Lamb Lead the Way

October 31, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 9 NFL Player Props For the first time this season, we had back-to-back weeks in the red. However, with a 3-4 record in Week 8, we are still 29-26 on the season and +2.75 Units. After a red-hot beginning […]

Week 9 NFL Player Props

For the first time this season, we had back-to-back weeks in the red. However, with a 3-4 record in Week 8, we are still 29-26 on the season and +2.75 Units. After a red-hot beginning to the season, we’ve come back to earth. That said, it’s time to find FullTime Fantasy‘s best-valued Week 9 NFL Player Props so we can build some momentum in the back half of the season.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 9 NFL prop bets!

Dak Prescott OVER 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-125)

I don’t usually dabble in this market, but this one’s just too tempting to ignore! Dak Prescott has been on a roll, throwing for multiple touchdowns in 4 of his last 5 games, and now he gets a golden matchup against Atlanta.

The Falcons’ defense has been generous to opposing quarterbacks lately, allowing multiple touchdown passes in each of their last four games. And with Dallas’ run game not providing much support, I’m expecting Dak to be slinging the ball all over the field this Sunday.

Plus, this game has the highest total of the day, meaning we’re likely in for a high-scoring, back-and-forth affair. We only need Dak to find the end zone twice through the air, and with everything lining up just right, this bet looks like a winner!

Matthew Stafford…

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 8 NFL Player Props Jordan Love, Drake London Lead the Way

October 25, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 8 NFL Player Props Woof! After a blistering red-hot start to the season, Week 7 was a dumpster fire! A 1-6 record drops us to 26-22 on the season as we gear up for Week 8. We are still […]

Week 8 NFL Player Props

Woof! After a blistering red-hot start to the season, Week 7 was a dumpster fire! A 1-6 record drops us to 26-22 on the season as we gear up for Week 8. We are still in the green on the season (+3.5 Units) so let’s put last week behind us and find the best-valued for FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 8 NFL Player Props for the upcoming slate of games.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 8 NFL prop bets!

Jordan Love OVER 255.5 Passing Yards (-110)

Since returning from injury, Jordan Love has been a bit of a mixed bag—showing glimpses of brilliance and moments of struggle. He’s averaged just 222 passing yards against tougher defenses like Houston and the Rams but lit up weaker secondaries like Arizona and Minnesota with 323.5 yards per game.

This week, Love has a prime opportunity to thrive against a Jacksonville Jaguars defense that ranks 31st in passing yards allowed, giving up a generous 285 yards per game. The Jags’ defense is vulnerable, allowing a 68% completion rate while relying heavily on man coverage, something Love is poised to exploit.

With four receivers capable of creating separation, Love should have no trouble finding open targets. Plus, Jacksonville’s lack of pressure—boasting the lowest blitz rate and 7th lowest QB pressure rate in the league—means Love will have plenty of time in the pocket to carve up the field and pile on the yards. Expect a big game from J-Love!

Jameis Winston…

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 7 NFL Player Props

October 18, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 7 NFL Player Props For the fifth time in six weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were three Dalton Schultz yards away from an even better week. Still, in Week 6, we turned out a 4-3 […]

Week 7 NFL Player Props

For the fifth time in six weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were three Dalton Schultz yards away from an even better week. Still, in Week 6, we turned out a 4-3 record. Due to our triple-unit bet on Jayden Daniels, we finished Week 6 up 1.85 units. On the season, we are now 25-16 (+8.85 Units). Let’s keep the momentum rolling with our Week 7 NFL Player Props!

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 7 NFL prop bets!

Geno Smith OVER 24.5 Pass Completions (+100)

The Seattle Seahawks’ defense has been struggling, and this Sunday they’ll try to contain an Atlanta Falcons offense that’s been on fire, scoring 74 points in the last two games. Spoiler: I don’t expect Seattle to pull it off, which means Geno Smith will be airing it out to keep the Seahawks in the game.

Falcons’ opponents have completed 26+ passes in three of their last four games, and Atlanta’s defensive strategy seems to be: bend, don’t break. They play zone coverage at the third-highest rate in the league, allowing the highest completion percentage, but also limiting teams to the fifth-lowest yards per attempt and sixth-lowest air yards per attempt.

On top of that, Atlanta’s pass rush is almost non-existent, generating pressure at the second-lowest rate in the NFL (14%), which means Geno Smith should have plenty of time to sit back and dink-and-dunk his way down the field.

Smith, by the way, leads the NFL in pass attempts and completions, even though he ranks 27th in average depth of target among starting QBs. He’s more than happy to chip away methodically, and it’s working—he’s topped this completion mark in five straight games, averaging 31 per game during that stretch.

At even money, I’m all in on Geno topping this number again.

Derrick Henry…

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Season Long – All Sports

Week 6 NFL Player Props

October 11, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 6 NFL Player Props For the fourth time in five weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were one Terry McLaurin dropped pass from a 6-1 slate but we’ll have to suffice for a 5-2 record in […]

Week 6 NFL Player Props

For the fourth time in five weeks, we had a profitable weekend of wagering. We were one Terry McLaurin dropped pass from a 6-1 slate but we’ll have to suffice for a 5-2 record in Week 5. Still, due to our triple-unit bet on Jayden Reed, we had a massive +3.8-Unit week and are now +7.0 units and 21-13 on the season as we gear up for Week 6 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 6 NFL Player Props!

