What’s up Scout crew!? I thought I’d do a quick recap on the night of fights. If you missed the fights on Saturday, you missed a very historic night. Yes, we had a handful of decisions, but the 25th anniversary card did in fact deliver in the end. We had an amazing debut by newcomer Maycee Barber, the cowboy came through, and an all-time bad beat in the main event.
Let’s get our recap on and rip into the pre-fight write up. I’d like to start with my predictions on the matchups compared to what resulted.
Jung -105 $8500 vs Rodriguez -115 $7700
Prediction:
The Korean Zombie will look to make it two in a row, since returning from his four-year hiatus, mainly due to serving military duty, as he takes on Yair Rodriguez. As you may remember, Yair got murked by Frankie Edgar, Zombie’s original opponent on this card until getting injured. Shortly after, Yair was momentarily fired by Dana White and crew, for what was perceived and being too selective on opponents. What a way to return though. How about headlining the 25th anniversary show back from where it all started, against a freakin’ Korean Zombie! This will be an amazing match up and it really could go either way. I expect both to come out fast, looking to land and hurt their opponent right out of the shoots. Zombie is typically a tad sloppy in the standup, and is willing to take some shots, to get in his own. (Hence the nickname). Yair is more of the flashy, unorthodox/throw weird shit type of fighter, that has been known to catch the judges eye. Zombie will have the advantage on the ground with his high-level judo and jiu-jitsu, if it ends up that way. Mental edge to the Korean Zombie as well for me. The guy delivers in these high pressure/bright light matches, in comparison to Rodriguez. I was front row for Rodriguez vs Bruce Leeroy in Salt Lake, and he literally almost lost that fight. In that fight, he was a -350 favorite, and ended up edging out a split decision that really could have gone either way. After that fight, yes, he worked over the legend BJ Penn, who was well beyond his fighting prime. Then came Frankie Edgar. Edgar completely took Yair to the cleaners. He hurt his eye early on, and it again showed his lack of mental game.
This could be a toss-up match. Yair has the better chin and will be the more technical of the two. But the Korean Zombie can steal those rounds, and just has that ability to suck his opponent into some crazy exchanges, that typically go his way. Both are game in DFS, but I side with the Korean Zombie to get the nod.
RESULT: Yair Rodriguez wins via KO with 1 second left in the final round.
I’m crushed for the Korean Zombie. Both guys put on an amazing performance, but you have to feel for the Zombie. He was up on the scorecards and would have won via decision if he survived that last second elbow out of nowhere by Yair.
I mentioned both were good for DFS, but I bet the Korean Zombie to win. Definition of a BAD BEAT. Anyone touting their pick on Yair to win got very lucky. Congrats to you, but thank the gambling gods every night the rest of the year.
Perry -200 $8900 vs Cerrone +170 $7300
Prediction:
This will be fireworks. If you haven’t followed the drama I’ll try and make it quick. Perry joined Jackson/Wink, the gym Cerrone has been at for years. When this fight was announced, Mike Winklejohn let Cerrone know that he would be training the new guy Perry, and not Cerrone for the Denver matchup. All hell broke loose and Cerrone ended up putting the gym on blast, comparing it to a puppy mill. Cerrone went on to say that it turned into a gym where anyone could just walk in off the street, and spar with big-named professionals, which wasn’t a practice at the gym back in the day. Alright, enough of that. So long story short, Perry has been at the gym, getting the inside scoop on all of Cerrone’s “tells” and training with his old fam. Cerrone has been up at his BMF ranch getting ready, and a handful of guys have been making the trek to get him ready. Yair even made his way up to the ranch to get some work in with Cerrone. Cerrone though, I’m just not sure where his head is at. Not long ago, he had his first child, which is a huge mental game changer for anyone, not matter what you say. Also, back at the end of August, Cerrone went on the Joe Rogan podcast, dropped the hammer on his old gym, but also discuss in length how he’s been experimenting with mushrooms and more as of late. That caught my attention. Earlier this week, Cerrone was biting his tongue, but ended up stating that this will be his last fight at 170, and will be moving back down to 155 to chase the belt before he wraps up his career. Now regarding Perry. The dude is a savage. The guy eats, sleeps, etc. his MMA career. He looked even more improved in his last outing against Felder. Remember in that fight, Felder broke his arm trying to catch himself from a Perry slam to the mat, and ended up taking a bunch of damage across the rounds. Perry has that KO power and if he gets through to Cerrone’s chin, it’s over. Perry is HUNGRY and it reminds me of Cerrone year’s back. Catch my drift? I think they have the right favorite here.
RESULT: Cerrone wins via SUB RD1 4:46
Perry lands that right hook, it’s over. But he’s young and for some reason went off game plan and paid for it. Perry went to take it to the ground and Cerrone took his arm for it. What an amazing moment for Cowboy Cerrone, who now becomes the winningest fighter in UFC history, as well as the leader in fight finishes.
