FAVORABLE MATCHUPS (CASH/GPP)
A.J. Green (DK – $8,000/FD – $8,800): Last week Green had a season-high in targets (10) and yards (112). He’s yet to have over six catches in any game while averaging 8.6 targets per game. His success this year is driven by five TDs. Last year A.J. had seven catches for 77 yards and two TDs at home against the Steelers with a short outcome on the road (3/41). WRs have 69 catches for 1,081 yards and eight TDs on 116 targets vs. Pittsburgh with four WR gaining over 100 yards (Jarvis Landry – 7/106, Sammy Watkins – 6/100, Mike Evans – 6/137/1, and John Brown (3/116/1). CB Joe Haden played well so far in 2018, but Cinci will try to get Green in more favorable matchups against the Steelers’ weaker outside CBs. An explosive type game if game flow falls in line with its expected path.
Julio Jones (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,500): After five games, Jones is the 16th highest scoring WR in PPR leagues with no TDs. His best production came in Week 1 (10/169) and Week 4 (9/173) while averaging 11 targets per game on the year. Last season Julio roasted Tampa for 12 catches for 253 yards and two TDs on 15 targets at home while coming up empty on the road (3/54 on eight targets). WRs have 66 catches for 742 yards and nine TDs on 81 targets against the Bucs while allowing an incredibly high 81.5 percent catch rate to WRs. Four WRs have strong games against Tampa (Michael Thomas – 16/180/1, Nelson Agholor – 8/88/1, JuJu Smith-Schuster – 9/116, and Taylor Gabriel – 7/104/2). A very winnable matchup, but he does need to find the end zone at least once to pay off at this level.
Tyler Boyd (DK – $6,000/FD – $6,300): Boyd struggled to make plays last week vs. the Dolphins at home, which led to four catches for 44 yards on seven targets. Over his previous three games, Tyler caught 23 of his 31 passes for 323 yards and two TDs. Pittsburgh has huge issues at CB2 and CB3, which invites impact potential in this matchup.
Robby Anderson (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500): For the fifth straight games, Anderson had six or fewer targets with failing to catch more than three balls in any game. The difference from last week from the previous four games was that Robby hit on two long TDs, which led to three catches for 123 yards and one TD. The outside CBs on the Colts do have risk, which is a positive sign for Anderson. Look for him to gain momentum in this matchup while getting a jump in targets.
Chris Godwin (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,900): Godwin score a TD in his first three games while seeing three targets inside the five-yard line in Week 3. His best success came against Pittsburgh (5/74/1). On the year, Chris continues to get WR3 snaps for the Bucs. A shootout game gives him plenty of upside while being in a backend battle for targets.
MATCHUP RISK / AGAINST THE GRAIN (GPP)
Stefon Diggs (DK – $7,600/FD – $8,200): Diggs has double-digit targets in each of his last four games, but he hasn’t scored a TD since Week 2. Over his last two games, Stefon has 21 catches for 214 yards on 26 targets. His only impact game came in Week 2 (9/128/2) vs. the Packers. Diggs has the higher chance of seeing CB Patrick Peterson in coverage on many plays, which will temper my expectations in this week’s matchup. More runs by the Vikings would also hurt his ability to reach a high level of catches. A fade for me.
Cooper Kupp (DK – $6,500/FD – $6,800): Kupp was well on his way to another impact game last week when he caught six of his nine targets for 90 yards and one TD in the first half against the Seahawks. He now has five TDs on the year with 30 catches for 438 yards on 41 targets. Over his last game and a half, Cooper has 15 catches for 252 yards and three TDs on 20 targets. He left last week game at halftime with a concussion issue. I expect him to play this week. The Broncos best CB Chris Harris lines up on most plays in the slot, which will limit Kupp’s scoring ability unless LA gets him matchup in some better situations.
