Average Draft Position, or ADP, is a useful tool that powers the perceived values of players throughout the preseason draft process. Selecting players after their ADP nets positive value, while drafting players too early can really hamper roster construction.
Not all ADP lists are created equally but utilizing Fulltime’s Advanced ADP gives fantasy fans the opportunity to compare normal ADP lists to that of successful high-stakes FFWC drafters. It can also show players that the pros are letting slide further in drafts, which can be an advantage in casual drafts.
Here are some players that the 2021 Fulltime season-long projections favor and why they make good values.
Carson Wentz (QB) Indianapolis Colts
There’s no denying that Wentz was borderline awful at times last season, but there’s a really good chance that he ends up being one of the biggest rebound players of 2021. First, Wentz is now reunited with Frank Reich, who coaxed a top-3 fantasy season (fantasy points per game) out of Wentz in 2017.
Secondly, a lot of Wentz’s struggles last season can be blamed on a lousy receiving corps and injury-ravaged offensive line. Indianapolis has an emerging young group of skill position players and an elite group of blockers that will give Wentz more time, keep him upright, and result in fewer turnovers.
Finally, looking at our strength of schedule tool, Wentz and the Colts have a top-10 schedule for fantasy quarterbacks, which includes six games against the subpar secondaries in the AFC South and a playoff run at Arizona and versus the Raiders.
Austin Ekeler (RB) Los Angeles Chargers
Seemingly an anomaly among top-level NFL players, Ekeler has endeared himself to the fantasy football community and has even co-hosted a live weekly fantasy video series with Yahoo’s Liz Loza. As inspiring as that is, Ekeler might be just as good on the field.
Ekeler was limited to 10 games a year ago but averaged 16.5 PPR points per contest, which ranked 13th. There are some decent auxiliary pieces behind Ekeler in LA, but it appears that he’s going to play a featured role with Justin Herbert and company, which will put Ekler into a good position to lead the team in carries and approach 100 targets in 2021.
That kind of production in the passing game can’t be understated. 17 games out of Ekeler on this improving offense certainly warrants top-5 running back potential, and that makes Ekeler a tremendous value at his current ADP, which often slips into Round 2.
James White (RB) New England Patriots
We like White as a forgotten late-round steal earlier but the promotion of Mac Jones to New England’s starting gig means even better things for New England’s passing game. Jones has elite accuracy and won’t call his own number so much in the red zone.
Look for White to reclaim his status as the Patriots’ go-to option on passing downs, where he averaged 15.3 PPR points per game from 208-2019 with a more traditional pocket passer in the lineup.
White often slips out of the top-50 running backs, yet still finished as the RB42 in a “down” 2020 season with Cam Newton. That makes White an excellent bargain to target late in drafts, and the ideal depth candidate for fantasy drafters who load up on elite RBs early and look for high-volume pass-catching PPR targets to fill out their bench.
Damien Williams (RB) Chicago Bears
Williams showcases solid Swiss Army knife tools in Kansas City and now moves on to Chicago to act as the complimentary back to David Montgomery. Montgomery thrived last year but that was due to the absence of Tarik Cohen, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in Week 3.
Speaking of Cohen, he still has no timetable for a return, which bodes well for Williams, who is an established receiver himself. Now Williams is unlikely to get the 90 targets that Cohen averages annually in Matt Nagy’s offense, but he just might approach 150 touches, and our projections think he can top 700 scrimmage yards and score enough touchdowns to make Williams a decent bench stash.
Deebo Samuel (WR) San Francisco 49ers
Samuel was decimated by injuries last season, just like the rest of San Francisco’s offense, which stalled under Nick Mullens and C.J. Beathard. With Jimmy Garoppolo back healthy and intriguing first-round rookie Trey Lance now quarterbacking Kyle Shanahan’s offense, the 49ers look like a potential top-10 offense.
Brandon Aiyuk has rightfully grabbed most of the attention as San Francisco’s top wide receiver, but Samuel is now fully healthy and poised to use his elite run-after-catch skills in creative ways. One of the reasons we’re so high on Samuel is often overlooked by the fantasy community. Samuel is an elite athlete who could potentially chip in another 250 yards and 4-5 scores rushing.
The 49ers also have the league’s No. 1 easiest schedule for wide receivers, which means both Aiyuk and Samuel have potential blow-up matchups up and down the 2021 schedule. We love Deebo this season and have gladly scooped him up well before his WR38 ADP.
D.J. Chark (WR) Jacksonville Jaguars
If you think San Francisco’s pass-catchers had it rough last season, the Jaguars went 1-15 under such stalwarts as Gardner Minshew, Mike Glennon, and Jake Luton. No wonder Chark struggled declined to 706 yards and five touchdowns after his breakout sophomore campaing.
Chark also battled injuries but neither of those major concerns are a factor any longer. The arrival of generational talent Trevor Lawrence should cure the club’s quarterbacking woes and the addition of Urban Meyer and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell should get the Jags a solid start in posting above-average passing numbers right away.
These days, it’s not a surprise when a rookie signal-caller throws for north of 4,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in his first season. Lawrence isn’t any rookie thrower and will also have a 17th game to accrue stats. Chark and Laviska Shenault are both candidates to top 1,000 receiving yards in 2021, and Chark’s lower ADP makes him one of our favorite mid-round targets.
Rondale Moore (WR) Arizona Cardinals
Moore was one of my favorite prospects to watch this offseason. He’s undersized but has top-notch speed, run-after-catch skills, and elite vertical ability. Once Kliff Kingsbury announced that Moore would replace Larry Fitzgerald as Arizona’s slot receiver, I expressed my intentions on Twitter.
My 2021 draft philosophy: pic.twitter.com/V2dZ6Z3emK
— Jody Smith (@JodySmithNFL) August 26, 2021
At Purdue’s Pro Day, Moore fan a 4.37 (96th-percentile), posted a 10.78 agility score (94th-percentile), and also had a 96th-percentile burst score of 135.3. In 2018 at just 18-years-old, Moore broke out snagging an enormous 118 catches for 1,258 yards and dozen scores as a freshman.
You can read more about my thoughts on Moore in my Preseason Pro, but overall, I think he posts WR3 PPR numbers right out of the gate and I’m willing to target him a full two rounds earlier than his current ADP.
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