The big semi-final Saturday is here and both sites have the four main games and FanDuel has a fifth game on their slate along with some really good contests (finally) for the big Saturday Bowl Action. Here are the five games that will be covered in this article and breakdown
- Arkansas State vs Nevada (Arizona Bowl), Over/Under: 56 — FanDuel Only
- South Carolina vs Virginia (Belk Bowl), Over/Under: 53.5
- Florida vs Michigan (Chic-Fila Bowl), Over/Under: 51
- Notre Dame vs Clemson (Cotton Bowl), Over/Under: 55
- Oklahoma vs Alabama (Orange Bowl), Over/Under: 77 (only)
Obviously the main event is the Oklahoma vs Alabama game with not only a whopping 77 over/under but two of the most explosive DFS offenses in College Football all season long. We’ll see that game be the heaviest owned and I do not encourage you to consider fading it.
QUARTERBACKS
Kyler or Tua, Kyler or Tua, Kyler or Tua…. It’s both folks. Not just because I think both teams can hit 40 burgers but because the other games on this slate really don’t offer much in terms of Quarterback options and so you’re essentially down 20 points at QB and S-FLEX by fading these two guys. They’re priced such that we can get both in, which is a little stupid if you ask me, but just take them and move on. If you want to look for a third option and you like doing weird things then look at Bryce Perkins for UVA and just tell yourself that you are fading two Heisman QB’s for a Virginia Quarterback and re-consider and play Kyler and Tua. Thanks…
- Kyler Murray – OU
- Tua Tagovailoa – BAMA
- Bryce Perkins – UVA
RUNNING BACKS
Without a doubt Travis Etienne is clear cut the best RB on the slate, but paying for him means taking some serious risks or longshots at Wide Receiver and I don’t know that this is Etienne putting up a 30+ point game against Notre Dame who was very good defensively all season long but if Clemson does damage then its through Etienne. But Trey Sermon and Damien Harris are logical plays in the OU-Bama projected shootout.
- Travis Etienne – Clemson
- Trey Sermon – OU
- Damien Harris – BAMA
In the mid-range but good match-up spots we have Jordan Ellis & Olamide Zaccheaus (UVA) and Rico Dowdle (SC) in the same game and both should be in line to get 10+ points.
- Jordan Ellis – UVA
- Olamide Zaccheaus – UVA — Used more as a WR
- Rico Dowdle – SC
The real money spot though is the Michigan backfield. This is a sneaky good game on a fast track and with Kiron Higdon sitting out we have a ton of value opportunity here. Florida’s rush defense can be run on and Michigan has a good offensive line to control the running game if they want. The three guys to look at in what is likely a committee approach are Chris Evans, Tru Wilson and Christian Turner who is a min priced 3k punt play on DraftKings to strongly consider with a OU-Bama stack
- Chris Evans
- Christian Turner – 3k on DK
WIDE RECEIVERS
This is where the slate will likely be won and if you are going into multi-entry you’ll want to diversify across the Bama/OU game and likely use four Wide Receivers (FLEX on DK) here.
Oklahoma Receiving Options
- Marquise Brown – OU … Brown is the best WR on either side in this game and Murray’s go to guy, the cost difference between him and Lamb isn’t enough to immediately fade Brown for Lamb and a lot of that is due to the Big 12 conference title game when Lamb had a huge game and Brown got hurt. But Brown is healthy and is someone I would definitely roster
- CeeDee Lamb – OU
- Lee Morris – OU … Morris is an interesting third option for OU and one I wouldn’t mind in game stacks.
- Grant Calcaterra – OU … Calcaterra is a big red zone threat for OU but a team with solid LB like BAMA is not necessarily the best spot for him.
BAMA Receiving Options
I think three of these guys (Jeudy/Waddle/Smith) will score a TD against Oklahoma, which isn’t really a stretch or bold prediction. If you feel that the game is going to be close then Jeudy is the safe go to guy over Henry Ruggs.
- Jerry Jeudy – BAMA
- Henry Ruggs – BAMA
- Jaylen Waddle – BAMA … Waddle’s speed vs OU? Dangerous.
- Irv Smith Jr – BAMA … Irv Smith to me is a sneaky stud and he is going to be a lock for me at $4500.
Other Guys to Look at …
- Hasise Dubois & Joe Reed – UVA … Reed should be the lower owned of the two
- Kadarius Toney – UF
FANDUEL SLATE
The only game that is on FanDuel and not DraftKings is the Arizona bowl between Nevada and Arkansas State. The passing game for Arkansas State could produce well but that means on FD you are going very thin on the OU-Bama game, but none the less its Justice Hansen (QB) and Kirk Merritt who would be the main targets. I like Nevada’s RB spot and Freshman Toa Taua led the team with 156 carries for 816 yards and 6 touchdowns on the season but a $200 difference on him vs someone like Kennedy Brooks (OU) just doesn’t make a ton of sense.
VALUE Options
QB:
- Kyler & Tua – Duh
- Justice Hansen – ARK St
RB:
- Marcell Murray – Nevada
- Kennedy Brooks – OU – $600 savings off Sermon
- TySon Williams – SCAR – Dowdle is the better play, but at $6200 he really opens up game stack of OU/Bama
WR:
- CeeDee Lamb – OU … Same logic as above I like Brown but Lamb for 1k cheaper on FD makes sense.
- Jaylen Waddle – BAMA … $7300 is just too cheap
- Justin McInnis – ARK St
- Amari Rogers – Clemson
- Omar Bayless – ARK St … Would be a one off value punt.