Corey Davis (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,300): Davis is batting .200 on the year leading to one impact game (9/161/1) and four short outings (6/62, 5/55, 2/34, and 4/49). Corey averages nine targets per game with a short catch rate (57.8 percent). He did play three games on the road. WRs have 66 catches for 745 yards and six TDs on 113 targets vs. the Ravens with no WR gaining over 100 yards. Baltimore did fail to cover the Bengals’ top two WRs in Week 2 (Tyler Boyd – 6/91/1 and A.J. Green – 5/69/3). Overpriced for me and the Titans don’t throw enough to trust him in this matchup.
Allen Robinson (DK – $5,700/FD – $6,500): Robinson was only a small part of the Bears’ scoring party in Week 4. He scored an early TD, but he finished with only two catches for 23 yards on four targets. Over four games, Allen has 19 catches for 217 yards and one TD on 32 targets. He averages eight targets per game. WRs have 57 catches for 858 yards and three TDs on 97 targets against the Dolphins. Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving against Miami (Jordy Nelson – 6/173/1 and A.J. Green – 6/112). CB Xavien Howard can limit a WR completion rate, but he does make mistakes which can lead to big plays and possibly TDs. More of an against the grain play.
Keelan Cole (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,700): After five games, Cole is the 44th ranked WR in PPR leagues with a good portion of his success coming in Week 2 (7/116/1). Over his last three games, Keelan has 11 catches for 125 yards on 22 targets while continuing to receive WR1 snaps for the Jaguars. Cole should draw the Cowboys top CB Byron Jones on many plays, which looks unfavorable. On the positive side, Dallas tends to keep their CBs on the same side of the field which will allow Jacksonville to move Keelan into better situations in the passing game. I don’t expect a big game, so he’s fade for me in the daily games.
Micheal Crabtree (DK – $4,700/FD – $6,200): Crabtree has fewer than 70 yards receiving in each game with his only TD coming in Week 1. Over his last four games, the Ravens have looked his way forty times while delivering a low catch rate (52.5). CB Adoree Jackson is off to a nice start this year, which makes Michael tough to trust again this week.
Larry Fitzgerald (DK – $4,500/FD – $6,200): Fantasy fans put an APB out of Fitzgerald after last week’s game. Larry has three catches or fewer in each of his last four games while failing to gain over 35 yards in each content over this span. He continues to be limited with a hamstring issue in practice. WRs have 62 catches for 867 yards and six TDs on 93 targets against the Vikings. The best case for him is that Arizona should be chasing on the scoreboard and his salary falls into peasantville.
BAD MATCHUP (AVOID)
Kenny Stills ($4,700/FD – $5,800): Stills has failed to live up to his 2018 expectations after five games. He’s the clear WR1 for Miami, but Kenny averages only 4.8 targets per game. His best game came in Week 1 (4/106/2) while delivering only one other steady game (3/61/1). WRs have 60 catches for 775 yards and four TDs on 83 targets against the Bears with Green Bay (19/299/3) and Tampa (19/229) having the most success. If the Dolphins can handle Chicago’s pass rush (16 sacks), Ryan Tannehill should have a chance to hit on a long scoring play. Based on matchup and opportunity, Stills looks like a player to avoid in the daily games.
Taylor Gabriel (DK – $4,300/FD – 45,600): After a slow start to the year (5/25, 4/30, and 6/34) on 22 combined targets, Gabriel broke free for an impact game against the Bucs (7/104/2 on seven targets). Taylor has had WR2 snaps in each game for Chicago, but he should be passed on the depth chart later in the year by Anthony Miller. CB Minkah Fitzpatrick is a top talent, which will push Gabriel back to his early-season levels.
Christian Kirk (DK – $4,200/FD – $5,400): Kirk hit on a 75-yard TD last week setting up his best game (3/85/1) on the year. Even with his success, Christian only had four targets. Over his last three games, Kirk has 14 catches for 203 yards and one TD on 17 targets. His matchup with CB Trae Waynes looks unfavorable with plenty of questions with his chances.
