Wide Receivers
Michael Thomas, NO (DK – $9,300/FD – $9,300)
In the daily world, it’s sad when Thomas can rank fourth WR scoring (28.40 Fantasy points) in DraftKings scoring last week while still feeling as though he fell short of his salary expectations. On the year, he averages 9.4 catches for 114.1 yards and 0.50 TDs on 11.3 targets per game or 25.52 FPPG). His high salary requires about 37.0 Fantasy points to payoff. Thomas has eight catches or more in nine of ten games with over 100 yards receiving in four of his previous five games. The Panthers rank 28th in WR defense (39.20 FPPG – 161/1891/6 on 250 targets). They’ve allowed over 240 yards to WRs in four of the last six games (17/277/2, 23/296, 16/244, and 19/283/1). Five WRs gained over 100 yards against Carolina (Chris Godwin – 8/121/1, D.J. Chark – 8/164/2, Chris Godwin – 10/51, Davante Adams – 7/118, and Calvin Ridley – 8/143/1). CB James Bradberry returned to action last week after missing Week 10 with a groin issue. His play has regressed in some of his past five games, but Bradberry still hasn’t allowed a TD in 2019. Thomas is an edge for sure, but he can’t be an option at his high salary level ($9,300) without scoring TDs.
Julio Jones, ATL (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,400)
After a great start over his first three games (19/265/4 on 30 targets), Jones hasn’t scored a TD in seven games while gaining over 100 yards in two other games. On the year, he averages 20.85 FPPG at home. Jones is on pace for 94 catches for 1,411 yards and 6.5 TDs. In 2018, he caught 19 passes for 282 yards and one TD on 27 targets in two games against the Bucs. Tampa is last in the league defending WRs (47.04 FPPG – 151/2024/17 on 234 targets) with disaster risk in three contests (LAR – 29/378/1, SEA – 21/293/3, and ARI – 19/316/3). CB Carlton Davis allows a low completion rate, but he did give up four TDs over his last three starts despite allowing low yards per catch. Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving (Sterling Shepard – 7/100/1, Robert Woods – 13/164, Cooper Kupp – 9/121/1, Michael Thomas – 11/182/2, Tyler Lockett – 13/152/2, D.K. Metcalf – 6/123/1, Christian Kirk – 6/138/3, and Michael Thomas – 8/114/1). An excellent matchup with explosive upside if he ends his scoring slump.
Tyler Lockett, SEA (DK – $7,600/FD – $7,400)
Lockett came out of his last game in Week 10 with a shin injury that most likely would have him kept him out of Week 11 if Seattle played. The Seahawks expect him to practice later this week, putting on track to play on Sunday if he doesn’t have any setbacks. In his matchup vs. the 49ers, Lockett gained only 29 yards with three catches. His two impact games came in Week 3 (11/54/1) and Week 9 (13/152/2), which came after success the previous week (10/79 and 6/100). Overall, he averaged only 7.6 yards per game, leading to about 17.79 FPPG. The Eagles worked their way to 26th in WR defense (38.99 FPPG – 120/1666/13 on 201 targets) while showing improvement vs. WRs over the previous four games (10/169, 9/101/1, 5/80, and 14/115/1). Six WRs have over 100 yards receiving (Terry McLaurin – 5/125/1, Julio Jones – 5/106/2, Calvin Ridley – 8/105/1, Marvin Jones – 6/101/1, Davante Adams – 10/180, Stefon Diggs – 7/167/3, and Amari Cooper – 5/106) against the Eagles. CB Avonte Maddox will give up some big plays with some failure in his completion rate allowed. If Lockett is 100 percent, he has a chance to hit on a big play for a TD. His upside will be limited due to many runs expected by both teams and the Eagles to path in moving the ball.
Mike Evans, TB (DK – $7,300/FD – $8,000)
Heading into Week 12, Evans is the second-highest scoring WR (20.13 FPPG) in PPR leagues. His value took a step back over the previous two games (4/82, and 4/69), which came after impact success in two contests (11/198/2 and 12/180/1). Evans played well in two other weeks (8/1903 and 4.89/1). He averages 9.7 targets per game. Last year in two games against the Falcons, Evans had ten catches for 164 yards and two TDs on 13 targets. Atlanta is 27th in WR defense (39.11 FPPG – 138/1835/12 on 190 targets) with failure in one game (HOU – 24/377/3). Four WRs (Nelson Agholor – 8/107/1, Will Fuller – 14/217/3, Tyler Lockett – 6/100, and Michael Thomas – 13/152) have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Falcons. Atlanta has risk at two CB slots while keeping their best option (Desmond Trufant) on one side of the field on most plays. Tampa will look to attack CB Isaiah Oliver with Evans on many plays. Oliver gives up a ton of yards with risk after the catch. Evans should score with a good chance with over 100 yards receiving.