Jayden Daniels OVER 223.5 Passing Yards (-110)

This game boasts a 51.5-point total, the second-highest on the slate. The Commanders’ rookie QB is off to a scorching start, and the numbers back it up. The Ravens have been giving up an NFL-worst 304 passing yards per game to opposing quarterbacks, and Daniels has exceeded expectations four games in a row with 226, 254, 233, and 238 yards against the Giants, Bengals, Cardinals, and Browns, respectively.

Offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury has been dialing up game plans that make life as smooth as possible for Daniels, and there’s no reason to think that will change in this matchup. Expect the rookie to stay hot and capitalize on a vulnerable Ravens defense! Baltimore put up a massive 41 points in Week 5 so expect Daniels to air it out in an attempt to keep up with Lamar Jackson and company. I may even sprinkle an extra unit on this wager as I expect Baltimore to shut down the run but struggle in the secondary.

Jordan Love…

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Jordan Love Green Bay Packers
Season Long – All Sports

Week 5 NFL Player Props

October 4, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 5 NFL Player Props Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we […]

Week 5 NFL Player Props

Week 4 was our first unprofitable week of the season. After beginning the year with three consecutive successful betting weekends, a 2-5 record last week brought us down to +3.2 Units. Let’s see if we can get back in the winning column with our Week 5 NFL Player Props. We are now 16-11 in the young season.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 5 NFL Player Props!

Jordan Love OVER 257.5 Passing Yards (-110)

The Los Angeles Rams’ defense has struggled across the board, but their pass defense is especially concerning. They’ve allowed the most yards per completion (12.6) and air yards per attempt (10.3) in the league, and now they face Jordan Love, who ranks fourth among all quarterbacks in average depth of target.

After missing Weeks 2 and 3, Love returned last Sunday, shaking off a slow first half to rack up 389 passing yards by the end of the game—following up his 260-yard performance against the Eagles in Week 1. Love and the Packers are primed for another big outing, and they get a bonus boost from the Rams’ defensive scheme. According to Pro Football Focus, the Rams run zone defense at the eighth-highest rate in the NFL, but they rank 28th or worse in defensive success rate, yards per reception, and yards allowed per coverage snap when in zone.

Green Bay excels against zone defenses, and their wide receivers—Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, and Romeo Doubs—are thriving. All three are in the Top 25 in yards per catch vs. zone and in the Top 30 in yards per route run against zone coverage, making them a dangerous trio for this matchup.

The only real threat to this passing total is if the Packers open up a huge lead and go run-heavy, but with their defense also struggling, this game could stay competitive enough for Love to keep airing it out all four quarters…

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Jets Rookie RB Breece Hall
Season Long – All Sports

Week 4 NFL Player Props

September 26, 2024 Matt Brandon

Week 4 NFL Player Props Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to […]

Week 4 NFL Player Props

Week 3 is in the books and we are cooking after a third consecutive profitable week. After beginning the season 9-4 (+6.3 Units), we produced a 5-2 record in Week 3 (+2.6 Units) due to a double-unit bet on Jauan Jennings after a pivot from George Kittle (who was a surprise inactive on Sunday). On the season, we are now 14-6 (70% conversion rate) and +8.9 Units! Let’s see if we can keep the momentum going with our Week 4 NFL Player Props.

Remember to always odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best value for these props. With that in mind, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 4 NFL prop bets! Like last week, I’ll be featuring one Thursday Night Football wager since our Week 3 TNF Anytime Touchdown bet cashed!

Lamar Jackson OVER 51.5 Rushing Yards (-110)

Coming off a heavy workload, Derrick Henry may take a bit of a backseat this week, with Lamar Jackson poised to steal the spotlight—just like we saw in Baltimore’s season opener. And given the context of this matchup, it makes sense. The Bills’ front seven has shown some vulnerability, especially when it comes to stopping the run, despite their impressive 3rd-place rank in Run Defense Win Rate. A closer look reveals they sit at a lowly 26th in PFF’s Run Defense Grade, signaling potential cracks in their armor.

Lamar has cleared this line in two of three games this season. The two times he did it, he decimated the line with 122 rushing yards in Week 1 and 87 rushing yards in Week 3. He’s averaging 84.6 rushing yards per game through three weeks of the season and is going to need to use his legs to keep the chains moving.

What makes this matchup even more intriguing is Buffalo’s defensive scheme. Their tendency to anchor linebackers in coverage while relying heavily on just their front four to generate pressure leaves them exposed, especially against mobile quarterbacks like Jackson. Baltimore’s offensive line, which ranks above league average in both Run Block Win Rate and PFF Grade, is well-positioned to keep Buffalo’s pressure at bay. With minimal resistance up front, Lamar Jackson should have plenty of opportunities to take advantage of open rushing lanes…

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