Running Backs
Christian McCaffrey, CAR (DK – $10,500/FD – $10,500)
The beast of beast in 2019 continues to be McCaffrey. He extended his TD streak to seven games while scoring 12 TDs over this stretch. McCaffrey rushed for over 100 yards in six of nine games. His two weakest games came vs. Tampa (53 combined yards with no TDs and two catches and 57 combined yards with two TDs and four catches). On the year, he averages 154 combined yards and almost 26 touches per game. In 2018, he gained 317 combined yards with no TDs and 26 catches against the Falcons in two games. Atlanta ranks 11th in RB defense (23.12 FPPG – 1,144 combined yards with nine TDs and 41 catches). Their only failure defending RBs came in Week 6 (171 combined yards with three TDs and eight catches). McCaffrey projects as the top RB again this week. His best value in Week 11 should come in the passing game.
Ezekiel Elliott, DAL (DK – $9,000/FD – $8,400)
As the NFL season turns to Week 11, Elliott is the sixth-highest scoring RB (17.67 FPPG) with no impact games. He trails Christian McCaffrey by over 120 Fantasy points. Elliott rushed for over 100 yards in five games with six rushing TDs and a step back in value in the passing game (26/192) while averaging 22.7 touches per game. The Lions slipped to 31st in RB defense (31.02 FPPG) with six of the previous seven opponents scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. Detroit allows 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 13 TDs and success in the passing game (48/535/5). A very winnable matchup, but he does need Dak Prescott to stay away from his upside in rushing TDs.
Dalvin Cook, MIN (DK – $8,900/FD – $8,600)
After a disappointing game in Week 9 against the Chiefs on the road (116 combined yards and four catches), Cook gained 183 combined yards with a TD and seven catches or 31.1 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. He has five games with over 100 yards rushing while averaging a TD and 24.3 touches per game. Even with his success this year, Cook doesn’t have one game with enough Fantasy points to fill his salary bucket based on his Week 1 salary ($8,900). The Broncos ranks 13th in RB defense (23.38 FPPG) four straight games of success (9.50, 15.60, 24.10, and 16.50 FPPG) after struggling in the two previous games (38.40 and 32.90 FPPG). The Broncos allow only 4.0 yards per rush with RBs scoring six TDs. Denver allowed only one rushing TD over the previous six games. Cook is a special running back, but this matchup is slightly against the grain, even with a high ranking this week. Game score and a weaker option at QB for the Broncos should help his opportunity.
Leonard Fournette, JAC (DK – $7,900/FD – $7,200)
Based on combined yards (1,116) and touches (23.8 per game), Fournette is a top-five RB in 2019. Unfortunately, his glaring shortfall is his solo TD, which came in Week 5. He rushed over 100 yards in three games plus two other games with over 100 combined yards. Fournette’s floor is helped by his value in the passing game (40/295). The Colts climbed to eighth in RB defense (21.14 FPPG) with their only disaster showing coming in Week 1 (LAC – 219 combined yards with three TDs and seven catches). Indy allows 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring seven TDs. Even with 150 combined yards and six catches, Fournette can’t be in play without a TD and three bonus points if he rushes for over 100 yards.
Alvin Kamara, NO (DK – $$7,400/FD – $7,800)
In his first game back in the starting lineup after missing two games, Kamara only attempted four runs leading to 24 yards with some value in the passing game (8/50). New Orleans had him on the field for 78 percent of the RB snaps, which fell in line with his opportunity over the first five games of the season. Finding the end zone has been a problem for Kamara in four of his five games. His best value came in Week 3 (37.10 Fantasy points) against Seattle when he scored a pair of TDs. He has fewer than 100 yards rushing in each game with plenty of value in the passing game (41/326/1) while averaging 18.7 touches per game. Tampa has the second-best RB defense (15.63 FPPG), with eight teams scoring fewer than 23.00 Fantasy points per game. The Bucs allow only 3.3 yards per rush with RBs scoring five TDs. The Saints will be without their starting left guard this week, which is a strike for the run game. I’m avoiding him this week.
