Quarterbacks
Lamar Jackson, BAL (DK – $7,700/FD – $8,800)
After nine games, Jackson is the highest scoring QB in the land while scoring over 30.00 Fantasy points in five contests (36.80, 33.60, 33.00, 30.25, and 35.65). His edge comes from his value in the run game (106/702/6). Jackson scored a rushing TD in four straight games (five total). His passing attempts have been short in his previous three games (20, 23, and 17). Houston plays well vs. the run (183/757/3), but they have risk defending QBs (24th – 24.30 FPPG) with three teams delivering impact games (NO – 370/2, ATL – 330/4, and 326/4). The Texans allowed 14 TDs to QBs over a four-game stretch. Jackson has been a hot ride, and this matchup looks favorable. His only strike is his rising salary.
Drew Brees, NO (DK – $6.900/FD – $8,300)
The Saints fell on their face in Week 10, which starts with a disappointing game by Brees (287/0). In his three full games, he averaged 343 passing with five combined TDs. On the year, New Orleans only has 12 passing TDs with weakness at WR behind Michael Thomas. The Bucs allow the second-most Fantasy points to QBs (27.49 FPPG) with failure in four games (39.60, 33.70, 43.00, and 31.00 Fantasy points). Tampa allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 22 TDs in nine games. New Orleans will struggle to run the ball (the Bucs allow 3.3 yards per rush), giving Brees an excellent chance at 300-plus yards. Last year he passed for 640 yards with five TDs in two games against Tampa. I sense a trap, but the Bucs didn’t have an answer for Michael Thomas in Week 5 (11/82/2) or two games in 2019 (16/180/1 and 11/98).
Deshaun Watson, HOU (DK – $6,800/FD – $8,200)
Watson is the second-highest scoring QB (27.39 FPPG) with five impact games (34.40, 30.35, 46.00, 34.20, and 30.55 Fantasy points). Over nine games, he has high value in the run game (52/279/5). His completion rate (70.2) is elite while averaging 8.1 yards per pass attempt despite DeAndre Hopkins gaining only 9.8 yards per pass attempt. The Ravens climbed to ninth in QB defense (18.27 FPPG) after holding their previous five QBs to fewer than 18.00 Fantasy points or fewer. Their only poor showing defending QBs came in Week 3 vs. the Chiefs (374/3). More an against the grain play.
Dak Prescott, DAL (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,100)
Surprisingly, Prescott ranks fourth at the quarterback position (26.37 FPPG) after nine games. His season started with two impact games (37.45 and 31.35 Fantasy points) followed by two other special games (30.85 and 30.85 Fantasy points) over his previous five contests. He’s on pace for 5,248 combined yards with 37 TDs. The Lions fell to 26th QB defense (24.24 FPPG) with failure in two games (32.40 and 32.90 FPPG). Detroit allowed over 20.0 Fantasy points to eight of nine QBs. The Lions gave up 15 passing TDs in the past five games while also showing risk defending the run (253/1167/9) on the year. Prescott tends to be a better play at home (28.12 FPPG) compared to on the road (19.5 FPPG). I expect Ezekiel Elliott to steal the passing upside in this matchup.
Jimmy Garoppolo, SF (DK – $6,700/FD – $8,000)
With George Kittle injured and Emmanuel Sanders exiting early from last week’s game, Garoppolo had a tough time passing the ball vs. the Seahawks. He finished with 248 passing yards with a TD while completing a season-low 52.2 percent of his passes. His salary ($6,700) is up with the top QB in 2019 despite sitting 21st in QB scoring (17.83 FPPG) with only one game of value (32.05 FPPG). The Cardinals rank last in the NFL defending QBs (28.35 FPPG) with five teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (32.45, 33.60, 34.50, 44.95, and 32.05 FPPG). QBs gain 8.2 yards per pass attempt vs. Arizona with 25 passing TDs over ten games. The 49ers will have success running the ball, which makes Garoppolo overpriced in Week 11 based on the health of his receiving options. If George Kittle plays, I could see a 250/2 type game while still falling short of his salary bucket.
Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $6,000/FD – $7,800)
Allen threw for a season-high 266 yards last week leading to his best game of the year thanks to his success in the run game (6/28/2). He tends to have a floor of about 20.0 Fantasy points in four-point passing TD leagues while still looking for his first impact game of the year. Allen doesn’t have a game with more than two passing TDs. After ten weeks, he ranks 10th in QB scoring (21.49 FPG). Three weeks ago, Allen gained 234 combined yards with two TDs vs. the Dolphins after dominating them in two games in 2018 (he rushed for 220 yards and two TDs with success as well in the passing game – 555 yards and five TDs). Miami worked their way to 24th in QB defense (23.23 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in four of their previous five games. Their only disaster showing came in Week 1 (44.45 FPPG) vs. the Ravens. Sneaky option in Week 11 while owing me a few dollars from his previous matchup.