PLAYING TIME / INJURY RISK
Jamison Crowder (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,700): Washington suffered multiple injuries on offense last week, which included Crowder. Jamison has an ankle injury that cost him practice time already this week. If Paul Richardson and Chris Thompson didn’t play and Crowder showed improvement, he should naturally receive more chances. Over four games, Jamison has 13 catches for 134 yards and one TD on 20 targets. A lot of moving parts here with his injury being the biggest factor.
David Moore (DK – $3,600/FD – $4,700): Moore caught two of his three passes for TDs last week while gaining 38 yards. He’s been on the field for 65 and 52 percent of the Seahawks’ plays over the last two weeks. Gaining playing time, but his role can’t be trusted while needing Seattle to open up the passing game.
NEUTRAL (ANY FORMAT)
Antonio Brown (DK – $8,700/FD – $9,100): Brown had his best game of the year in Week 5 (6/101/2 on 13 targets) to push him to 7th in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Antonio now has five TDs while being on pace to set a career high in targets (211), but his catch rate (53.0) is well below his career pace along with his yards per catch (10.7). Last year he had eight catches for 101 yards and one TD on 16 targets in his game in Cinci. WRs have 73 catches for 882 yards and five TDs on 116 targets with the Falcons’ WRs having the most success (21/344/2). Plenty of talent with scoring ability and opportunity, which make him attractive if this game is played at high scoring pace.
Adam Thielen (DK – $8,500/FD – $8,600): Thielen has over 100 yards receiving in each game this year. He averages 13.2 targets per game while scoring three TDs in the last four games. Adam delivers about 9.2 catches for 118 yards and 0.60 TDs per game in 2018. WRs have 72 catches for 785 yards and one TD on 110 targets against Arizona. The Cardinals struggled vs. the Rams’ WRs (19/303) while playing four teams below league average talent at WR (WAS, CHI, SEA, and SF). CB Budda Baker will give up a high catch rate as he tries to keep WRs in front of him. Thielen will get his catches, but he also needs a battle on the scoreboard. Nice floor, but his higher salary would push me elsewhere at WR.
Mike Evans (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,000): Evans has three strong games (7/147/1, 10/83/1, and 6/137/1). He’s on pace for 112 catches with 1,702 yards and 12 TDs on 156 targets. His catch rate (74.3) is well above any other season in the NFL. Last year Mike had 11 catches for 157 yards and one TD on 20 targets in two games against the Falcons. The previous year, Evans had one impact game (11/150/2) against Atlanta with success in his other game (5/99/1). WRs have 69 catches for 821 yards and ten TDs on 102 targets against the Falcons. Tampa has depth in their receiving options, but they will need to pass to win this game. I expect him to be a popular part of a Tampa/Atlanta game stack.
DeAndre Hopkins (DK – $7,700/FD – $9,000): Hopkins remains on a path (125/1901/6) to beat last season’ success in catches (96) and yards (1378) while needing to find his rhythm in TDs. DeAndre has double-digit targets in every game with back-to-back strong games (10/169/1 and 9/151). Buffalo hasn’t allowed over 200 yards to any team at WR while them to on TD catch over the last four games. Overall, WRs have 71 catches for 756 yards and four TDs on 109 targets vs. Buffalo. Adam Thielen is the only WR over 100 yards receiving against the Bills (14/105). CB Tre’Davious White has talent, but he won’t cover Hopkins on all plays while battling an ankle issue. If Deshaun Watson has time to throw, Andre will hit on some big plays and possible multiple TDs.
Keenan Allen (DK – $7,500/FD – $8,100): Allen is the 25th ranked WR in PPR leagues after five games, which is well behind his expected value. His only TD came in Week 1 at home. On the year, Keenan averages nine targets per game (about ten in 2017) with one playable game (8/108/1). Last week he caught eight of his nine targets for 90 yards. WRs have 76 catches for 957 yards and five TDs on 137 targets against the Browns with three WRs having strong games (JuJu Smith-Schuster – 5/119, Michael Thomas – 12/89/2, and Amari Cooper – 8/128/1). CB T.J. Carries has experience vs. Allen in his days with Oakland, but he ranks as a below the league average in coverage. Keenan tends to be a better player at home, but his matchup this week does offer upside.
