Tight Ends
Zach Ertz, SF (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,100)
The TEs for the Eagles had a productive game (12/130/1 on 17 targets) against the top Patriots’ defense with Ertz finishing with nine catches for 94 yards. He also played well in Week 9 (9/103/1) while seeing his targets grow to 11 in both of his recent games. Philly turned to the TE position three times (9/102, 6/107/1, and 13/142/1) over four games before last week’s success. Ertz wondered his way through the first eight games of the season (37/424/1 on 64 targets). The Eagles’ TEs now have 79 catches for 878 yards and six TDs on 123 targets. Seattle played well vs. TEs in their last two games (2/23 and 3/24), but they still rank 25th in TE defense (13.64 FPPG – 49/615/4 on 76 targets) with four teams posting good results at TE (CIN – 9/93, PIT – 7/38/2, LAR – 10/183, and ATL – 9/94/1). The Eagles have injuries at WR, which forces them to move the ball with their TEs. Dallas Goedert did steal some of Ertz’s chances over the past five games (19/214/3 on 28 targets). Trending toward a backend WR1, but his scoring ability isn’t as high as expected, with Carson Wentz playing below his expected value coming into 2019.
Darren Waller, OAK (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,200)
Waller rebounded a bit in Week 11 (5/78 on seven targets), but he fell short of his predicted value due to no TD and a long catch called back due to a penalty. Over his last six games, he posted one impact game (7/126/2) while scoring fewer than 10.0 Fantasy points in four contests (4/39, 2/11/1, 2/52, and 3/40). His other game of value came in Week 3 (13/134). The Jets have played well defending TEs (8.98 FPPG – 38/408/2 on 54 targets) with seven teams scoring less than 10.0 Fantasy points. Even with a high ranking in TE defense (4th), New York faced nine opponents with weakness at TE (BUF, CLE, NE, DAL, NE, JAC, MIA, NYG, and WAS). The Eagles’ TEs finished with six catches for 68 yards and a TD on ten targets. His matchup looks dull, but Waller has the talent to be active in the passing game while the Jets allow three TDs a game on the year. Buy the potential volume and ignore his matchup stats.
Jared Cook, NO (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,000)
In a way, Cook has played up to his expected value in Fantasy points over his previous four games (51.5 Fantasy points – 12.88 FPPG). He has a TD in three of his previous four games while only have one game on the year with impact targets (6/74). His path after eight games puts him on a path for 46 catches for 550 yards and six TDs on only 78 targets. The Panthers sit 3rd in TE defense (8.48 FPPG – 33/408/2 on 46 targets) with only Tampa delivering a playable game at TE (4/82/1). More of a tweener this week with the Saints expected to feature the run game vs. Carolina’s porous run defense. The lack of a WR2 in the Saints’ offense does give Cook more upside than meets the eye if game flow breaks toward the passing game.
Jacob Hollister, SEA (DK – $4,300/FD – $5,800)
Twice this year in the season-long games, the Seahawks’ offense produced a playable option off the waiver wire. Will Dissly caught 22 passes for 250 yards and four TDs on 24 targets over a four-game stretch, and now Hollister has back-to-back games (4/237/2 and 8/62/1) with success. On the year, Seattle’s TEs have 52 catches for 516 yards and seven TDs on 66 targets. The Eagles are 8th in TE defense (10.09 FPPG – 41/419/3 on 55 targets), with one team having a high production (9/91/1). Russell Wilson does look for his TE near the goal line with some value on third downs. Without a TD, Hollister would be a tough start for me in the daily contests in Week 11.
Ryan Griffin, NYJ (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,600)
Other than a poor showing in Week 10 (one catch for minus-two yards), Griffin proved to be a Fantasy asset in three (4/66/2, 6/50, and 5/109/1) over his previous four games. Even with a rise in value, the Jets only looked his way 18 times over the past four games. Oakland ranks 28th in TE defense (14.45 FPPG – 48/571/7 on 79 targets). The Raiders showed risk vs. TEs in three contests (KC – 7/107/1, IND – 5/70/2, and HOU – 8/69/2). Griffin’s success last week will draw attention in the daily games, but I can’t see a repeat showing. More of a trap.
