DOCUMENTED Feats
- Nailed three out of last four Kentucky Derbys
- Six lifetime KY Derby Trifectas
Highlighted Wins in 2018 include scores in Fountain of Youth Stakes, Tampa Bay Derby, Florida Derby,
- Longshot play of Promises Fulfilled at 18/1 in the Fountain of Youth Stakes with a 115 -1 Exacta
- Longshot play 19/1 Quip in the Tampa Bay Derby with a 151-1 Exacta and a 455-1 Trifecta
- Longshot play Hofburg in the Florida Derby coming in second behind Audible with a 26-1 Exacta & 155-1 Trifecta
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What: $2,000,000 G1 Kentucky Derby
Where: Churchill Downs, KY
Race: Race 12 Post Time: 6:50 EST/ 3:50 PST
When: Saturday, May 5, 2018
Will the Apollo Curse finally be broken? Kentucky Derby favorite & undefeated #7 Justify & third choice #16 Magnum Moon will be looking to become the first horse to win the Run for the Roses without racing as 2-year olds since Apollo in 1882. Curses are meant to be broken, right? Just ask #1 overall NCAA Seed Virginia Cavaliers who lost to a #16 seed! Hmmm…
The most desired post position based on history is the #5 as ten champions have broken from there out of that gate and found the winners circle. At morning line odds of 8-1 odds, Todd Pletcher’s Audible has an opportunity to build upon that resume.
The dreaded rail, which has not produced a Derby winner since 1986, was drawn by Firenze Fire and his accompanied odds of 50-1.
The horse that is the most difficult to handicap this year is bestowed upon Aidan O’Brien’s Mendelssohn who drew post position 14 and is currently listed as a second choice in the morning line. Why is he so difficult to analyze you ask? Well, that is because he ships in fresh off crushing the UAE Derby field in Dubai by–wait for it—18.5 lengths! Amazing right? Well not so fast. All previous UAE Derby winners who have tried the Kentucky Derby have finished no better than 5th. Then you can add in that no horse whose previous race was overseas has won the Derby since 1971.
We can completely toss #17 Solomini (30/1) as that is one of the most dreaded post positions draws as no horse has ever won the Derby out of that gate, and only three have ever even finished in the money.
Single digit odds horse I am completely tossing off my tickets is #11 Bolt d’Oro (8/1). I think his odds will go up by post time as he has not found the winners circle in his last three races—outside of a questionable elevation to first following bumping down the stretch in the San Felipe.
Early Analysis
Top Contenders per Morning Line
- #7 Justify (3/1) #14 Mendelssohn (5/1) #16 Magnum Moon (6/1) #5 Audible (8/1)
Expected Vegas ‘Wise-Guy’ Horse
- #9 Hofburg (20/1)
Longshot That Could Crash Top Spot
- #10 My Boy Jack (30/1)
Highlighted Horse Most Likely to Take Money & Miss The Board
- #11 Bolt d’Oro (8/1)
Horse That Could Fly Under the Radar
- #18 Vino Rosso (12/1)
Most Perplexing Horse To Handicap
- #14 Mendelssohn (5/1)
Bomb Longshots Who Could Hit The Exotics
- #4 Flameaway (30/1) #12 Enticed (30/1)