Chris Godwin, TB (DK – $7,200/FD – $7,800)
Godwin slipped into the steady category over his past four starts (4/43, 7/61, 6/74, and 3/47/1 on 35 combined targets) after dominating in four of his five previous games (8/121/1, 12/172/2, 7/125/2, and 10/151). He averages 9.0 targets per game while setting career highs in catches (63) and receiving yards (887) in six fewer games than 2018. Last year he played well in both games against Tampa (12 catches for 170 yards and three TDs on 18 targets). CB Kendall Sheffield started the last five games for Atlanta with no damage in TDs allowed or many big plays. His pedigree is elite, which points to a rebound in value for Godwin in this possible shootout game.
Odell Beckham, CLE (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,000)
The scoreless streak of Beckham is now at eight games while scoring only one TD in 2019. Over his last five games, he gained 357 yards with 25 catches on 46 targets, which works out 12.14 FPPG). His only game of value came in Week 2 (6/161/1). Beckham has a low catch rate (53.9) compared to his first five years in the NFL (62.7). He scored 35 TDs in his first 43 games with the Giants. Miami ranks 20th in WR defense (35.98 FPPG – 112/1613/16 on 184 targets) with four WRs having success (Marquise Brown – 4/147/2, Terry McLaurin – 4/100/2, Juju Smith-Schuster – 5/103/1, and John Brown – 9/137/2). CB Nik Needham comes into Week 11 with a low catch rate allowed while facing six weak passing teams (WAS, BUF, PIT, NYJ, IND, and BUF). Needham struggled at times in Week 11, defending John Brown. Beckham looks poises to hit on a bomb while schooling an undrafted free agent at CB. His floor for me is 100-plus yards with a TD while having a chance at the top WR score of the week.
Julian Edelman, NE (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,500)
The Patriots will have no choice but to feature Edelman in the passing game with Mohamad Sanu out this week and Phillip Dorsett battling a concussion issue. Last week he struggled to get open (5/53 on ten targets) against the Eagles after success in four (8/110/1, 9/113, 8/78/2, and 10/89) of his previous five games. On the year, Edelman has been a better option at home (21.6 FPPG). Dallas moved to second in WR defense (27.12 FPPG – 102/1273/5 on 172 targets). The Cowboys struggled to defend WRs in one game (NYJ – 16/290/1). Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving vs. Dallas (Robby Anderson – 5/125/1). Jourdan Lewis hasn’t been tested in his limited playing time over the last few weeks while lacking a resume to consider him a top defender. The Cowboys top two CB stay primarily on the outside setting up Edelman with favorable coverage even if he’s doubled on some plays. His opportunity gives him a chance while his matchup should limit his scoring ability.
John Brown, BUF (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,500)
Brown was the top WR in the land in Week 11 when he caught nine of his 14 targets for 137 yards and two TDs in a favorable matchup. His big game pushed him to 12th in WR scoring (16.21 FPPG) in PPR leagues. Brown is on pace to set career highs in catches (89.6) and receiving yards (1,307) while scoring four TDs in ten games. He now has 14 catches for 220 yards and three TDs in two games against the Dolphins. In his other eight games, he scored only one TD with success in Week 1 (7/123/1). The Broncos sit 3rd in WR defense (27.17 FPPG – 102/1271/5 on 166 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards (Tyrell Williams – 6/105/1 and Stefon Diggs – 5/121/1). This week Brown will draw CB Chris Harris in coverage, which sets up a low scoring game and a slim chance at a TD. An easy fade while being overpriced in the daily contests.
Kenny Golladay, DET (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,800)
In his two games without Matthew Stafford behind center, Golladay only has four catches for 91 yards and one TD on 14 targets. He slipped to 14th in WR scoring in PPR leagues with his best value coming in four games (25.70, 23.70, 29.30, and 23.20 Fantasy points). The Redskins are league average vs. WRs (35.09 FPPG – 117/1442/13 on 161 targets). Washington held WRs to fewer than 175 yards in each of their past eight games. Three WRs (DeSean Jackson – 8/154/2, Julian Edelman – 8/110/1, and Stefon Diggs – 7/143) have over 100 yards receiving vs. the Redskins. CB Josh Norman has been a disaster in coverage leading to many big plays and TDs allowed. Golladay has the skill set to play well in this matchup, but the downgrade in QB does make him a tougher play.
