Circa Survivor Report: Week 7
CIRCA SURVIVOR WEEK 7: FAVORITES DOMINATE ONCE AGAIN
Aftter a an early season of upsets that lefft NFL bettors reloading their mobile accounts, favorites dominated for the second consecutive week going 10-5 Straight-up (SU) and 9-7 Against-the-Spread (ATS). For further context, over the last two weeks favorites have helped square investors build their bankrolls with a marks of 22-7 (SU) (75.9%) and 19-10 (ATS) (65.5%). The Circa Survivor Report: Week 7 breaks down that impact on the remaining field.
The turbulent NFL landscape over the first five weeks of the season eliminated nearly 97% of the NFL Circa Survivor $1,000 entry fee contestants. However, with favorites holding serve at a high level only a handful of the remaining contestants have been knocked-out over the last two weeks.
In Week 7, slightly over one-third of the remaining 216 contestants backed the Rams as an eight-point home favorite against Las Vegas. The most-selected choice in the contest, which has lost four times this season, performed as entrants anticipated.
Just won, baby. pic.twitter.com/16dfbx3qD8
— Los Angeles Rams (@RamsNFL) October 20, 2024
Holding a slim 7-3 late in the first half, 37.5% of the pool were relieved when CB Kam Curl sprinted down the far sideline for a 33 yard scoop-and-score touchdown only a minute before halftime. That gave the Rams a 14-3 lead they would never relinquish. Although Los Angeles was unable to cover the touchdown-plus spread, the 20-15 victory was more than enough to help 81 entrants move on to Week 8.
Washington was the second-most selected team as 56 entries selected the surging Commanders to beat the struggling Panthers.
3-0 at home #RaiseHail pic.twitter.com/7HadT2tUGu
— Washington Commanders (@Commanders) October 20, 2024
Despite losing star QB Jayden Daniels to a rib injury early in the first half, Washington remained perfect (3-0) at home dismantling Carolina 40-7 at Northwest Stadium. The Commanders, who lead the NFL in scoring (218 points), own the best scoring differential of any club in the league (+66).
While 99.1% of the remaining entrants were able to advance, two contestants were tripped up when Atlanta and Minnesota were upset at home by Seattle and Detroit, respectively.
After seven weeks, only 214 of the starting 14,266 entries remain alive.
Wow. That’s a whole lot of green. Good plays from the Circa Survivor contestants this week!
No one put any entries on the night games tonight or MNF, so that’s a wrap for Week 7!#CircaSurvivor #CircaSports #SurvivorSweat pic.twitter.com/vRzAwiciyV
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) October 20, 2024
The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest which forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the course of the season.
In the race for $14,266,000 – the biggest Survivor prize in history – those who have advanced will likely be heavily backing: Detroit (-11.5) vs Tennessee, Baltimore (-8.5) at Cleveland, LA Chargers (-8) vs New Orleans, Kansas City (-10) at Las Vegas and Denver (-7.5) vs Carolina.
The Week 8 betting landscape will offer contestants a plethora of solid chalk favorites. In fact, 8 of the 16 games have a point spread of 6.5-points or more.
Backing home teams is often looked upon as the best strategy. However, in Week 6 road favorites went 8-0 SU and ATS. Looking ahead, four teams (Cincinnati, Philadelphia, Baltimore and Chargers) enter the week as small road favorites.
From a betting perspective, favorites hold a sizable 69-36 SU (65.7%) and 55-49-3 ATS (52.9%) edge. Road teams are 54-49 SU (52.4%) (four international games) while owning a profitable 60-40-3 ATS (60%) mark.
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