JuJu Amith-Schuster (DK – $7,300/FD – $7,800): After a fast start to the year over the first three games (5/119, 13/121/1, and 9/116), Smith-Schuster posted two weaker games (4/60 and 4/34/1) at home. Against the Falcons, he caught all four of his targets while gaining only 8.5 yards per catch. In his two games vs. the Bengals last year, JuJu caught six passes for 56 yards and one TD on eight targets. Smith-Schuster will be the Bengals’ tougher test vs. a top slot WR in 2018. I like his salary when adding in his ability to score and reaching a high level of targets. In the mix for me at this level.
Brandin Cook (DK – $7,000/FD – $7,800): Cooks has been a great fit in the Rams’ offense after four games, but he was shutout last week after suffering a concussion after 28 plays. He’s caught seven passes in three games with an exceptional catch rate (84) on the year. His best two games came in Week 2 (7/159) and Week 4 (7/116/1). Cooks is trending toward playing this week. WRs have 63 catches for 791 yards and six TDs on targets against the Broncos. Last week Robby Anderson beat Denver for a couple of long TDs leading to a nice game (3/123/2). If CB Adam Jones doesn’t play, Brandin has a chance to hit on a long play.
Robert Woods (DK – $6,900/FD – $7,300): Woods played well in each of his last three games (10/104/2, 5/101/1, and 5/92). He averages 8.2 targets per game with over 30 percent of his catches gaining over 20 yards. I expect both Cooper Kupp and Brandin Cooks to play, so Robert won’t be rewarded with a bump in chances. CB Bradley Roby didn’t play well in Week 5 putting him on a path a step back in performance in 2018. May surprise while needing more info to determine his opportunity.
Will Fuller (DK – $6,800/FD – $7,300): Fuller was limited last week with a hamstring issue, but he was able to be on the field for 77 of 80 plays run by the Texans. Even with plenty of playing time, Will only caught two of his three targets for 15 yards. His best two games came in Week 2 (8/113/1) and Week 3 (5/101/1). Houston will give him limited practice this week again to keep him on track to play on Sunday. The emergence of Keke Coutee does cut into his chances. CB Tre’Davious White has the speed matchup him in the deep passing game, which will limit his big play ability. Priced high while playing in a game vs. a team that should struggle to score points. Too many negatives to predict an impact game.
Emmanuel Sanders (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,700): Sanders had a slight rebound in production in Week 5 (9/72 on 14 targets) helped by game score, but he failed to score a TD for the fourth straight game. His best game of the year came in Week 1 (10/135/1). WRs have eight TDs against the Rams over the last three games with the Vikings having the most success (25/338/3). Two WRs have over 100 yards receiving against LA (Adam Thielen – 8/135/1 and Stefon Diggs – 11/123). CB Nickell Robey-Coleman should be a neutral matchup. A chaser game points to more upside.
Jarvis Landry (DK – $6,700/FD – $6,900): Over the last two games with Baker Mayfield starting, Landry has nine catches for 103 yards and one TD on 20 targets. Jarvis averages 11.2 targets per game with two games with over 100 yards receiving (7/106 and 8/103) with both coming at home. WRs have 62 catches for 890 yards and nine TDs on 87 targets with their two failed games (12/206/3 and 21/265/3) coming against two elite offenses (KC and LAR). His matchup vs. CB Desmond King should be favorable, and the Browns need him to play well to win this game. Call me intrigued.