Amari Cooper, OAK (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,700)
The path of Cooper in 2019 has been pretty to easy to read. He’s a beast at home (39/673/5 or 29.66 Fantasy points) while coming up empty on too many days on the road (17/213/2 or 10.06 Fantasy points) while playing five games at home and away. The Patriots have the top WR defense (22.81 FPPG – 103/1073/0 on 202 targets). WRs have a 50.9 percent catch rate against New England, with one WR gaining over 100 yards (Golden Tate – 6/102/1). CB Stephon Gilmore holds wide receivers to low catch rate with no TDs allowed. Clear fade.
Allen Robinson, CHI (DK – $6,500/FD – $7,500)
Over the past month, Robinson saw a step back in value (5/62/1/6, 6/86, and 4/15 on 27 combined targets). He played well in three (7/102, 7/97/2, and 10/87/1) of his first six games. His recent fade pushed him down to 19th in WR scoring (13.83 FPPG). The Giants rank 30th in WR defense (41.23 FPPG – 135/1936/14 on 191 targets). Six WRs gained over 100 yards against New York (Michael Gallop – 7/158, Amari Cooper – 6/106/1, Mike Evans – 8/190/3, Adam Thielen – 7/130/2, Julian Edelman – 9/113, and Kenny Golladay – 6/123/2). CB DeAndre Baker has been a disaster in too many games allowing huge yards per catch and more than a handful of TDs. Robinson should be active in this matchup with a chance at a playable game.
Calvin Ridley, ATL (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,700)
The writing was on the wall for Ridley to have a big game last week based on his success vs. Carolina in 2018 (seven catches for 154 yards and two TDs on ten targets) paired with the loss of Austin Hooper in the Falcons’ passing game. He finished with his best game of the year (8/143/1) while having a favorable salary ($5,500). Before last week, Ridley has 24 catches for 302 yards and two TDs over 40 targets over his next seven games. His season started with two good games (4/64/1 and 8/105/1). Last year he had only eight catches for 79 yards and one TD on eight targets in two games against Tampa. CB Sean Murphy-Bunting allowed a TD in each of is previous three games while continuing to hold WRs to short yards per catch. Possible follow-through, but his higher salary does require 26-plus Fantasy points.
D.J. Moore, CAR (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,400)
There’s been a lot to like about Moore over his last three games (7/101, 9/120, and 8/95). Over this span, he had 36 targets while extending his scoreless streak to seven games. His only TD came on a 52-yard bomb in Week 3. Moore now ranks 17th in WR scoring (14.74 FPPG) in PPR leagues while lacking an impact game on his 2019 resume. The Saints moved to 19th in WR defense (35.93 FPPG – 119/1694/10 on 211 targets), with most of their failure coming over the first three games (14/216/3, 10/227/1, and 19/299/1). With CB Marshon Lattimore injured, P.J. Williams will need to step up in coverage. Moore should be the better player in the WR/CB matchup, but he can’t be an asset without finding pay dirt. A possible chaser game does work in his favor. New Orleans struggled vs. four WRs (DeAndre Hopkins – 8/111/2, Cooper Kupp – 5/120, Tyler Lockett – 11/154/1, and Chris Godwin – 7/125/2), with all of the damage coming over the first five weeks.
D.J. Chark, JAC (DK – $6,400/FD – $7,000)
In his first games with Nick Foles behind center since Week 1, Chark caught eight passes for 104 yards and two TDs on a season-high 15 targets. He moved to fifth in WR scoring (18.06 FPPG). His other two impact games came in Week 1 (4/146/1 and 8/164/2). He averages 5.1 catches for 80 yards and 0.80 TDs per game. In Week 3, Chark finished with a steady game (4/76/1) vs. the Titans. Tennessee sits 18th in WR defense (35/71 FPPG – 129/1684/8 on 198 targets) with the most damage coming in Week 10 (KC – 21/315/2). CB Adoree Jackson will have the edge in speed while holding WRs to low yards per catch and minimal damage in TDs. The Jaguars will try to get Chark in more favorable matchups while Jackson tends to stay on one side of the field. A rising player with an improving opportunity.
Jarvis Landry, CLE (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,900)
One half of the WR core in Cleveland has emerged over the past three games. Landry picked a TD in his last three starts with playable value in the season-long games over his previous seven contests (8/167, 4/75, 3/36, 5/65, 6/51/1, 9/97/1, and 4/43/1). He ranks 20th in WR scoring (13.75 FPPG) while being on pace for seven catches for 1,107 yards and five TDs. CB Jomal Wiltz started three of their last four games for with no significant damage. Wiltz signed as an undrafted free agent with the Eagles in 2017. Landry is facing his former team with a favorable matchup.