Jameis Winston, TB (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,600)
Even with an underperforming game (23.90 FPPG) vs. the Cardinals, Winston snuck up to 5th in QB ranking (23.14 FPPG). He finished 398 combined yards with one TD and a pair of Ints. Over his previous four games, Winston averaged 374 combined yards, but he tossed more Ints (9) than TDs (6). His best two games came in Week 3 (380/3) and Week 4 (385/4). The Saints held him to 213 yards and two TDs in his only game in 2018. New Orleans worked their way to 19th in QB defense (17.40 FPPG) after holding QBs to fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points in five of their last six games. The Saints will be without their top CB, plus they did struggling to defend the pass twice over the first three weeks (HOU – 308/4 and SEA – 451/4). Both teams may struggle to run the ball, leading to a slow-moving clock and a ton of balls in the air. Winston has the tools to win in the passing game in this matchup.
Tom Brady, NE (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,800)
Over the previous seven games, Brady averaged 41.7 passes per game, but he delivered only nine TDs and one game of value (348/3). His yards per pass attempt (7.1) is trending backward. Even with a boring path, Brady is the ninth highest scoring QB (21.72 FPPG) after ten weeks. The Eagles played better against QBs in their last two games (19.95 and 7.75 FPPG). Three teams scored over 30 Fantasy points per game vs. Philly (WAS – 380/3, GB – 468/2, and MIN – 333/4). The Eagles can slow down the run game, which may lead to the Patriots needing to score via the pass. Brady has lost the sexy Fantasy feel at age 45.
Kirk Cousins, MIN (DK – $6,300/FD – $7,700)
After a midseason push (306/2, 333/4, and 338/4), Cousins has trailed off in his previous three games (285/0, 220/3, and 220/2) while losing his top WR. He moved to 13th in the QB rankings (20.21 FPPG) while averaging only 28.5 passes per game. His TD-to-Int ratio sits at 18-to-3 with strength in his completion rate (69.1). The Broncos are third in QB defense (19.85 FPPG) with no team scoring over scoring over 20.0 Fantasy points per game. Denver allows only 6.4 yards per pass attempt with seven passing TDs in nine games. Below par matchup while lacking his top receiving option.
Matt Ryan, ATL (DK – $6,200/FD – $7,600)
The Falcons pulled off a big upset last week, but Ryan didn’t play well (182/2). He gained only 5.2 yards per attempt with weakness in his completion rate (57.1 and 59.3) in his previous two games. Over his first six games, he passed for over 300 yards with three TDs or more in four games. Last year Ryan threw for 511 yards and five TDs in two games against the Panthers. Carolina ranks 12th in QB defense (18.87 FPPG), with five teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. No team has over two passing TDs vs. the Panthers, while QBs gain only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. Julio Jones has a great history vs. Carolina plus their top CB James Bradberry may miss this week’s game. Slightly against the grain.
Kyler Murray, ARI (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,600)
Murray has two impact games (32.20 and 31.00 FPPG) over his previous five games, helping him to sixth in QB scoring (22.38 FPPG). Before last week, he scored only 40.1 Fantasy points in his past three games against two bad matchups (@NO and SF). Murray averages 290 combined yards and 1.4 TDs per game. The 49ers held him to 241 passing yards and two TDs in Week 9 with 88 yards and a TD coming on one play. San Fran have the second-best QB defense (12.33 FPPG) with seven teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points. In a way, I expect him to play better than his first matchup vs. the 49ers, but I can’t see an impact game.
Derek Carr, OAK (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,400)
The Raiders continue to run the ball well, which limits the passing attempts (31.2) by Carr. His completion rate (79.8) and yards per pass attempt (7.8) remain at career-high levels. He has one game with three TDs and no games with over 300 yards passing. The Bengals fell to 29th in QB defense (26.00 FPPG) with two teams scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points (33.00 and 36.55). Cinci also has a ton of downside against the run. This game sure looks like a Josh Jacobs’ game, but I also expect Darren Waller to have a great game. Only a steady option unless Cinci figures out how to put up a fight on the scoreboard.
Jacoby Brissett, IND (DK – $5,900/FD – $7,500)
After leaving Week 9 with a knee injury, Brissett ended up missing last week’s game. In four of his seven full games, he passed for fewer than 210 yards. Brissett averages 15.7 FPPG in DraftKings scoring on the road compared to 22.45 at home. The Jaguars are league average defending QBs (20.58 FPPG) with five of their last eight opponents scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points per game. Jacksonville did struggle defending the pass in Week 1 (KC – 378/3). Tough bet coming off an injury if he does play.
Sam Darnold, NYJ (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,300)
The bumpy ride of Darnold had another off the road trip in Week 10 (230/1). Over his previous four games, he averaged fewer than 200 passing yards per game with five TDs and eight Ints. Darnold gains only 6.4 yards per pass attempt. The Redskins are 15th vs. the QB position (20.31 FPPG) with more wins (16.55, 13.35, 8.55, 14.45, and 19.20 Fantasy points) than losses (28.15, 31.35, and 28.40 FPPG) on the year. Washington allows 7.8 yards per pass attempt with QBs tossing 15 TDs in nine games. Real tough to trust based on his path in 2019.