Calvin Ridley (DK – $6,300/FD – $6,700): In his two road starts, Ridley has four catches for 38 yards on seven targets while shining brightly at home (15/264/6 on 19 targets). On the year, Calvin has been on the field for 60 percent of the plays run by the Falcons as the WR3. Tampa has risk in all areas of their secondary creating upside and big-play ability for Ridley in this matchup. His salary is high for his opportunity (5.2 targets per game), but its tough to deny his impact value at home.
DeSean Jackson (DK – $5,900/FD – $6,500): Jackson has over 100 yards receiving in three of his four games (5/146/2, 4/129/1, and 5/112), but he averages only 5.5 targets per game while being in the field for 52 percent of the plays run by the Falcons. CB Robert Alford will allow big plays, which plays into his hands. A favorable matchup with boom or bust value.
Demaryius Thomas (DK – $5,800/FD – $6,500): After a nice game (5/105/1) highlighted by a late 42-yard TD, Thomas pushed his way to 32nd in WR scoring in PPR leagues. Over five games, Demaryius has 25 catches for 273 yards and two TDs on 39 targets. With Aqib Talib out of the lineup, the Rams have struggled to keep outside WRs out of the end zone in their last three games. Thomas isn’t where he needs to be in production, but Denver will need to throw giving him a chance at a follow through game.
Quincy Enunwa (DK – $5,600/FD – $5,800): After nice start over four games (21/278/1 on 37 targets), Quincy struggled to get open against CB Chris Harris leading to no catches on five targets. He still led the Jets’ WRs in snaps last week (77 percent). WRs have 69 catches for 791 yards and six TDs on 94 targets against Indy with most of the damage coming in Week 4 vs. the Texans’ WRs (26/340/2 on 33 targets). I expect a rebound at home with a chance a TD and a playable game.
John Brown (DK – $5,500/FD – $6,300): Last week Brown had his best opportunity of the year (14 targets), but he caught only four of his chance for 58 yards. After five games, John is the 23rd highest scoring WR in PPR leagues (19/396/3). On the year, Brown has a low catch rate (43.2) while averaging just under nine targets per game. The Titans struggled with WRs in three games (16/201/2, 17/268/2, and 15/197/2) with CB Malcolm Butler being the weak link in deep coverage. Possible long TD, but his targets won’t be anywhere near last week.
Doug Baldwin (DK – $5,300/FD – $6,200): In his two games back in the starting lineup, Baldwin only has six catches for 42 yards on eight targets. Seattle had him on the field for 88 percent of their plays in Week 5. WRs have 61 catches for 962 yards and six TDs on 105 targets against Oakland. No WR has over 100 yards receiving vs. the Raiders in 2018. Seattle has turned into a running team over the last three weeks, which limits the passing attempt by the Seahawks. I need to see more before taking him for a ride in the daily games.
Amari Cooper (DK – $5,200/FD – $6,400): Cooper gave Fantasy owners excitement with a rebound season expected on draft day, but his path over five games has been cruel. After a poor Week 1 (1/9), I’m sure Amari was benched in many leagues in Week 2 (10/116). After a second failed ride in Week 3 (2/17), Cooper was again pushed to the bench in Week 4 (8/128/1). The up and down trend continued again last week (1/10). On the year, Cooper is the 43rd ranked WR in PPR leagues while being expected to be a WR2. He averages only six targets per game. WRs have 69 catches for 800 yards and six TDs against Seattle on 105 targets. Based on his trend, Amari should be back in play this week while being extremely tough to trust.
Tyler Lockett (DK – $5,100/FD – $6,200): Lockett remains the top WR in Seattle after five games, but he’s only averaging 5.6 targets per game. Tyler has a TD in four of his five games while gaining over 20 yards per catch on five plays with three of those plays gaining over 40 yards. Lockett will have the edge over CB Daryl Worley, but he needs the Seahawks to throw the ball to post a 20+ Fantasy point game.