D.K. Metcalf, SEA (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,700)
Over the past two games, Metcalf had the best opportunity (19 combined targets) of the season, which led to one impact game (6/123/1) and one steady showing (6/70). His bump in value pushed his season average to 3.5 catches for 60 yards and 0.50 TDs or 12.5 FPPG. The Seahawks look his way 6.4 times per game. CB Ronald Darby does have some risk in 2019 while showing some improvement in the previous three games. I view him as better play at home (14.06 FPPG) than on the road (11.26 FPPG). Overpriced for his opportunity.
Courtland Sutton, DEN (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,800)
Sutton almost has a matchup-proof feel after playing well in his past two games (5/56/1 and 5/113) while playing with a third-string QB. He gained over 70 yards in seven games with three other strong showings (19.00, 24.20, and 19.20). Sutton scored over 10.00 Fantasy points in nine of ten games while averaging 7.7 targets per game. The Bills slip to 10th in WR defense (31.72 FPPG – 134/1470/4 on 218 targets) while showing more Risk defending WRs in the last two games (15/161/2 and 17/246). Only one WR has over 100 yards receiving against Buffalo (7/135). CB Tre’Davious White is a top CB with no TDs allowed. The Bills used him as shadow CB over the past three games. Tough to sit in the season-long games based on his floor in most weeks, even with questionable QB play.
Jamison Crowder, NYJ (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,500)
Crowder has been a nice ride over his path three games (8/83/1, 5/81/1, and 5/76/1), helping him to 23rd in WR scoring (12.76 FPPG). His only other contest of value came in Week 1 (14/99). He’s trending toward an 80-plus season (85/899/5) with strength in his catch rate (72.6). Oakland bumped up to 21st in WR defense (37.49 FPPG – 117/1768/12 on 187 targets). Six WRs gained over 100 yards receiving vs. Oakland (Courtland Sutton – 7/120, Demarcus Robinson – 6/172/2, Marquez Valdes-Scantling – 2/133/1, DeAndre Hopkins – 11/109), Kenny Golladay – 4/132/1, and Marvin Jones – 8/126/1). CB Nevin Lawson returned to the starting lineup for the Raiders last week while failing to be tested by the Bengals. Lawson will hold WRs to short yards per catch, but he’ll give up some TDs and occasional damage on big plays. Fantasy owners will be drawn to him in this matchup in the daily games.
Marvin Jones, DET (DK – $6,100/FD – $7,200)
More times than not, Jones has surprised over the past five weeks. For some reason, his best play has come on odds weeks since Week 1 (6/101/1, 10/93/4, 8/126/1, and 4/43/2). Jones ranks 11th in WR scoring (16.49 FPPG) while being on pace for 82 catches for 1,048 yards and 13 TDs. Even with a high path, he averages only 6.8 targets per game. CB Quinton Dunbar has been the Redskins’ top CB in 2019 while allowing short yards per catch and one TD on the year. Based on his chances and salary, I seem risk than reward here.
Terry McLaurin, WAS (DK – $6,100/FD – $5,800)
McLaurin went down as an underachiever in Week 11 (3/69 on four targets), but he did have a 67-yard catch called back due to a penalty. Over his last four games, McLaurin caught 12 balls for 158 yards on 18 targets. He shined over the first three games (5/125/1, 5/62/1, and 6/70/1). His other impact game (4/100/2) came in Week 6 vs. the Dolphins. Detroit is 23rd in WR defense (38.52 FPPG – 134/1827/11 on 228 targets). Four WRs (Larry Fitzgerald – 8/113/1, Stefon Diggs – 7/142, Michael Gallop – 9/148, and Randall Cobb – 4/115/1) have over 100 yards receiving vs. Detroit. McLaurin will draw Darius Slay in coverage who shadowed Amari Cooper (3/38) last week. I see more downside with a slim chance at a TD unless Washington gets him matched up with the Lions’ weaker CBs.
Tyrell Williams, OAK (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,400)
Since returning from his three-week vacation, Williams has 13 catches for 246 yards and one TD in 19 targets. His season started with a TD in five straight games with his best value coming in Week 1 (6/105/1). Overall, he averages 5.4 targets per game. New York lost its way defending WRs (31st – 41.38 FPPG – 139/1785/15 on 221 targets) after struggling vs. WRs in three games (13/202/3, 15/181/3, and 16/232/4). Four WRs (John Brown – 7/123/1, Odell Beckham – 6/161/1, Chris Conley – 4/103/1, and Darius Slayton – 10/121/2) gained over 100 yards receiving against New York. CB Blessuan Austin made his first NFL start last week with no big plays allowed vs. the Redskins. Based on chances, Williams is a tough start, but his matchup does give him upside if he hits on a long TD.