Le’Veon Bell, PIT (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,400)
Entering last week’s game, Bell had the questionable tag with multiple issues. The Jets gave him 74 percent of their RB snaps, which was a season-low in playing time. He finished with 22 touches, leading to 68 combined yards with a TD and four catches. Bell sits 12th in RB scoring (15.06 FPPG) with his best success coming in three games (23.20, 21.90, and 20.10 Fantasy points). He averages 20.8 touches per game with only three TDs. The Redskins ranks 26th in RB defense (27.71 FPPG) with four of their previous six opponents scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (32.30, 47.20, 32.20, and 34.10). Washington can be beaten in the passing game at RB (55/442/2) with some of their failures vs. the run coming from volume of chances (32.2 rushes per game). I want to believe, but the Jets still need to play better on early downs. Bell is listed as questionable again in Week 11.
Josh Jacobs, OAK (DK – $6,900/FD – $8,000)
Jacobs ranks 7th in rushing yards (811) while having a game in hand over three players ranked in front of him. The Raiders haven’t given him over 60 percent of the RB snaps over the previous four games. Even with a rotational role, Jacobs averages 20.2 touches per game. He gained over 100 combined yards in four of his last four games plus three games with two TDs, which all came at home. Jacobs averages 11.7 Fantasy points per game on the road with much more success at home (22.52 FPPG). The Bengals worked their way to 30th in RB defense (29.14 FPPG) after holding RBs to short Fantasy points in their previous four games (21.90, 16.80, 19.30, and 12.20 Fantasy points). Cinci struggled in two games vs. RBs (55.80 and 50.45 Fantasy points). The Bengals allow 5.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 15 TDs. A great matchup as long as his lingering shoulder issue doesn’t become a factor in this matchup. I fully expect two-plus TDs with a run at 200-plus yards rushing.
Mark Ingram, BAL (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,500)
Last week the Ravens jumped out to a big lead via the pass and a defensive score, but they failed to control the clock with the run game. The Bengals were content moving the chains rather than putting up a fight on the scoreboard, which was part of the reason for a disappointing game for Ingram (9/34/1). He rushed for fewer than 55 yards in four of his previous five games. Ingram has been much better on the road (18.56 FPPG) compared to at home (12.65 FPPG). Houston ranks 14th in RB defense (23.71 FPPG), with three teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Texans allow only 4.1 yards per rush with RBs scoring four TDs. Overpriced for his opportunity and his matchup.
Marlon Mack, IND (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,300)
Mack had his fifth straight games with 20 or more touches, but he failed to rush for over 100 yards in his last four starts. His floor is below the top RBs due to only three TDs and minimal value in the passing game (12/76). Mack played at his highest level in 2019 on the road in two games (25/174/1 and 148 combined yards with three catches). The Jaguars are league average vs. the RB position (23.83 FPPG), with most of the damage coming in Week 5 (63.10 FPPG) vs. the Panthers and Christian McCaffrey. The Jaguars allow 4.9 yards per rush with RBs scoring five rushing TDs. Tough to trust without a more success in TDs, but his matchup does give him a chance a week after being more attractive.
Latavius Murray, NO (DK – $6,200/FD – $5,600)
The excitement of possible follow-through by Murray after two great games (307 combined yards with four TDs and 14 catches with 62 touches) was short-lived once Alvin Kamara returned to the starting lineup. Last week he gained only 19 yards with two catches on seven touches while being on the field for 25 percent of the RB plays run by the Saints.