Nick Foles, JAC (DK – $5,600/FD – $6,000)
Foles should give the Jaguars stability at QB while adding a dimension to the deep passing game. His Super Bowl win for Philly, along with his relief success again last year created his new starting opportunity. In his limited snaps in Week 1, Foles passed for 75 yards and a TD on eight pass attempts. After nine games, the Jaguars averaged 262 passing yards and 1.6 passing TDs per game. Indy sist 11th in QB defense (18.54 FPPG) with no team scoring over 30.0 Fantasy points. The Colts allowed more than one passing TD in a game since Week 4. Their biggest failures came in Week 1 (333/3) and Week 3 (304/3). I need to see a game before getting excited about Foles.
Carson Wentz, PHI (DK – $5,400/FD – $7,000)
The Eagles played four of their previous six games on the road, which led to more downside than success by Wentz. Over this span, he passed for short yards in five games (160/3, 189/1, 191/1, 172/1, and 239/1). Wentz has over 300 yards passing in two games with his best success coming in Week 1 (313/3). The Eagles gain only 6.8 yards per pass attempt. New England has the top pass defense in the NFL (11.37 FPPG). They allowed fewer than 19.0 Fantasy points to QBs with their only failure coming in Week 9 (30.25 Fantasy points). I don’t like the direction of Wentz, his matchup, or his WRs. Easy fade.
Kyle Allen, CAR (DK – $5,300/FD – $7,200)
Last week Allen passed for a career-high 307 yards, but he finished with only one TD. Over his previous six games, he only has six TDs with five Ints while averaging only 229 yards per game. His best game came in Week 3 (261/4). Atlanta is 28th in QB defense (25.42 FPPG) with two disaster games (HOU – 473/5 and ARI – 372/3). The Falcons allow 8.2 yards per pass attempt with 19 passing TDs allowed in nine games. Favorable matchup if Christian McCaffrey doesn’t beat him to the punch.
Ryan Fitzpatrick, MIA (DK – $5,100/FD – $7,100)
Fitzpatrick will make his fifth straight start for the Dolphins. Over his previous four games, he passed for 929 yards with six TDs and four Ints with his best value coming in Week 9 (288/3). Fitzpatrick passed for 282 yards and a TD in Week 7 against the Bills. Buffalo has the fourth-best QB defense (15.12 FPPG) in the league with Miami having the most success (24.40 FPPG). Not much to get excited about here.
Ryan Finley, CIN (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,300)
In his first NFL start, Finley passed for 167 yards with one TD and one Int. He gained only 5.6 yards per pass attempt with a low completion rate (53.3). Two of his mistakes led to a pair of defensive TDs against the Ravens. Oakland struggled in three of their previous four games (48.05, 30.55, and 30.90 FPPG) defending QBs, pushing them to 30th in QB defense (26.41 FPPG). Cinci flashed a couple of the times in the passing game, but they gained only 6.6 yards per pass attempt. His lack of experience sets up more failure than upside.
Dwayne Haskins, WAS (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,500)
The Redskins stated this week that Haskins would start for the remainder of the season. Over his first three games in the NFL, he passed for 284 yards with no TDs and four Ints. His first NFL start came against a tough Bills’ pass defense, which led to 144 yards and no TDs. Unlike most, I like the upside of Haskins, and he does have the tools to have success in the NFL. The Jets started to show fade in their QB defense (22.66 FPPG – 22nd) over the previous three games (27.75, 26.60, and 34.40 FPPG). Haskins has one big play WR who played with him in college. Priced low enough to be a factor if he shows progression in his game.
Brandon Allen, DEN (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,800)
Allen won his first NFL start in Week 9 when he passed for 193 yards with two TDs. Even with his success, he attempted only 20 passes. The Broncos’ QBs only have eight passes TDs on the year in nine games while gaining only 7.1 yards per pass attempt. The Vikings slipped to 14th in QB defense (20.06 FPPG) after struggling vs. QBs in two of their previous four games (33.20 and 30.85 FPPG). QBs have 18 passing TDs against Minnesota. A short resume and a below-par matchup on the road don’t add up to a winning play on the road.
Jeff Driskel, DET (DK – $4,600/FD – $6,700)
The news on Matt Stafford’s back injury doesn’t sound good, pointing to another missed game this week. Driskel gained 306 combined yards with one TD in his relief start last week. In his 11 games played in his career, he averaged only 5.7 yards per pass attempt with nine TDs and three Ints. The Cowboys pushed up to 5th in QB defense (16.46 FPPG), with seven teams scoring fewer than 20.0 Fantasy points per game. Not a great matchup with a lot to prove before being an exciting option at QB in the daily games. On the positive side, the Lions do have talent at the receiving positions, and the Cowboys will score.