De Randamie -175 $8800 vs Pennington +155 $7400
Prediction: I’m taking a shot on the dog Pennington. de Randamie has fought three times in like five years. Two of her W’s were against opponents who never snagged a victory in the UFC. Pennington is coming off a title shot against Nunes, where she survived almost five full rounds before losing via TKO. Prior to that she rattled off four victories in a row, against Andrade, Correia, Phillips, and Miesha Tate. Pennington may be the underdog in this match, but at this price, it’s got some value.
RESULT: De Randamie wins via U-DEC
Pennington missed weight and made comments about “women stuff.” I guess we need to start capping you know what now as well. Pennington kept the pressure on but just couldn’t find her groove and paid for it. Bad call, and after the weight miss, I personally should have pivoted my play. I hope you did.
Moises +130 $7500 vs Dariush -150 $8700
Prediction: Moises coming in on two weeks’ notice against a very hungry Dariush. Dariush has been on a three fight skid, and is coming off that weak ass :42 second KO loss to Alexander Hernandez. Remember when Hernandez faked the touch of gloves to start the fight and got off first. I wasn’t a fan. Dariush to play it safe and control his way to a decision win, or possibly sneak another submission.
RESULT: Dariush wins via U-DEC
Exactly how I called it above. We can move on.
Barber -425 $9400 vs Cifers +325 $6800
Prediction: I think the UFC has Maycee Barber on the main card strategically and they are looking to introduce her to the viewership here. I watched an interview with Cifers from this week and she looks extremely nervous already.
RESULT: Barber wins via KO/TKO RD2 2:01
I actually ended up betting Barber via TKO/KO +320 and cashed. I usually plug in some plays after weigh ins so hit me up if you ever want the scoop above and beyond the write up. All plays are always posted win or lose on my Twitter.
Pena -170 $9300 vs Trizano +150 $6900
Prediction: Line should be tighter in my opinion. Both undefeated and can finish a fight at any time. Pena should leverage his reach advantage, control the distance if he wants the nod. Trizano a tad more experienced and could rip off a win if he stays out of the sub danger. Pena’s fight to lose. I always like to gamble with a couple dogs and this is one of them. Tread lightly. This is more of a DFS
play here looking to find some salary room. No bet wager.
RESULT: Trizano wins via S-DEC
BOOM. Called the dog. At the time of the write up and had no bet, but ended up finding a number I liked post weigh ins.
Yoder -155 $8600 vs Cooper +135 $7600
Prediction: Yoder should expose Cooper’s 20% takedown defense, and possibly lock in a sub.
RESULT: Yoder wins via S-DEC
Close fight but the write up prediction crossed the line. We’ll take it.
Skelly -105 $8400 vs Moffett -115 $7800
Prediction: Should be a good back and forth scrap. Skelly should have the size and be able to end up in more dominate positions than Moffett across three rounds, and edge out a decision.
RESULT: Moffett wins via SUB RD2
Result of the fight was controversial and actually went to instant replay. Skelly was very professional in defeat. He won the first round, but he got locked up in the scramble in the 2nd round. Hopefully they match these guys up again.
Ramos -1000 $9500 vs Gunther +650 $6700
Prediction:
RESULT: Ramos wins via SUB RD1
No reason this match should have been made. Complete route.
Smith -230 $9100 vs Erosa +190 $7100
Prediction: Smith via TKO/KO is live. The dude throws bombs.
RESULT: Smith wins via TKO/KO RD1
Exactly how I called it.
Morales -105 $8000 vs Shelton -115 $8200
Prediction: More output from Shelton should score points with the judges. He should be the busier guy, but it could end up close.
RESULT: Shelton wins via S-DEC
Exactly how I called it.
De La Rosa -255 $9000 vs Sanchez +215 $7200
Prediction: Like one week notice for Sanchez. He’ll need to keep in standing if he wants to pull this one off. I suspect De La Rosa to lock in some sub attempts, possibly getting the tap to kick off the card.
RESULT: De La Rosa wins via S-DEC
Great fight and our prediction crossed the line.
Worth a look on DFS:
STARS: Ramos, Smith, Perry, Barber
Ramos, Smith, Barber completely delivered. All over 100 pts and Barber scored the most points on the card at 112.
SCRUBS: Pennington, Trizano, Yair
Trizano and Yair came through as great dog plays.
Below is my value chart and DFS score outcome.
- As mentioned, Barber led all fighters with 112 points.
- Five fighters cleared 100 points, which is our goal every fight.
- Only seven fighters hit value.
With the bad beat in the main event, the optimal line up for the night had a big shift. One second later, we have a different lineup at the top. But here was the best on the night.
Betting Plays:
Korean Zombie -115 L
Pennington +150 L
Skelly -107 L
Perry/Barber/Ramos/Smith +175 L
Will add more after weigh ins.
Rodriguez/Jung O2.5 rounds +100 W
Cerrone/Perry U1.5 rounds +120 W
Trizano by DEC +260 W
Barber by KO/TKO/DQ +320 W
Shelton -130 W
+4.77 UNITS
Back with another card this Saturday, November 17, as the UFC heads to Argentina! Catch me on Twitter at @Y2CASEY or in the Slack.
Later!
Casey