Tevin Coleman, SF (DK – $6,100/FD – $6,700)
Fantasy owners will gravitate toward Coleman in Week 11 based on his matchup. After an impact game in Week 8 (118 combined yards with four TDs and two catches), he struggled in his next two starts (36 combined yards with two catches and 72 combined yards and four catches). From Week 5 to Week 7, Coleman averaged 19.3 touches per game. In his previous three games, he only received 13.3 touches per game. Coleman was a huge trap in Week 9 (5.60 Fantasy points) against the Cardinals. Arizona is 20th in RB defense (25.03 FPPG) with their two poor games (43.40 and 41.30 FPPG) coming over the previous three contests. The Cardinals allow 4.5 yards per rush with RBs scoring nine TDs. Matt Breida won’t play this week, but the 49ers will rotate in a second running back. Upside matchup with a chance at an explosive game if San Fran returns to their running ways.
Devin Singletary, BUF (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,500)
Singletary was the flavor the week in the Fantasy market after his impressive game in Week 9 (140 combined yards with one TD and three catches on 23 touches). The Bills had him on the field for two-thirds of their RB plays, which was the same opportunity in his two previous games. Singletary gained only 50 yards with three catches on 11 touches. Miami pushed their way to 27th in RB defense (27.79 FPPG) after holding RBs to under 21.0 Fantasy points over their last five games. The Dolphins did struggle vs. RBs over the first four games of the season (31.00, 34.30, 37.70, and 43.70 Fantasy points). Miami allows 4.6 yards per rush with RBs scoring 11 TDs. His touches aren’t a lock, but his matchup does give him a chance at another winning game.
Joe Mixon, CIN (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,600)
After a battle of emptiness over the first seven games (353 combined yards with two TDs and 15 catches), Mixon became Fantasy relevant in his previous two starts (17.10 and 14.07 Fantasy points) highlighted by a season-high In touches (32), and rushing yards (114) in Week 10. He gains only 3.3 yards per rush with no rushing TDs on the year. The Raiders rank 21st in RB defense (25.39 FPPG) with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The lack of QB play in Cinci will limit their scoring ability. Last week his bump in touches were helped by an injury to Giovani Bernard, which looks to be minor.
Kenyan Drake, ARI (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,300)
The 49ers will be ready for Drake in Week 11 after he gained 162 combined yards with a TD and four catches on 19 touches after a midweek trade with the Dolphins. Last week David Johnson returned to the starting lineup, but he gained only ten yards with a catch on six touches while receiving 43 percent of the RB snaps. The Cardinals had Drake on the field for 64 percent of their RB plays. Tough call as far as playing time with Johnson in the mix. I can’t see another impact game by Drake vs. San Fran over a three-week stretch.
James White, NE (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,100)
White sits 21st in RB scoring (13.36 FPPG) in PPR leagues while scoring between 11.90 and 16.40 Fantasy points in all eight of his games. Over eight games, he gained 508 combined yards with two TDs and 44 catches. RBs have 50 catches for 381 yards and one TD on 69 targets against the Eagles. Game flow player while needing a chaser game to help his Fantasy value at his higher salary level.
Phillip Lindsay, DEN (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,600)
After showing a spark over four games (412 combined yards with four TDs and 11 catches), Lindsay has been a donation in the daily games over his previous three games (187 combined yards with a TD and six catches on 13.3 touches per game). He’s been out-snapped by Royce Freeman in each of the previous six games. The Vikings are a top-five defense vs. RBs (18.09 FPPG), with seven teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. On the wrong side of a split role, but offering some explosiveness and scoring ability.
Ronald Jones, TB (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,400)
Jones shined last week (106 combined yards with one TD and eight catches on 19 touches), but Tampa still only gave him 47 percent of the RB snaps while rotating in two other RBs. Over the past two games, he scored 19.80 combined Fantasy points on 39 touches. In Week 5, he gained 56 combined yards with two catches vs. the Saints on 11 touches. New Orleans moved to fourth in RB defense (17.76 FPPG) with no team scoring over 24.00 Fantasy points. Trending forward, but his lack of full-time snaps does invite failure in a tougher matchup. His floor could rise if Jones repeats his role in the passing game.