Dede Westbrook (DK – $5,000/FD – $5,700): Westbrook is far from a plugin and play in the season-long games, but he does have two strong weeks (4/82/1 and 9/130). He has six targets or fewer four games and a great opportunity in Week 4 (13 targets). The Jaguars will use many three WR sets giving him a chance to be in the field 70 percent of the time. Two WRs have big games against the Cowboys (Golden Tate – 8/132/2 and DeAndre Hopkins – 9/151). Big play WR who tends to lack opportunity.
Devin Funchess (DK – $4,900/FD – $6,300): Funchess tends to fall into the boring category as he struggles to get elite targets (only seven per game) with mid-tier scoring ability. After four games, Devin has 18 catches for 238 yards and one TD. WRs have 47 catches for 634 yards and five TDs on 68 targets against the Redskins while failing to defend the deep ball last week vs. the Saints (14/273/2). CB Quinton Dunbar will give up catches and TDs giving Funchess at least mid-teen value.
Jordy Nelson (DK – $4,90/FD – $6,400): Nelson has a TD in three straight games. After his impact game (6/173/1) in Miami, Jordy has two mid-level games (5/48/1 and 4/43/1). He’s averaging only 5.6 targets per game while showing more big-play ability (four catches over 20 yards). CB Tre Flowers couldn’t handle Emmanuel Sanders in Week 1, which may be a sign of a better game for Nelson in this matchup. His TD ability is a plus, but Oakland needs to give him a bump in targets to become more viable in the daily games.
Mohamed Sanu (DK – $4,800/FD – $5,800): Sanu played well in his last two games (6/111 and 4/73/1). Over his last three starts, he had 23 targets with a pair of TDs. Mohamed is listed in the injury report with a hip issue while trending toward playing on Sunday. CB M.J. Stewart will allow a high catch rate and TDs, which gives Sanu a pulse in this game.
Ryan Grant (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,500): With T.Y. Hilton expected to be out this week. Grant will have his third straight game with a bump in targets. In his last two games, Ryan caught 11 of his 16 chances for 122 yards. Over five games, Grant has 24 catches for 246 yards and one TD on 31 targets. WRs have 82 catches for 1,026 yards and five TDs on 134 targets against the Jets with three teams having success (DET – 19/253/1, JAC – 17/260/1, and DEN – 20/245/2). Luck will get plenty of chances to throw giving Ryan sneaky upside in this matchup.
Keke Coutee (DK – $4,600/FD – $5,700): Over the last two games, Coutee has 17 catches for 160 yards and one TD on 22 targets. He’s gaining only 9.4 yards per catches the Texans continue to use him as a dump-off option for Deshaun Watson. With Will Fuller back in the starting lineup, Keke was on the field for 71 percent of the plays run by Houston. Game score won’t be his friend plus Will Fuller should regain some of his targets.
Chester Rogers (DK – $4,500/FD – $5,700): Over the last two games, Rogers has 16 catches for 151 yards on 22 targets. He gaining only 8.3 yards per catch this year with only two of his 24 catches gaining 20+ yards. CB Buster Skrine hasn’t played well this year, but Chester may not have the explosiveness to make the Jets’ defense pay. His price point is fair while having opportunity on his side.
Donte Moncrief (DK – $4,400/FD – $5,700): Moncrief played great in Week 4 (5/109/1) while having a career high in targets (15) last week. Unfortunately, Donte caught only six of his chances for 76 yards. He averages 7.4 targets per game with a short catch rate (48.6). CB Chidobe Awuzie hasn’t played, which gives the second WR the Jaguars’ offense a chance to have a playable game.
Mike Williams (DK – $4,300/FD – $6,100): Over the last two games, Williams has four combined catches for 60 yards on seven targets. The Chargers have him on the field for about two-thirds of their plays. On the year, Mike averages only 5.4 targets per game with strength in his catch rate (68.2). The second CB on the Browns has downside risk, which is a positive for Williams if he avoids CB Denzel Ward in coverage. Explosive type filler if given more chances.
