Tight Ends
Travis Kelce, KC (DK – $6,900/FD – $6,700)
At the halfway point of 2019, Kelce is trailing his excellent success in 2019 (103/1336/10). He’s on pace for 84 catches for 1,208 yards and four TDs in 135 targets. His opportunity is down about ten percent compared to last year (9.4 targets per game – 8.1 targets in 2019) while still looking to find his scoring rhythm. With Matt Moore at QB in Week 8, he caught four of his eight targets for 63 yards and one TD. His only game supporting his top shelve salary came in Week 2 (7/107/1). The Vikings are 17th in TE defense (11.64 FPPG – 51/459 on 77 targets) with two teams having success in catches and yards (OAK – 14/135 and PHI – 9/102). With Minnesota not allowing a TD to a TE in 2019 and the Chiefs having a downgrade at QB, I’d put Kelce in the steady column. His higher salary and matchup will make him a lower percentage own in Week 9.
Darren Waller, OAK (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,800)
For the first time in 2019, Waller had a tough time getting open vs. the Texans. He caught only two of his eight targets for 11 yards while scoring his third TD of the year over the previous two games. Before Week 8, he had an unbelievable catch rate (88.0) with two impact games (13/134 and 7/126/2). The Raiders have looked his way 7.3 times per game over the first seven contests. The Lions do have some risk defending TEs (22nd – 13.09 FPPG on 35 catches for 445 yards and two TDs) with most of the damage coming in two games (KC – 9/128 and MIN – 10/118/2). Detroit did play well defending the Eagles’ TEs in Week 3 (4/64 on eight targets). Waller’s salary ($6,300) requires almost 25.0 Fantasy points, which would force him to extend his TD streak with a run at 100 yards receiving to be in play. I’ll call him a maybe if this game is played at fast pace.
Hunter Henry, LAC (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,400)
With two excellent games (8/100/2 and 6/97) after missing four games with a knee injury, Henry had a step back in value in Week 8 (4/47 on six targets). Over four games, he has 22 catches for 304 yards and two TDs on 112 targets, which is on pace (88/1216/8) for a Travis Kelce type season. His catch rate (78.6) commands more looks. The Packers fell to 26th in TE defense (14.45 FPPG – 42/445/4 on 60 targets) after the Raiders dusted them at TE in Week 7 (11/172/2). In their other two games vs. top TEs, Green Bay also showed risk (PHI – 9/81/1 and KC 4/63/1). Henry comes into this week with a high salary, which will make him tougher to squeeze in, especially for Fantasy owners looking to roster an elite RB. I’m going to give him the green tag with this game expected to have a battle on the scoreboard.
Zack Ertz, PHI (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,000)
There is no doubt that Ertz falls in the soft zone for daily owners looking for salary relief at TE in Week 9 while still adding a quality player. His game has been rather disappointing in 2019 (73/424/1 on 64 targets) when comparing it to his excellent success in 2018 (116/1163/8). Ertz struggled to get open in his previous two games (2/38 and 2/20 on ten combined targets), pushing him down to 7th in TE scoring (10.80 FPPG) in PPR leagues. The Bears are 23rd in the NFL defending the TE position (13.09 FPPG – 39/406/2 on 52 targets) with two poor showings (GB – 6/72/1 and OAK – 10/107). I don’t have Ertz as an edge as far as projections when adding the uptick in value for his teammate at TE (Dallas Goedert), but he does have the resume and upside to work at this salary level.
Jimmy Graham, GB (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,400)
The money pit of Graham returned in Week 8 when he caught three of his five targets for 20 yards. He now has five games with 30 yards or fewer receiving, which include a pair of goose eggs in Week 2 and 3. His best two games (6/61/1 and 4/65/1) came at home in two favorable matchups. On the year, Graham averages only 4.1 targets per game while being on pace for 42 catches for 468 yards and six TDs. The Chargers are 11th in TE defense (10.04 FPPG – 27/353/3 on 43 targets) with most of the damage coming in one game (HOU – 8/122/3). Easy avoid with more risk than reward. His only saving grace is his ability to score paired with his low salary.
Vance McDonald, PIT (DK – $4,100/FD – $5,300)
The downgrade at QB in Pittsburgh pushed down the expected value of McDonald in 2019. In his six games played, he has only 17 catches for 146 yards and two TDs on 21 targets with his best game coming in Week 2 (7/38/2). The Colts are 27th defending TEs (14.50 FPPG – 42/415/3 on 57 targets). Indy struggled vs. TEs in two games (ATL – 9/78/2 and OAK – 10/83/1) while doing a nice job slowing down Travis Kelce (4/70 on ten targets). More of dart than a player to target even with Mason Rudolph looking better last week.
