— update … per my rant, you can get Sale and Cole on FD. It looks like many are fading Sale for Cole, so I dont hate the idea of using Sale and hoping he is angry — FD only…
And just like that we are back to different sized main slates. The only difference is that once again DK has the Coors Field game on it’s Sunday slate. It’s a HUGE Sunday slate with 11 games on FanDuel and the 12th on DK, so let’s dive in.
Begin FanDuel Rant
There’s two “stud” pitchers going today. And by “stud” I mean guys who are priced really high — has nothing to do with actual talent or matchup or potential … Sale and Cole …
As many of you know, I am not a “stack/stack” guy. Meaning, I am not a fan of going in and just trying to stack two teams together because I feel that I can do better optimally picking the players who are the right plays at each position and avoiding being in the tournaments with 10K+ entries in them I don’t need to worry about having some crazy lineup stack that shoots to the moon. Pairing contest selection + picking good plays for that day is how I approach DFS, but there are times I have to be humble and admit when a spade is a spade…..
The skill in picking a pitcher to me is finding the player who is going to return the best ROI for his price. It’s literally the ONE position in Fantasy Baseball that I would use the value term to evaluate how the player did. Outside of the exceptions like Trout or Arenado, most hitters are simply binary results for me. 0 or 1. Did you do well or not? With hitters I don’t care too much what the price is as there’s always players in that mid/low range who will perform and thus when I say value doesn’t matter in baseball for hitters it’s because the $ difference between a 3800 player and a 2700 player is so minimal compared to the overall cap that it really doesn’t matter that much. However, a 6700 pitcher who gets a 40 should be far superior to a 11k pitcher who gets a 45. Half the price and nearly the same result. You should take the 6700 pitcher every time if this is a true skill game right???
Not on FanDuel.
Why? Because on FanDuel we can simply take a potentially “worst case scenario” outing from that 11k pitcher and still get hitters who are in PREMIUM spots. And by hitters I mean actually GOOD hitters.
How about Eddie Rosario and the Twins against Bartolo Colon in 80+ degree temps? Yes, you can do that.
How about Jose Abreu and the White Sox against Paul Blackburn (sure, the White Sox aren’t exactly leading the league in hitting, but still) … Yes, you can do that.
Take a look …. The Minnesota Twins — who are pretty good at home and pretty good in day games … face off against Bartolo Colon and the Rangers…..
- Joe Mauer – 2600
- Eddie Rosario – 3300 … This is a joke. Dude is 5200 on DK.
- Eduardo Escobar – 3300 … Really? I think he leads the league in doubles
- Logan Morrison – 2300 … Just your average clean up hitter at 2300
- Brian Dozier – 3600 … So the worst guy on the team is the most expensive. Gotcha
- Max Kepler – 2300
- Ariana Grande – 2100
- etc…
So you want to play FanDuel today? OK. Here’s a lineup that you can start with if you are doing MME
So what FanDuel is doing here is they are removing any skill from selecting pitcher today. This is a huge reason why we say there isn’t much skill in MME. I can go in and I can say, you know what, I am going to definitely get 40 points from Sale or Cole today, one of them will hit 40. And the Twins are my favorite stack of the day because for those prices they’re going to likely pay off against Colon and the Rangers in ideal hitting conditions. So let me mix and match as many lineups as I can with these combinations and roll from there.
You HAVE to do better FanDuel if you want to be considered a skill site. There’s no reason for the Twins or the White Sox to be this low nor for Sale and Cole to be that low either to be honest.
If you wanna play on FanDuel today, you gotta decide first are you avoiding a Sale/Cole + WhiteSox/Twins play or not….
/end mini rant.
WEATHER
The worst game happens to be the Coors Field game. Caleb Smith versus German Marquez. So a quick glance and this game is a no for me on DK today, plenty of other good options and we can fade a sub 70 degree Coors game with a little rain in it. Game should play though. See full notes at the bottom in the “Afternoon Games” section as this is the only write-up for today.
PITCHING
Here’s my analysis — mostly focused on DK because of the fucktardism on FanDuel….
- Jose Berrios … The best on this slate IMO. Give me Berrios over Sale and Cole given the price savings.
- Domingo German … It’s Domingo on a Sunday version 2018 (sadly Domingo Santana was demoted to AAA yesterday, hopefully the Brewers will finally trade him). His DK price is a little tempting to fade if he appears to be chalky — which I do think is a good chance there — but this should be another low scoring game here and the Yankees might actually wake up and win it despite being a bunch of overrated Mark Reynolds’.
SNEAKY / SP2
- Trevor Williams … Don’t mind if I do slide in here and quietly use a Pirates pitcher vs the Diamondbacks after I shat on everyone else for doing the same. Pay no attention here. Just me using T-Will the thrill at home on a Sunday.
