Tonight we are looking at a 5 game slate right after yesterdays 6 games. These 5-8 games are my favorite slates.
*Of the 5 games only two will run at faster pace. MIL/ATL & PHO/GS. The PHO/GS game has a close spread and both teams are mediocre on defense(PHO ranks 20th and the Warriors rank 21st) This is the game I have most interest in. MIL/ATL has some appeal with a few players that are under-priced, also the Hawks have been the worst team defensively this year. The other 3 games(PHI/ORL runs at a slower pace and both teams play good defense, same with MIA/IND- waiting on new for Malcom Brogdon, which could open up some value. Last game is CHA/OKC and they both play at a slow pace, but CHA is ranked 25th defensively putting a few Thunder players in play tonight.
Overview of today’s slate. Totals, spread, pace, team defense and DvP.
**Injuries
-Brodgon is questionable tonight: If he sits out then TJ Warren is my favorite play on the Pacers. Sabonis would be my next favorite. Aaron Holiday and TJ McConnell are decent plays but prices have come up a bit on them. McConnell my favorite of the two.
-Giannis is listed as doubtful. When you remove him and Bledsoe from the court Kris Middleton usage goes up by 12.5% to 38%. I like him wait him either way tonight due to the matchup and recent performance. Also Donte DiVienzo gets a nice boots. Players like George Hill usually get over looked but he is a very good play tonight. Ersan Illyasova would be a lock if Giannis sits out.
POINT GUARDS
Ricky Rubio
Rubio has been dropping close to 40 FPs a night. Excellent matchup vs the Warriors in this fast paced game. Playing at a very high level this year with an increase in shot attempts and scoring. I will have either Rubio or Booker in just about every lineup.
Terry Rozier
Rozier has been taking a back seat to Graham. Like the fact that Rozier has been playing minutes in the mid to high 30s. What stands out is that his shot volume has increased as of late. 27, 24 and 17 over the last 3 game.
VALUE
George Hill
Usually gets over looked on the Bucks and has played well especially in the absence of Bledsoe. Elite matchup tonight.
Goran Dragic
Playing 30 minutes off the bench and has high usage. Averaging 32 FPs over the last 3 games.
SHOOTING GUARDS
Devin Booker
Bookers price has dropped to a season low. Last game out vs the Warriors he put up 47 FPs and took 21 shots. Fast paced game, so Booker should do well.
Dennis Schroeder/Shia Gilleous-Alexander
Gallo will be out again tonight putting both of hsee players in play. BUT, Dennis Schroeder is listed and questionable and if he sits out then SGA would be a lock. If not they both have upside in this matchup. Schroeder is averaging 19 shot attempts over his last 4 games and SGA has taken over 16 per game.
VALUE
Glen Robinson III
G-Rob is playing a ton of minutes and getting up double digit shot attempts. Good game to target.
Wesley Matthews
Dirt cheap and plays around 30 minutes a game. Should have no problem getting shots up tonight vs the Hawks. Also should pick up some defensive stats as well.
SMALL FORWARDS
Alec Burks
Burks is coming off a poor performance on Christmas Day mostly due to Damion Lee going off. I am going right back to Burks as he has played well most of the year. I also don’t think Lee will do as well tonight.
Kris Middleton
Middleton has been playing well as of late. Shot attempts are up and minutes have been steady around 30 or so. Excellent matchup vs the worst team defensively.
TJ Warren if Brogdon sits out. Has played very well with Brodgon game off the floor.
VALUE
D’Andre Hunter
Hunter is taking between 12 and 15 shots a game and playing over 30 minutes and some games I’m the high 30s. Pace up spot tonight increases his shot attempts.
Daruis Bazley
No Gallo tonight and nice matchup. Cheap option that should play over 20 minutes.
POWER FORWARDS
John Collins
Collins came back last game after a 25 game absence and put up 50 FPs. Nice pace up spot which gives more opportunities especially on the rebounding side. Under priced for his upside right now.
Al Horford
Playing well as of late. Under 6k Horford has upside in this matchup.
VALUE
Norlens Noel
Noel and Adams get the best matchup at center tonight. Adams is in play but I prefer to pay down for Noel who has good upside tonight.
Myers Leoanard
Leonard has quietly been playing well as of late. 20 plus minutes and averaging around 22 FPs over the last 3 games.
Frank Kaminsky
Risk/Reward play tonight due to minutes but this game is his style. Fast paced and poor defense.
CENTERS
Nikola Vucevic
Vuc is still a bit underpriced right now. He ha played very well vs the Sixers over the last 4 games vs them. 54, 54,35 and 62 FPs.
VALUE
Willie Cauley-Stein
WCS has seen an increase in minutes and has been consistently playing around 30 minutes and averaging around 25 FPs. Good spot tonight vs the Suns.
Aaron Baynes
Love this spot and matchup for Baynes tonight. Minutes have been consistent over the last 3 games and he is starting to play a bit better. Shot attempts are up as well. Favorite game of the night.
