FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
Michael Thomas (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,600): Thomas now has three electric games at home (16/180/1, 12/89/2, and 12/211/1) with two decent showings on the road (10/129 and 7/69/1). Michael has four games with double digits targets (17, 13, 10, and 15) and three short games (4, 5, and 6) while averaging 9.9 targets per game with an incredible catch rate (88.6). He’s on pace for 140 catches for 1,760 yards and ten TDs on 158 targets. The Bengals are 28th in the NFL vs. WRs (119/1626/9 on 194 targets) with two disaster games (ATL – 21/344/2 and TB – 19/360/2). Over the last five games, five WRs have over 100 yards receiving against the Bengals (Julio Jones – 9/173, Mohamed Sanu – 6/111, JuJu Smith-Schuster – 7/111, Antonio Brown – 5/105/1, and Mike Evans – 6/179/1). Thomas should have his way in this game leading to another 30+ Fantasy points with Cinci slated to have a weak CB option (William Jackson) defending him on most plays.
Tyler Boyd (DK – $7,500/FD – $7,800): Boyd has been special over his first eight games (49/620/5 on 66 targets) especially when considering that he went undrafted in most Fantasy leagues. Tyler has three games with over 100 yards receiving (6/132/1, 11/100, and 9/138/1) with all three games coming against NFC South opponents. Boyd averages 8.2 targets per game with more expected this week with A.J. Green injured. The Saints allow the most Fantasy points to WRs (131/1904/15 on 180 targets) with seven WRs gaining over 100 yards (Mike Evans – 7/147/1, DeSean Jackson – 5/146/2, Calvin Ridley – 7/146/3, John Brown – 7/134/1, Stefon Diggs – 10/119/1, Adam Thielen – 7/103/1, and Brandin Cooks – 6/114/1). Boyd plays mostly in the slot, which will get him favorable coverage on most plays vs. CB P.J. Williams. Possible 10+ catches for 100+ yards leaving him within a TD of an impact game.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $6,200/FD – $6,400): Landry has fewer than 70 yards receiving five of his last seven games while scoring two TDs over this span. Jarvis has three games of value (7/106, 8/103, and 10/97/1) while continuing to have a short catch rate (54.4). Landry is down to 10.5 yards per catch while being on pace for 98 catches for 1,028 yards and four TDs on 180 targets. Atlanta allows the 3rd most Fantasy points to WRs (115/1586/13 on 174 targets) with huge failure value in four games (CAR – 16/223/3, CIN – 18/238/2, TB – 17/273/1, and NYG – 14/321/1). CB Brian Poole hasn’t played well in coverage in 2018. He’ll give up some TDs while showing risk in his tackling ability. Landry should be active in this game with a TD being a very good outcome. In my thoughts at this level.
Josh Gordon (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,700): Gordon hit on a late 55-yard TD setting up his best game (5/130/1) of the season. Over the last three games, Josh has 13 catches for 272 yards and one TD on 23 targets. In his last four games, Josh has been on the field for about 85 percent of the plays run by New England. The Patriots may be motivated to test former CB Malcolm Butler who ranks as one of the worst CBs in 2018 with disaster downside in TDs and big plays. Gaining momentum with the talent to deliver a special game in this favorable matchup.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Mike Evans (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,500): Evans struggled to get open last week vs. Panthers leading to his worst game of the year (1/16), but he did have ten targets. Mike has five games with over 20 Fantasy points (7/147/1, 10/83/1, 6/137/1, 7/107, and 6/179/1) while averaging 9.75 targets per game. His catch rate fell to 60.2 percent after showing improvement over the first seven games of the year. He’s on pace for 94 catches for 1,572 yards and eight TDs on 156 targets. Washington fell to 24th in WR Fantasy defense (110/1489/10 on 161 targets) after allowing over 200 yards to WRs in four of the last five games (14/273/2, 15/211/1, 16/218, and 17/237/2). The Redskins will try to use CB Josh Norman on Evans on as many plays as possible leading to only a steady game or a fade in the daily space.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,600/FD – $7,500): Woods has five catches or more in his last eight games while gaining 70 yards or more in each of those games. His last TD came in Week 4 while delivering a special game in Week 3 (10/104/2). Robert is on pace for 91 catches for 1,321 yards and six TDs on 8.2 targets per game. Woods had five catches for 92 yards on seven targets in Week 5 against Seattle. This week he’ll draw CB Shaquill Griffin in coverage who will give up minimal yards per catch and short TDs. Not ideal at this salary level.