Jonnu Smith, TEN (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,500)
Smith was the value play at TE last week, and the tea leaves were pretty easy to read about his upside and opportunity. He finished with six catches for 78 yards and a TD with seven targets. Over the last two games with starting snaps with Delanie Walker injured, he caught nine passes for 142 yards and a TD on ten targets. The Panthers are 8th in TE defense (9.69 FPPG – 26/308/2 on 34 targets) with some slide defending TEs in the previous three games (4/61, 4/82/1, and 6/86). Tough to believe in follow through with his success drawing more attention by defenses going forward, but his salary is favorable.
T.J. Hockenson, DET (DK – $3,700/FD – $5,000)
Since his explosive game in Week 1 (6/131/1), Hockenson only has 13 catches for 109 yards and a TD on 22 targets while ranking 15th in TE scoring. Hidden in his stat line is multiple chances at TEs at the goal line. The Raiders are 29th defending TEs (15.96 FPPG – 34/443/6 on 52 targets) with failure defending TEs in four of their last six games (KC – 7/107/1, IND – 5/70/2, GB – 4/65/1, and HOU – 8/69/2). Oakland will come into this game looking to slow down Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones, which sets up a sneaky matchup for Hockenson. I’ll stick my neck out here – I see his second-best game of his career with chance at 100-plus yards receiving and a TD. Viable low-value hookup while priced to pay off.
Eric Ebron, IND (DK – $3,600/FD – $5,200)
Ebron failed to build on his progress in Week 7 (4/70/1) against the Broncos (3/26 on four targets). Over seven games, he has only 16 catches for 232 yards and three TDs on 29 targets. His catch rate (55.2) is a liability along with his opportunity (4.1 targets per game). The Steelers are 25th in TE defense (13.46 FPPG – 35/352/4 on 49 targets) with two poor games (SEA – 6/63/2 and LAC – 9/115/2). Ebron landed on the injury report on Thursday with an ankle, which pushes him to questionable for this week’s game. Low upside, but he does have scoring ability.
Greg Olsen, CAR (DK – $3,500/FD – $5,300)
There hasn’t been an Olsen sighting in the daily market since Week 3 (6/75/2. Over his past four games, he only has eight combined catches for 70 yards on 15 targets. The Titans sit 20th in TE defense (12.66 FPPG – 36/413/4 on 59 targets) with two teams gaining over 100 yards (ATL – 9/130 and LAC – 7/106). All four of their TDs allowed came over their first five games. Tough to get excited here, but his salary is low enough to be in play in Week 9. His matchup points to a midteen score with more upside if Olsen scores.
Ryan Griffin, NYJ (DK – $3,400/FD – $5,000)
After an empty resume (9/46/1 on 12 targets) over his first six games in 2019, Griffin was the top-scoring TE in Week 8 (4/66/2 on four targets). Chris Herndon doesn’t appear ready to play this week, so he’ll have another short to start. Miami hasn’t allowed over ten Fantasy points to a TE in their previous six games, even with a weak overall defense. Griffin is no chance at repeating and Miami will at least know his name in Week 9.
Kyle Rudolph, MIN (DK – $3,30/FD – $4,500)
The injury to Adam Thielen over the previous two games helped Rudolph have a pulse for one game. He played well in Week 7 (5/58/1) while lacking follow-through vs. Washington (3/17 on three targets) when the Vikings didn’t need to score to beat the Redskins. With Thielen expected back this week, his opportunity is just about nil. The Chiefs are 21st in TE defense (12.96 FPPG – 51.467/1 on 76 targets) with most of the success by TEs coming from chaser games when Patrick Mahomes was at the controls at QB. Maybe a play-action TD, but his targets can’t be trusted.
Dallas Goedert, PHI (DK – $3,100/FD – $5,000)
As the second TE in the Eagles’ offense, Goedert has gained value over his previous three games (5/48, 4/69/1, and 3/22/1) thanks to weakness at WR2 and WR3. His playing time has been about 70 percent over his last five games. With DeSean Jackson returning this week, his opportunity could slide. Goedert does have talent, and he is a much better player than Nelson Agholor, so the Eagles should try to run many two WR sets to keep him on the field. Only a gamble helped by his goal line value.