- Carlos Rodon … Rodon throwing 97, 100 and 98 pitches in his three starts this year is enough confidence for me to roll him out against a team who isn’t hitting lefties like they were earlier in the season mostly because Matt Chapman is out of the lineup and Jed Lowrie has come back down to earth. Throw in that I never use K.Davis on the road versus lefties because I am a weirdo and I’m going right back to picking on Oakland, which was doing alright until dipshit Dylan Covey decided he had a sore cramp or some shit after throwing a 1st pitch strike to Jonathan Lucroy, who then walked off the reliever and then had the ER charged to Covey. Things you forget about baseball rules…. Anyways. I expect the White Sox to finally win a game today and Rodon to be the reason why.
- Jhoulys Chacin … He’s better at home and Milwaukee should feast on that fraud Luke Weaver.
FADES
- Gerrit Cole … Sunday Rules.
- Chris Sale … Hey E-Rod BvP crowd, how did that work out for you last night? Not so well eh? This is the hottest team in baseball right now (Seattle) and throw in that I normally don’t pay up for pitching on Sunday’s and it’s a clear fade for me. This game does feel low scoring however. Sale likely comes close to hitting value on FD since he is only 11.3k and he should be closer to 11.8k every time he pitches, but none the less, no love for me today. Not unless the Mariners rest a bunch of folks.
- Rich Hill … I don’t care if the Mets cannot hit lefties. It’s Rich fucking can’t stay on the Hill. I have morals.
OFFENSES
Minnesota … Beating this horse to death but they’re in a great spot today and they’re criminally underpriced on FanDuel. Lets take the $ out of it. Eddie Rosario on a Sunday at home. Check. Joe Mauer against Colon? Yeah, I think Mauer has a big day here.
Atlanta … I will fully admit, they are not as explosive offensively as I would like them to be and I really like both sides here in a 90 degree game in a hitters ballpark with two gascans on the mound. Hess has been alright but it feels like he is due to pull a hammy or something and we get loads of loads of a shitty Orioles bullpen. Freeman would be my pick for that goofy HR contest on FD today.
SNEAKY
Brewers … I think they’re crawling under the radar today with the pricing issues on FD. Waiting to see who is in today but Shaw and Jesus on a Sunday stick out the most.
Baltimore … It’s Brandon McCarthy.
Mariners … Hottest team in baseball — leverage play against Sale.
POSITIONAL BREAKDOWN
CATCHER
- Tyler Flowers
- Mike Zunino
- Salvador Perez … He’s back
- Elias Diaz
FIRST BASE
- Joe Mauer
- Prince Frederick Freeman
- Jesus Aguilar
- Wilmer Flores
SECOND BASE
- Ozzie Albies & Yoan Moncada … These are two of the best young second basemen in the game and two of my favorite young players. Albies has been more consistent lately, but he is also $1500 more than Moncada. I mean…. Luis Valbuena was one of the worst hitters this season but he has been 40% owned and hit home runs both times in the past 4 days. Soooo, you do the math on which one homers today — yeah, it’s Moncada
- Jason Kipnis
- Josh Harrison
THIRD BASE
- Eduardo Escobar
- Danny Santana … The key to the Braves kingdom today.
- Travis Shaw
SHORTSTOP
- Manny Machado
- Francisco Lindor … Might be 1% owned on a Sunday at home vs Matt Boyd on the road. Tempting.
- Punt from your favorite stack/team.
OUTFIELD – Tier 1
- Eddie Rosario … Roses are Red, Violets are Blue, You play Eddie Rosario at home on a Sunday, it’s what you do.
- JD Martinez
- Nick Markakis
- Christian Yelich
OUTFIELD – Tier 2
- Starlin Marte
- Matt Kemp
- Scott Schebler
- Ender Inciarte
OUTFIELD – Tier 3 Value
- All of FanDuel
- Ryan Braun
- Ian Happ
- Leonys Martin … throwing LiC a bone here
- Corey Dickerson
THE DONGERS CLUB
- Danny Santana – 3B – Chairman
- Eddie Rosario – OF
- Tyler Flowers – C
- Manny Machado – SS
- Wilmer Flores – 1B
- Yoan Moncada – 2B
- Ian Happ – OF
- JD Martinez – OF
- BONUS ……………. Travis Shaw – 3B
AFTERNOON GAMES
Miami @ Colorado … Looks like a good matchup for Trevor Story here otherwise it’s a mostly fade game for me. Justin Bour will be back in the lineup and I suspect he doesn’t leave Coors without hitting one out of the ballpark. Don’t be afraid to use German Marquez aside from Bour however.
San Diego @ San Francisco … Two young pitchers on the mound here and I do not think this is a game where we see them dominate. This is my favorite of the three to get offense from and it’s mostly on the Giants side with McCutchen, Posey and Belt. Padres sneaky as well.
Toronto @ Anaheim … Toronto the #1 stack on the afternoon slate — which is saying something considering it’s a bad ballpark, but Felix Pena doesnt impress me here and Teoscar Hernandez/Curtis Granderson/Justin Smoak should feast.