Calvin Ridley (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,600): After nine weeks, Ridley is the 16th rank WR in PPR leagues with one impact game (7/146/3). Calvin has fewer than 75 yards receiving in his last five games while averaging 5.8 targets over this period. Last week he did have a season-high nine targets with Mohamed Sanu a little banged up. Ridley is on a pace for 66 catches for 926 yards and 14 TDs on 88 targets. His catch rate (75.0) is elite, which screams more chances. Calvin has an interesting matchup with CB Denzel Ward who comes into the game with a slight hip issue. Ward is a top young talent at CB who will limit big plays and catch rate, but he will give up some TDs. Fade for me in the daily games, but the Falcons will get him in some favorable matchups.
Kenny Golladay (DK – $5,100/FD – $5,800): Golladay turned into a bust over his last three games (2/37, 1/12, and 3/46) while struggling to get targets (seven). Over his first five games, Kenny has three games of value (7/114, 6/89/1, and 4/98/1) while averaging 8.1 targets over this span. CB Kyle Fuller ranks highly at his position this week helped by four Ints and multiple defended passes. He will give up some big plays and TDs. Golladay does have scoring and big-play ability while looking like a low percentage own in Week 10.
Allen Robinson (DK – $5,000/FD – $6,300): After missing two games with a groin injury, the Bears expect to have Robinson back in the starting lineup this week. Allen has two TDs over six games while failing to score over 20 Fantasy points in any game. He averages 7.2 targets per game with a low catch rate (58.1). Detroit is sixth in the league against WRs (77/1127/10 on 113 targets) with failure in one game (GB – 19/297/2). Some of the Lions success vs. WRs has been a result of game score and game flow. Allen will see plenty of CB Darius Slay, which points to another boring game.
Corey Davis (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,800): Davis continues to fall short of draft day expectation. His only game of value (9/161/1 on 15 targets) came at home in Week 4. Corey is on pace for 72 passes for 902 yards and two TDs on 132 targets. He has fewer than 65 yards receiving in his seven other games. Last year Davis had a great game (5/63/2) in the playoff vs. New England. The Patriots are 15th in the NFL against WRs (116/1462/10 on 198 targets). His matchup vs. CB Stephon Gilmore is unfavorable, but Davis has a low enough salary where he may surprise in this game.
Danny Amendola (DK – $4.500/FD – $5,300): Over the last four games, Amendola has 24 catches for 243 yards and one TD on 31 targets while also passing a TD. Danny has a strong catch rate (78.4), but he’s gaining only 9.6 yards per catch. The Packers fell to 25th in WR Fantasy defense (90/1297/13 on 152 targets) with two teams having success (MIN – 23/282/4 and 14/231/1). CB Jaire Alexander is top young CB who will slow Danny down in this matchup.
Jordy Nelson (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,000): Nelson became Fantasy road kill over his last three games (2/6, 1/14, and 2/26) while receiving only ten combined targets. Jordy did appear to have a pulse from Week 3 to Week 5 when he caught 15 passes for 264 yards and three TDs on 20 targets highlighted by one impact game (6/173/1). The Raiders scored ten TDs in their last two games played at home in Oakland, but their WRs just about died in their last three games (10/62, 6/95/2, and 9/86). Fading badly while having questionable upside in chances.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
T.Y. Hilton (DK – $5,700/FD – $7,000): Over six games in 2018, Hilton is off to a slower pace than expected. His yards per catch (13.5) is his lowest since 2013 (13.2) with a drop in his catch rate (55.3). T.Y. has three steady games (7/83/1, 4/115, and 4/25/2) while averaging 7.8 targets per game. The Jaguars have the second-best defense in the league vs. WRs (89/1049/5 on 144 targets) with no team gaining over 180 yards from the WR position. A date with CB Jalen Ramsey looks unfavorable. Pure avoid in the daily games with fade as well in the season-long contests.
NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)
Julio Jones (DK – $8,300/FD – $8,700): Jones has three straight games with over 100 yards receiving (10/144, 9/104, and 7/121) while scoring his first TD of the year in Week 9. Quietly, Julio is on pace for his second best season in the NFL (120/1866/1 on 182 targets). His success pushed him to 7th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Jones averages 11.4 targets per game with a strong catch rate (65.9). The Browns are 22nd in the league defending WRs (125/1648/9 on 2013 targets) with four WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Cleveland (JuJu Smith-Schuster – 5/119, Amari Cooper – 8/128/1, Tyrell Williams – 3/118/2, and Mike Evans – 7/107). Atlanta moves their WRs around enough to get Julio in favorable situations on many plays. Cleveland has risk in coverage in two of their three CB slots, which gives Jones another chance at solid production in catches and yards while needing a TD to fill his salary bucket.