Greg Olsen, CAR (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,100)
Olsen hasn’t scored a TD since Week 3, but he did move in the right direction over his last two starts (8/98 and 5/57 on 15 combined targets). His season started with two impact games (6/110 and 6/75/2) over the first three weeks while being a non-factor in all formats over his next five games (2/5, 0/0, 4/52, 2/13, and 3/40). The Saints are 10th in WR defense (10.83 FPPG – 48/508/2 on 67 targets). Their biggest struggles defending TEs came in Week 3 (SEA – 7/71/1) and Week 11 (10/73). Only a coin toss while needing a TD to be a viable option this week.
Noah Fant, DEN (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,100)
After a breakthrough game (3/115/1), Fant saw a season-high ten targets in Week 11, leading to four catches for 60 yards with a pair of runs for negative yards (7). His playing time has grown to 86 percent over the previous two games. Over his first seven games, Fant only had 20 catches for 185 yards and one TD on 32 targets. The Bills lead the NFL in TE defense (6.46 FPPG – 29/296/1 on 41 targets) with no team scoring over 16.00 Fantasy points. Tough matchup, but his game and opportunity are rising.
Dallas Goedert, PHI (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,200)
Fantasy owners can almost consider Goedert a WR2 in the Eagles’ offense based on his snaps (80 percent) over the past two games and his production over his previous five games (19/214/3 on 28 targets). He scored a TD in four of his last seven games. On a path for midteen Fantasy points if he scores a TD.
Cameron Brate, TB (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,400)
After misfortunate play by O.J. Howard resulting in a turnover, Brate saw a huge bump in playing time (75 percent) along with a massive opportunity (10/73 on 14 targets) against the Saints. Over the previous two games, he didn’t have a target or catch while battling a rin injury. Brate could be a sneaky play or a bust option. His previous NFL resume does offer some scoring ability.
Jonnu Smith, TEN (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,300)
Smith failed to match his output in Week 8 (6/78/10 over the last two weeks (3/18 and 4/30) while receiving over 75 percent of the TE snaps over the previous month. Delanie Walker may suit up this week, which will cut into Smith targets and playing time. The Jaguars are 11th in TE defense (11.10 FPPG – 37/420/5 on 55 targets). Their biggest failure vs. TEs came in Week 8 (4/66/2). Avoid for me.
Vance McDonald, PIT (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,300)
Over nine games, McDonald hasn’t gained over 40 yards in any game while averaging 4.7 targets per game. His only game of value came in Week 2 (7/38/2). On the year, he has 28 catches for 220 yards and three TDs. The Bengals are 19th in TE (12.84 FPPG – 45/595/4 on 62 targets). Three teams (9/121, 12/151/2, and 7/86/1) had success against Cinci over the last four contests. Only a bunt single while needing a couple of errors to score from first base.
T.J. Hockenson, DET (DK – $3,400/FD – $4,900)
The Lions haven’t tried to get Hockenson the ball since Week 1 (6/131/1). From Week 2 to Week 8, Hockenson caught only 13 balls for 109 yards and a TD on 22 targets. His value in the passing game did rise in Week 9 (3/56) and Week 10 (3/47) while fading again last week (1/6). Washington is 20th in TE defense (13.00 FPPG – 50/560/4 on 68 targets) with disaster defending the TE over their last game (NYJ – 6/129/2). Low-level option with no clear path to a better opportunity.
O.J. Howard, TB (DK – $3,300/FD – $5,000)
One catchable ball and a couple of unfortunate bounces led to an interception and benching for Howard early against the Saints. He teased Fantasy owners in Week 10 (4/47/1) after a two-game absence with a hamstring issue. Fantasy owners had to watch Cameron Brate catch ten of 14 targets for 73 yards as his replacement in playing time and opportunity in the passing game. Howard continues to crush Fantasy owners, but HC Bruce Arians has only made matters worse with his approach to his young upside TE. The Falcons are 15th in TE defense (12.16 FPPG – 46/496/3 on 69 targets) with one team scoring over 20.0 Fantasy points (IND – 9/118). Only a gamble with a wide range of outcomes with most landing in the under in his production.