Michael Gallop, DAL (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,800)
Gallop turned into a beast in Week 11 (9/148), which was his third plus game (7/158 and 7/113/1) in eight starts. His path over eight games points to 84 catches for 1,356 yards and six TDs on 138 targets. The Patriots will match him up with CB Jason McCourty, who is playing the best pass coverage of his career. Over previous seasons, McCourty would allow plenty of yards while being targeted many times. Gallop may score a TD and post a midteen score, but New England won’t play this game at a fast pace.
Golden Tate, NYG (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,400)
Over his last five games, Tate caught 30 passes for 404 yards and three TDs on 44 targets, which works out to 17.68 Fantasy points in PPR leagues. He averaged 8.8 targets per game over this span. The Bears are fourth in WR defense (27.23 FPPG – 115/1333/4 on 181 targets) thanks to only one WR TD allowed over the last seven games. Two WRs (Stefon Diggs – 7/108 and Michael Thomas – 9/131) gained over 100 yards receiving vs. Chicago. CB Buster Skrine holds WRs to low yards per catch with a couple of TDs allowed. Below par matchup with some downside in chances with Sterling Shepard expected to play.
Curtis Samuel, CAR (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,700)
Samuel has four catches or fewer in his previous seven games while failing to gain over fifty yards receiving in five of those games. His only game of value came in Week 6 (4/78/2). CB Eli Apple is a league-average player who will allow some big plays and TDs. Samuel continues to have a low catch rate (50.7) while averaging 7.5 targets per game. Even with scoring ability, his salary looks to be too high for his expected output.
Darius Slayton, NYG (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,300)
Slayton was worth a million dollars to some lucky Fantasy owner in Week 10 when he delivered an impact game (10/121/2). He also flashed in Week 5 (4/62/1) and Week 8 (2/50/2) while working as a starting WR for four games with Sterling Shepard injured. With Shepard expected back this week, Slayton won’t see enough chance to be in play at his salary level.
Devante Parker, MIA (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,000)
Over the past seven games, Parker has been a lockdown WR3 in PPR leagues. He caught 34 of his 52 targets over this stretch with 473 yards and four TDs, which works out to 15.04 Fantasy points per game. Last week Parker gained over 100 yards for the first time in 2019 (7/135). Miami looked his way 44 times over his previous five contests. The Browns rank 9th in WR defense (31.35 FPPG – 116/1454/9 on 194 targets). Cleveland lost their top pass rusher last week, which will give Ryan Fitzpatrick a larger passing window. Denzel Ward is a top cover cornerback with only one TD allowed. Playing well while Miami will need to throw to win.
James Washington, PIT (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,100)
With the Steelers battling injuries last week, Washington emerged as the top receiving option (3/49). The previous week he also led Pittsburgh in WR scoring (6/90/1). He now has 13 catches for 208 yards and a TD on 16 targets over his last three games. With Juju Smith-Schuster out this week, Washington will have a WR1 opportunity. The Bengals are 11th in WR defense (32.21 FPPG – 103/1599/8 on 153 targets) struggled in two games (13/241/1 and 12/329/2). Only a flier.
Tyler Boyd, CIN (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,600)
The drop in QB play in Cinci led to Boyd coming up empty in Week 11 (one catch for ten yards). Over his previous three games, he caught 17 passes for 182 yards on 31 targets. His best play came with Andy Dalton starting at QB in Week 2 (10/122) and Week 5 (10/123/1). On the year, Boyd averages 19.55 Fantasy points at home. In Week 4, he caught only three passes for 33 yards on six targets against the Steelers. Pittsburgh is 14th in WR defense (33.74 FPPG – 117/1566/10 on 186 targets) with their last nine opponents gaining fewer than 200 yards receiving from the WR position. Volume WR with success at home, but the lack of QB for the Bengals makes him a tough start in the daily games.
Sterling Shepard, NYG (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,500)
After missing five games with a concussion issue, the Giants should have him in the starting lineup this week. Over his four games played, he caught 25 passes for 267 yards and one TD with one impact game (7/100/1). His matchup is neutral as far as CB coverage, but the Bears will limit his chances. I need to see a game before taking him for a ride in the daily tournaments.
Robby Anderson, NYJ (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,400)
Over the last five games, Anderson only has nine catches for 103 yards and one TD on 24 targets. Even with a downtick in value, he remains the WR1 in snaps for New York. His only game of value came in Week 6 (5/125/1) at home. CB Trayvon Mullen allows low yards per catch with two TDs allowed. Only a gamble.