Davante Adams (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,600): Adams saw his three-game streak with over 100 yards receiving (9/140/1, 10/132/2, and 5/133) end last week (6/40/1), but he did score his seventh TD in eight games. Davante has a floor of five catches in each game while having five games with seven or more catches. He’s on a pace for 116 catches for 1,460 yards and 14 TDs on 174 targets. Miami is 8th the NFL defending WRs (99/1487/8 on 159 targets) with four WRs gaining over 100 yards (Jordy Nelson – 6/173/1, A.J. Green – 6/112. Taylor Gabrial – 5/110, and Will Fuller – 5/124/1). CB Xavien Howard will give up some TDs and long plays while doing a decent job minimizing a WRs catch rate. Playing well, but Miami needs to score to force the Packers to throw. Green Bay should have success running the ball in this matchup, which does steal some of the passing upside for their WRs.
Tyreek Hill (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,600): Hill has 70 yards or fewer receiving in six of his last seven games. He scored seven of his eight TDs on the road with two impact games (7/169/3 and 7/142/3). Tyreek averages 7.8 targets per game with about 1.5 rushes per game (12/61). Arizona is 10th in the NFL vs. WRs (111/1284/5 on 168 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards (Adam Thielen – 11/123/1 and Emmanuel Sanders – 6/102/1). CB Bene Benwikere started the last five games for the Cardinals while playing four games with low-value passing (SF X 2, SEA, and DEN). Hill will hit on a big play in this game with a chance to produce a playable game. Follow through in the passing game could be a problem if the Cardinals don’t put up a fight on the scoreboard.
Keenan Allen (DK – $7,100/FD – $7,900): Allen delivered his second game with over 100 yards receiving last week vs. the Seahawks (6/124 on ten targets plus two rushes for 28 yards). Keenum doesn’t have a TD in his last seven games. He’s on pace for 94 catches for 1,408 combined yards with two TDs on 132 targets. In Week 5, Allen had eight catches for 90 yards on nine targets against the Raiders. Oakland is 19th in the NFL vs. WRs (90/1344/11 on 149 targets) with no WR gaining over 100 yards receiving. CB Leon Hall will give up plenty of big plays and a high catch rate, which bolds well for Keenan to have a strong game in Week 10. Possible best game of the season with a good chance at a TD.
Julian Edelman (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,300): Edelman scored double digits Fantasy points in all five of his starts since returning from his injury, but he’s still looking for his first impact game. Julian average 8.8 targets per game with his best success coming in Week 8 (9/104). His path projected over 16 games would lead to 99 catches for 1,030 yards and six TDs on 141 targets. The Titans will give up Fantasy points to WRs (23rd – 106/1411/11 on 158 targets) with two teams being productive at WR (HOU – 17/268/2 and LAC – 11/258/2). His date with CB Logan Ryan should be favorable. Priced above his scoring ability in most weeks.
Brandin Cook (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,500): Cooks played well last week against the Saints (6/114/1), which was his third game with over 100 yards receiving (7/159 and 7/116/1). Brandin came up short in Week 8 (no catches or targets) after leaving early with a concussion. His other eight games projected over a full season would come to 82 catches for 1,514 yards and six TDs on 120 targets. Seattle ranks 18th defending WRs (103/1218/10 on 159 targets) with two WRs gaining over 100 yards receiving (Marvin Jones – 7/117/2 and Keenan Allen – 6/124). His matchup with CB Tre Flowers could be explosive as Cook owns the edge in speed. More viable if tied to Jared Goff.
Cooper Kupp (DK – $6,400/FD – $6,500): Kupp played well enough last week to be on the field for every play run by the Rams. He finished with a nice game (5/89/1), but he only saw six targets while receiving most of his production on one drive later in the second half. Over his six games played, Cooper is on pace for 93 catches for 1,405 yards and 16 TDs on 125 targets. CB Justin Coleman will have his hands full in this matchup. Kupp will catch most of his chances while remaining a top scoring option for LA in the red zone in the passing game. In a half of play in Week 5 vs. Seattle, Cooper caught six of his nine targets for 90 yards and one TD. Best Rams’ WR option for me in Week 10, but his targets would be elite without a high battle on the scoreboard.
