With the first road course race of the season in the books, the Cup Series heads to Dover International Speedway this weekend for a doubleheader at “The Monster Mile.” Drydene will sponsor both races at Dover International Speedway, and after the double dip at the one-mile, concrete oval, there will be just one race left in the regular season.
NASCAR has been using the doubleheader format throughout the year, most recently at Michigan, and while it can create some chalk plays for the second race in DFS contests, fantasy owners in season-long leagues can use the format to their advantage.
For one, being able to watch a race and then immediately return to the same track under relatively similar conditions makes it a lot easier to identify potential sleepers. This late in the year, you are likely running low on starts from a number of the big names, and any opportunity to grab a strong finish from an alternate source is vital. This is especially true in the Driver Group Game since it runs through the entire year, including the playoffs.
The invert format used to set to the field for the second race also creates some opportunities to grab some place differential points in the Slingshot Fantasy Auto game. Up until last weekend, NASCAR was mainly using owner points to set the field, which limited the number of differential points available. Between the new format and this weekend’s doubleheader, you have a chance to post some bigger scores and make up ground down the stretch, especially if you are willing to get aggressive with your lineups.
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1. Martin Truex Jr.
Truex leads all drivers with a 5.6 average finish over the last 10 Dover races, leading 40-plus laps six times and 100-plus laps four times. He has six Top 5s in his last seven starts at the track alone, including a win a second-place finish last year. He should be able to carry a lineup in any fantasy format this weekend.
2. Kevin Harvick
He finished fourth in both Dover races last year, and he has delivered several dominant performances at the track in recent years. In fact, he leads all drivers with 1,051 laps led in the last 10 races here, leading 90-plus laps five times and more than 200 laps three times. Harvick should be a top option in both DFS and season-long contests.
3. Chase Elliott
Fresh off a win at the Daytona Roval, Elliott should stay hot at one of his best tracks. He has six Top 5s in eight starts here, logging four finishes of third or better. Elliott won the fall race here in 2018, and he led 145 laps in the spring race last year. He should start from the pole Saturday, making him an elite option in both DFS and season-long contests.
4. Denny Hamlin
Hamlin used to struggle at Dover, but he has six Top 10s in the last eight races here, and he led 218 laps and finished fifth here last fall. Throw in the fact that he has been contending for wins on a weekly basis in 2020 and will be starting on the front row, and I expect him to be a fantasy stud in all formats.
5. Kyle Busch
It been a forgettable year by the defending champ’s standards, but he had plenty of success at Dover over the years. He cracked the Top 10 in both races here last season, and he has six Top 10s in his last nine starts at the track, including a win and two runner-up efforts. More importantly from a fantasy standpoint, Busch is starting outside the Top 20 Saturday giving him tons of place differential upside for DFS contests and for Slingshot Fantasy Auto.
6. Brad Keselowski
While he hasn’t shown as much upside at Dover as some of the other big names, Keselowski has provided a high floor. He has scored the fourth-most points over the last 10 races here, and he has eight Top 15s in that span, including five straight. He’s consistency makes him a solid addition in Fantasy Live.
7. Joey Logano
Dover won’t qualify as his best track, but Logano has finished inside the Top 15 in four of his last five starts here, finishing seventh or better in two of the last three races. I don’t expect to go out and lead a bunch of laps on Saturday, which limits hi appeal in DFS contests, but I do think he challenges for a Top 10.
8. Ryan Blaney
Blaney has been good, not great, at Dover in his career, notching three Top 15s in his last four starts. He has also had Top 5 speed on a routine basis this year, and since he will have to start outside the Top 20 Saturday, Blaney should be able to pile up a big point total in any contest that includes place differential in the scoring.
9. Kurt Busch
He has been in a nice rhythm at Dover, reeling off four straight Top 15s and cracking the Top 10 three times in that stretch. You also have to like Busch’s consistency in 2020. Heading into this weekend’s doubleheader, his 11.4 average finish ranks fourth in the series. He should be a quality addition to fantasy lineups.
10. Jimmie Johnson
Johnson is no longer the unstoppable force he was at Dover early in his career, but he finished 14th and eighth in the two races here last year, and he has six Top 10s in the last 10 races at the track, including a couple of wins. Armed with a Top 10 starting spot after a great run at the Daytona Roval, I am going to be all over Johnson as a Group B option in the DGG Saturday.
11. Alex Bowman
He lived up to his reputation as a solid road racer with a 12th-place effort at the Daytona Roval, and he might just keep the momentum going at Dover. After all, he finished second and third in the two races here last year, picking up a total of 23 stage points. Yes, he has been inconsistent for the last few months, but this could be a great spot to take a chance on him, especially as a Group B option in the Driver Group Game.
12. Clint Bowyer
Bowyer picked up Top 10 finishes in both Dover races a year ago, and he has four Top 10s in the last five races here, including a runner-up effort in the spring of 2018. Set to start in the Top 5 on Saturday, Bowyer could be a great Group B option in the Driver Group Game.