David Johnson, ARI (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,200)
Twice over his previous three games, Johnson gave Fantasy owners a glaring hole in their starting lineup. Over this span, he gained only 12 combined yards with one catch on seven touches. Last week the Cardinals had him on the field for 43 percent of their RB snaps. Over the first six games, Johnson had 80 percent of the RB playing time. The 49ers have the third-best defend vs. RBs (16.99 FPPG). Way too many questions to start in the daily contests and his matchup is unfavorable.
Sony Michel, NE (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300)
Over the first nine weeks, Michel failed to gain over 100 yards rushing while averaging 16.8 touches per game. He gains only 3.3 yards per rush with six TDs and low value in the passing game (7/63). Before his last game, the Patriots gave him 20.2 touches per game. The Eagles allow 3.8 yards per rush with eight rushing TDs. More boring than soaring in this matchup.
Brian Hill, ATL (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,900)
The Falcons will turn to Hill at the running back position after losing Devonta Freeman for a couple of games. In a relief role in Week 10, he gained 71 combined yards with a TD and a catch on 21 touches. This season Atlanta’s RB gained 1,012 combined yards with six TDs and 52 catches. The Panthers fell to 29th in RB defense (28.91 FPPG) after failing vs. RBs in the previous three games (56.40, 34.20, and 33.60 Fantasy points). Carolina allows 5.2 yards per rush with RBs scoring 19 TDs. Hill will be attractive based on his matchup, but the Falcons may mix in a second RB.
Royce Freeman, DEN (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,800)
Freeman regressed in his last game (14 combined yards with one catch on six touches) after scoring a TD in the previous two contests. Over nine games, he gained 555 combined yards with two TDs and 27 catches while averaging 13.3 touches per game. A decent floor in the season-long games, but Freeman lacks the desired explosiveness to be a factor in the daily games.
Derrius Guice, WAS (DK – $4,700/FD – $4,700)
The Redskins will have Guice back on the field this week, but he’ll still battle Adrian Peterson for touches. Peterson ran the ball well over the past four games (75/383 with five catches for 67 yards). I expect Guice to work as the pass-catching back with rotational value on early downs. The Jets allow only 3.0 yards per rush, but they sit 15th in RB defense (23.72 FPPG). I need to see Guice in action before taking him for a ride in the daily space.
Jordan Howard, PHI (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,100)
After ten weeks of the NFL season, Howard is the 18th ranked RB in PPR leagues. Over his previous two games, the Eagles gave him 44 touches leading to 194 combined yards with two TDs and two catches. His best value came in Week 4 (115 combined yards with two TDs and three catches). He gained 513 yards with seven TDs and seven catches on 112 touches over the past seven games. New England has the top RB defense (14.93 FPPG) with some regression in the previous two games (20.20 and 24.80 FPPG). Howard has a slight shoulder issue heading into this week’s game, but he should play on Sunday. Wrong kind of matchup in the daily games.
J.D. McKissic, DET (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,800)
With Ty Johnson knocked out of last week’s game with a concussion, McKissic earned starting snaps for the Lions. He finished with 55 combined yards and six catches on 16 touches while receiving 70 percent of the RB snaps. The Cowboys slid to 23rd in RB defense (25.83 FPPG) with struggles in three games (31.30, 58.30, and 37.70 FPPG). His pass-catching helps his floor, but Detroit will use another RB at the goal line. I’d be more interested if Matthew Stafford plays this week.
Carlos Hyde, HOU (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,300)
The Texans don’t give Hyde many chances in the passing game (6/22) while seeing plenty of chances on early downs (16.6 per game). Over the past five games, Hyde gained 468 yards with two TDs on 98 touches. The Ravens climbed to 9th in RB defense (21.30 FPPG) after holding RBs to fewer than 18.0 Fantasy points over the past five games. Grinder back with a tough matchup, points to an easy avoid.