Marvin Jones (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,200): Jones played pretty well last week (6/66 on eight targets) when adding in that Matthew Stafford spent most of the game on his back. Over his last two games, Marvin has 13 catches for 183 yards and two TDs on 18 targets. He’s on a pace for 64 catches for 906 yards and ten TDs on 110 targets while expecting more chances over the second half of the year with Golden Tate catching balls in Philly. Chicago sits 21st in the league against WRs (113/1449/7 on 169 targets) while showing risk in four games vs. WRs (GB – 19/299/3, MIA – 18/281/2, TB – 19/229, and NE – 16/207/1). The Lions’ passing offense should rebound this week while being helped if Khalil Mack doesn’t play. His CB/WR matchup looks neutral.
Sammy Watkins (DK – $5,400/FD – $6,600): Watkins is trending toward not playing this week with a foot issue. Over the last three games, Sammy caught 19 of his 21 targets for 243 yards with two TDs. His success in his eight full games projects to 78 catches for 1,30 yards and six TDs. To much risk to play in the daily games with the Chiefs favored by 17 points.
Larry Fitgerald (DK – $5,400/FD – $5,800): Fitzgerald finally delivered an impact game (8/102/1) in Week 8 while receiving a season-high 12 targets. Larry now has a TD in his last two games while failing to gain over 40 yards receiving in one other game (7/76). He’s on pace for 68 catches for 714 yards and four TDs while averaging 6.8 targets per game. The Chiefs improved to 20th in WR Fantasy defense (130/1616/7 on 224 targets) after starting the year with two bad games against WRs (LAC – 16/198/2 and PIT – 24/216/2). Over the last six games, WRs only have two TDs vs. KC. CB Kendall Fuller is a league average player who will give up yards and catches. A chaser game does help his floor in catches.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,300): Baldwin showed a spark in two of his last three games (6/91 and 4/77), but he only has 15 targets over his last three starts. This week Baldwin is back on the injury report in Week 10 with a groin issue, which may put him at risk to play on Sunday. The Rams are league average vs. WRs (98/1482/13 on 149 targets) with huge struggles vs. WRs in four of their last six games (MIN – 25/338/3, DEN – 13/230/2, GB – 14/263/1, and 14/234/2). CB Nickell Robey-Coleman will allow a high catch rate with minimal yards per play and short TDs allowed. Need more info while game score should lead Seattle throwing a lot more passes giving Baldwin a chance at his best game of the season.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,400): The future for Valdes-Scantling looks bright over the second half of 2018 with Geronimo Allison done for the year and Randall Cobb continuing to battle injuries. Over the last four games, Marquez has 15 catches for 317 yards and two TDs on 28 targets. He’ll enter this week’s game as the clear WR2 for the Packers while offering big play ability. His catch rate (51.5) is short, which was the case in his college career (52.8 percent). Miami has issues at their second outside CB slot, which points to a chance at a big game. Solid plays in the season-long games while being worth a flier in the daily games in GPPs.
Christian Kirk (DK – $4,900/FD – $5,400): Over the last six games, Kirk has 26 catches for 379 yards and two TDs on 37 targets. He continues to get WR2 targets with a chance at more looks with Chad Williams battling an ankle injury. CB Orlando Scandrick played well over the first nine games for the Chiefs leading to a low catch rate and short yards per catch. Talented player with future value, but his matchup may not be as exciting as it looks on paper.
DeSean Jackson (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300): Jackson fell short of expectations last week when he caught two of his four targets for 32 yards. Over his last four games, DeSean has 11 catches for 202 yards and one TD on 25 targets compared to his great start over the first four games of the year (17/424/3 on 22 targets). Jackson remains the WR4 for the Bucs who tends to get on the field for about 50 percent of the plays run by Tampa over the last month. Boom or bust player who tends to be a matchup problem for most teams.
Tyler Lockett (DK – $4,800/FD – $6,200): Lockett has three catches or fewer in each of his last four games while receiving only 14 combined targets over this stretch. Tyler scored a TD on six of his first seven games, but he failed to score over 20.0 Fantasy points in any game. In Week 5, he caught three of his four targets for 98 yards and one TD vs. the Rams. Lockett will face CB Marcus Peters in coverage who continues to give big plays and TDs. If game score points to more passes, Tyler has a very good chance to set a season-high in catches and targets in this matchup.
DeDe Westbrook (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,400): Westbrook has been rather boring over his last four games (3/55, 3/38, 4/17, and 2/31), but he did score a pair of TDs over this span while averaging only five targets per game. DeDe has two playable games (4/82/1 and 9/130) while receiving only six targets per game on the year. The Colts moved to 11th in WR defense (101/1196/9 on 140 targets) after holding WRs to fewer than 200 yards in seven of their eight games. Houston is the only team to have success with their WRs (26/340/2) vs. Indy. Tough to trust his opportunity in the daily games.
