At the end of each NFL season we are rewarded with some Saturday afternoon NFL games, and they’re really the best thing going. Just don’t pay attention to the teams next week yet as there’s some crappy games but this week we have two games that I think will be good to throw DFS lineups in with. I like to use the 2 game slates to get multiple lineups in but we can still rely upon single entry contests for the best ROI chances and thus you should focus on that as well. I’ll break down plays into three tiers for each position with the top tier being the most confident for single entry and the third tier being the longshots.
The % exposure next to each player is where I would focus my exposure on them if doing 10 lineups.
GAMES
Houston Texans (-7) at New York Jets … Light Rain
Cleveland Browns (-1) at Denver Broncos
QUARTERBACKS
DeShaun Watson (60% Exposure) .. Watson is someone I have always felt plays better when the national stage is focused on him — even back to his college days. And with this being considered somewhat a “prime-time” game I think he will show up. The Jets are a funnel defense to the pass and that could open up some big plays for Watson, who I don’t think will have a high completion % day by any stretch but could easily put up a stat line that resembles 18-29 for 275+ yards and 3 scores if he hits two big ones. The main target to correlate him with this week will be DeAndre Hopkins who is nothing short of a lock-button play on the small two game slate. Without Will Fuller, Hopkins has been the main go to guy for Watson but he has other options from his two TE’s and also DeMaryious Thomas who should be popular with a reduced price tag. Watson’s rush upside along with the player pool makes him the easy A+ play at Qarterback.
Baker Mayfield (25% Exposure) .. I like this late game to be higher scoring with the Browns/Broncos being fairly evenly matched and the Browns playing with a ton of confidence lately. This should be more of a RB game on both sides but the Browns will use their backs in the passing game more than the Broncos, which could benefit Baker Mayfield here.
RUNNING BACKS
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Phillip Lindsay (75% Exposure) .. The Broncos would be stupid to do anything short of giving Lindsay 20 touches this week and while Royce Freeman remains a vulture, it’s definitely clear that Lindsay is their feature back and against the Browns he should eat. Cleveland has given up over 100 yards in all but three games this year and the best way for Denver to stay in the game as home underdogs is to rely upon Lindsay.
Nick Chubb (50% Exposure) .. As you can tell I’ll be building a QB-WR core from the early game and a RB core from the late game. Cleveland’s running through Nick Chubb ever since he has taken over as the lead back. I think Duke Johnson is involved again this week but Chubb is hard to pass up.
Elijah McGuire (25% Exposure) .. You are better off attacking the Texans through the air, but with Crowell going on IR officially this will open up the volume for McGuire this week.
Contrarian Play: Alfred Blue (HOU)
WIDE RECEIVERS
DeAndre Hopkins (100% Exposure) .. Not much to say here. Best WR on the slate with a fantastic $$ matchup. 2 TD upside for sure.
Robbie Anderson (80% Exposure) .. I love Robbie Anderson here this week. He’s getting a matchup that I think he can exploit vertically as we’ve picked on Houston a ton this year and we saw Hilton burn them for some big plays last Sunday. No doubt Anderson and Hopkins will be a nice trendy correlation but lets not over think this with all the variance in the Broncos passing game, he is the main target for the Jets and should have a big play or two to hit his value.
Antonio Callaway (20% Exposure) … Both Callaway and Landry will draw the primary WR target options for Cleveland this week. I lean Callaway though because I’m locking in Hopkins and I don’t think Landry has the huge game he had last week again this week.
DeMaryius Thomas (30% Exposure) .. Nice game stack WR-WR option with Hopkins. I wouldnt get cute and go him over Nuk though.
Other Top Options: Courtland Sutton, Jarvis Landry
Contrarian Play: Tim Patrick (DEN)
TIGHT ENDS
Chris Herndon (40% Exposure) .. Tight-Ends versus Houston hasn’t really failed me yet this year.
Jordan Thomas (40% Exposure) .. I mentioned not going D.Thomas over Nuk Hopkins and one thing I would also look for this week is to stay on the Watson-Hopkins chalk but pivot off DT over to JT. Jordan Thomas has shown this year that he is a big red zone target for Houston when they get down there and all we need is 1 TD on this slate from TE to nail this position.
David Njoku (20% Exposure) .. I’m listing him because he is the primary chalk option at a bad position this week on the 2 game slate. That said, I like taking a risk with both Herndon and J.Thomas more than eating Njoku chalk when I think Cleveland uses the run game a ton.
DEFENSES
Houston (70% Exposure) .. I think Houston DST scores
AMBUSH CORE
Watson-Lindsay-Hopkins-Anderson