13. Erik Jones
Jones has compiled a solid resume at Dover, posting an 11.7 average finish in six starts and cracking the Top 15 five times. He has finished sixth or better in two of his last three starts here. Jones will be his usual high-risk, high-reward self this weekend.
14. Matt DiBenedetto
DiBenedetto made a big leap at Dover last year, following a Top 20 run in the spring with a seventh-place effort in the fall. With even better equipment in 2020, another Top 10 isn’t out of the question. He could be a Group B sleeper in the DGG.
15. William Byron
He has compiled a decent record at Dover through four starts, cracking the Top 15 three times and posting a 13.5 average finish. Byron has underwhelmed a bit in 2020, but he earned himself a Top 10 starting spot on Saturday with his solid run last weekend, which makes it a little easier to roll the dice on him in DGG.
16. Aric Almirola
He hasn’t been bad at Dover, but Almirola hasn’t exactly shown a ton of upside at the track either. He has finished between 11th and 17th in all four starts here with Stewart-Haas Racing, and I’d look for him to run in and around the Top 15 again in both races this weekend.
17. Christopher Bell
Bell will make his first Cup start at Dover this weekend, but he was great here at the XFINITY level, notching three Top 5s in four starts and picking up a pair of wins. I have him as my top Group C option in the Driver Group Game, at least for Saturday’s race.
18. Cole Custer
Stewart-Haas Racing has had solid speed at Dover in recent years, and Custer showed a solid feel for the track at the XFINITY level, cracking the Top 5 in his last three starts and grabbing a win last fall. I wouldn’t hesitate to use him as a Group C pick in the DGG this weekend.
19. Tyler Reddick
Reddick is still performing well for a rookie, but he has finished outside the Top 15 in each of the last three races. He also wasn’t overly impressive at Dover at the XFINITY level. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him crack the Top 20, but I plan to take a wait-and-see approach with Reddick in the first race this weekend.
20. Austin Dillon
He finished 19th and 18th in the two races at Dover last year, and he has landed in the Top 20 in six of the last seven races here. Assuming he is medically cleared, a Top 15 isn’t out of the question, but Dillon is likely headed for a mid-pack finish.
21. Ryan Newman
Newman hasn’t been able to find a rhythm this year, and I’m not expecting a breakout performance at Dover. He has managed to crack the Top 20 in eight of the last 10 races here, but he has just two Top 15s in that same stretch. Slated to start around 24th, Newman will have some DFS appeal, but his ceiling is going to be limited.
22. Matt Kenseth
He was one of the better performers at Dover in his prime, but Kenseth has been lucky to crack the Top 15 since taking over the No. 42. I’m not expecting more than a Top 20 out of him in either race this weekend, but he could still be a decent DFS play on Saturday since his rough outing at the Daytona Roval will have him starting outside the Top 25.
23. Ricky Stenhouse Jr.
Stenhouse has managed a couple of Top 10s at Dover, but for the most part, he has been a mid-pack performer at the one-mile oval. As usual, he is no more than a shot-in-the-dark DFS option.
24. Chris Buescher
He has an uninspiring 24.8 average finish in eight starts at Dover, and Buescher’s only finish of better than 20th came in his track debut. A Top 20 finish is likely the best-case scenario, and he should start in the Top 15 after a solid showing at the Daytona Roval. It is hard to see Buescher having much fantasy value, at least in the first race this weekend.
25. Bubba Wallace
Wallace has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks, and while he still owns a 19.8 average finish for the year, he has finished outside the Top 20 in four of the five races heading into the Dover doubleheader. A poor starting spot in Saturday’s race could make him worth a flier in DFS contests, but I’m not touching him in season-long contests.
26. John Hunter Nemechek
He had three Top 10s and a 9.8 average finish in four XFINITY starts at Dover, but Nemechek’s fantasy appeal for Saturday’s race really come from his starting spot. A bad run last weekend has him starting outside the Top 30, but he has shown Top 20 upside throughout the year. I like Nemechek as a source of cap relief in both DFS contests and Slingshot Fantasy Auto.
27. Michael McDowell
His numbers at Dover leave a lot to be desired, but McDowell is coming of a great run at the Daytona Roval, and he has shown Top 20 upside this year. Unfortunately, his Top 10 last weekend will translate to a solid starting spot, limiting the place differential points he can earn and killing his fantasy value for DFS contests.
28. Ty Dillon
Dillon finished 22-nd and 23-rd in the two races at Dover last year, and as his 23.7 average finish here suggests, a couple of Top 25 efforts are probably on tap this weekend. Unless he has trouble Saturday and starts at the back on Sunday, I don’t see Dillon having much fantasy value.
29. Ryan Preece
It has been a long 2020 season for Preece, but he has cracked the Top 25 in four straight races heading into Dover, posting a 20.0 average finish. He also snuck into the Top 20 at Dover last fall. Despite the small signs of improvement, Preece will be a shot-in-the-dark DFS play this weekend, at best.
30. Corey LaJoie
LaJoie hasn’t had much success at Dover, but he has been showing a little more upside of late, finishing 22nd or better in four of the last six races. He should start deeper in the field after being dumped late in Sunday’s race, giving him some potential as a DFS punt play.