Donte Moncrief (DK – $4,700/FD – $5,500): Moncrief has WR2 snaps over the last two games leading to 11 catches for 130 yards on 17 targets. He played well in Week 4 (5/109/1) and Week 5 (6/76) while coming up empty in his other four games (1/14, 4/34/1, 2/16, and 0/0). His catch rate (51.8) is short while averaging seven targets per game. CB Nate Hairston will give up plenty of catches with big plays and some TDs. Wrong kind of player for the daily dance.
Tre’Quan Smith (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,600): Over the last three games, Smith has eight catches for 85 yards and one TD on 13 targets. His game flashed big-play ability in Week 5 (3/111/2). Tre’Quan had WR2 snaps for New Orleans over the last four games, but his playing time will start to trend backward with Dez Bryant added to the Saints roster. Low volume receiver with big-play ability who falls into the gamble column.
Tyrell Williams (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,500): Over the last three games, Williams caught nine passes for 259 yards and four TDs on 11 targets. Tyrell doesn’t have a game with more than four catches while averaging only 3.75 targets per game. In Week 5, Tyrell caught three passes for 66 yards vs. the Raiders. Williams needs the Chargers to chase on the scoreboard to have any playable value in the daily games. The Chargers will beat Oakland with their RBs and TEs, which points another empty day for Tyrell.
Josh Docton (DK – $4,300/FD – $4,900): Doctson isn’t going to be an impactful WR in the NFL. In his seven starts this year, Josh only has 19 catches for 190 yards and one TD on 35 targets. Over the last four games, he caught 14 combined passes for 142 yards and one TD on 22 targets. Tampa allows the second-most Fantasy points to WRs (123/1472/14 on 162 targets). A favorable matchup, but sometimes you can’t lead a thirsty man to an ocean of open field. Makes sense based on salary and matchup, but I can’t make a case to start him in the daily games.
DeVante Parker (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,400): The excitement of Parker in Week 8 (6/134 on nine targets) was short lived the next week in a boring game. DeVante has starting snaps, but he only had one catch for eight yards on two targets. This week he’ll draw CB Bashaud Breeland in coverage who struggled in Week 9 vs. the Patriots in his first start after signing a couple of weeks ago. His playing time points to more chances plus the Packers should force the Dolphins to chase on the scoreboard.
Chris Godwin (DK – $4,000/FD – $5,500): Godwin has been the odd man out in the Bucs’ passing game over the last two games (2/32 and 2/40 on ten combined targets). Chris scored a TD in four of his first five games with a mid-teen score in four games (3/34/1, 5/56/1, 5/74/1, and 6/56/1). He’s on pace for 60 catches for 760 yards and eight TDs on 94 targets. Only a flier at this point of the year.
Adam Humphries (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,700): Humphries had WR2 snaps for Tampa in 2018, but his Fantasy value didn’t emerge until the last two weeks (7/76 and 8/82/2) while receiving 27 targets over his last three games. Adam is on pace for 70 catches for 756 yards and two TDs on 100 targets. His ticket came in last week, which means I’ll avoid him in the daily games in Week 10.
Maurice Harris (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,900): Harris landed on the Fantasy map in Week 10 after gaining more playing time after Paul Richardson suffered an injury. He caught ten of his 12 targets for 124 yards, which almost matched his stats over his previous four games (11/102 on 17 targets). Harris has size (6’3″ and 200 lbs.) while having minimal success in college (81/909/10) over four seasons at the University of California. Worth a flier if you’re shopping at this level in the daily games.
David Moore (DK – $3,900/FD – $5,800): After success in three games (3/38/2, 2/47/1, and 4/97/1) while receiving only 14 combined targets, Moore struggled in Week 9 (2/16 on seven targets). David moved into WR3 status in Week 4 is when Doug Baldwin returned to the field. In Week 5, Moore did surprise the Rams (3/38/2), which won’t be the case in this game. CB Troy Hill has disaster risk in big plays and TDs, which gives David a fighter’s chance of playing off with Russell Wilson throwing him the ball.
Anthony Miller (DK – $3,800/FD – $5,300): Miller had starting stats in the last two games for the Bears, which led to eight combined catches for 86 yards and one TD on 16 targets. In both games, Chicago played from the lead with minimal chances in the passing game. This week Anthony will slip back to the WR3 while running most of his plays out of the slot. I like his upside, but Miller still lacks opportunity be a play in the daily games.
