Scouting The NBA – 11/28/17

Plays of the Day

Value: Tyus Jones compiled 17 points, 13 assists and an impressive 11 steals over his last two appearances with Jeff Teague (Achilles) out and he’d become a virtual must play if starting for Minnesota.

Fade: LeBron James and Dwyane Wade certainly need to rest their aging bodies and they would like to have that luxury on the second half of a B2B set. With Miami coming to town, they may be motivated to play bigger minutes, but that’s not guaranteed.

 

Point Guards

Eric Bledsoe – (6,600 DK/7,000 FD)

Bledsoe has been able to meet or exceed value in three straight games while seemingly growing much more comfortable on his new team. He stands to keep that streak going tonight against a Kings team that ranks 26th in defensive rating and 26th in opponents 2PT FG shooting (.521%). With no tangible rim protector, the Kings have been burned in the paint and EB is shooting an efficient 24-of-52 (46%) from the floor while pouring in 62 points in his last three appearances.

 

Tyus Jones – (4,300 DK/5,200 FD)

It’s a toss up between Jones and Mike James of Phoenix since both PGs could serve as great values depending on who is out tonight. Jeff Teague (Achilles) seems much more likely to miss a third straight game however, then Devin Booker (knee), who said he’s hopeful to suit up for Phoenix. With Teague out, Jones compiled 17 points, 13 assists and an impressive 11 steals over his last two appearances and he’d become a virtual must play if starting for Minnesota.

 

Potential Value

Mike James – (4,600 DK/4,400 FD)

James is still worth a look regardless of Booker’s status in a plus matchup against the young Bulls, especially at that dirt cheap price tag on FanDuel.

 

Longshot

Tim Frazier – (4,100 DK/4,900 FD)

Frazier doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he does have a decent floor while John Wall (knee) remains sidelined.

 


Shooting Guards

Bradley Beal – (7,900 DK/8,300 FD)

With John Wall (knee) out over the next couple of weeks, Beal can become a staple for lineups in any format. He sees the biggest increase (6.3%) in usage rate to dwarf his teammates with a 37.2 percent usage rate when Wall is off the court this season. Beal launched 24 FG attempts in a close loss to Portland and draws a much better matchup tonight against a Wolves team that’s ranked 28th in defensive rating and dead last in opponents FG shooting (.487%) this year.

 

Kelly Oubre Jr. – (4,300 DK/4,300 FD)

Oubre Jr. could be a sneaky beneficiary of Wall’s absence and perhaps a better plug and play than Tim Frazier given his superior upside. The athletic young lefty sees a 5.1 percent rise in usage rate and averages 0.47 points per minute with Wall off the floor this season and he’s been productive lately with 40 points and 14 boards over his last three appearances. Minnesota’s been a fantasy-friendly matchup for wing players this year and Oubre remains quite cheap.

 

Potential Value

Tyler Johnson – (4,200 DK/5,500 FD)

Johnson has flashed an ability to exceed value at times and he faces a horrific Cavs defense tonight.

 

Longshot

Khris Middleton – (6,600 DK/6,800 FD)

Middleton mixes in big scoring games once in a while and he could serve as a great pivot off Bledsoe in GPP formats against a weak Kings defense.

 

Small Forwards

Otto Porter – (6,400 DK/7,300 FD)

Porter went for 24 points and 10 boards against an athletic Portland team on Saturday and he seems like another candidate to benefit with Wall out. He averages 1.06 FPs per minute with a 4.7 percent usage rate when Wall is off the floor this season and leads the team in usage rate (26.7%) when both Wall and Beal sit. He could provide sneaky upside if the Wolves use Jimmy Butler to try and contain Beal tonight, as Minnesota gives up the ninth-most PPG (21.65) to opposing SFs partially because Andrew Wiggins is a far worse defender than Butler. 

 

Denzel Valentine – (5,600 DK/6,200 FD)

Valentine played a team-high 40 minutes while providing excellent play on both ends of the floor on his way to 14 points, 13 rebounds and 7 assists on Sunday. Averaging 11.6 PPG since moving into the SLU, Valentine appears much more comfortable in his second NBA campaign and he’s dictating things offensively with an 18.3 percent assist rate. Up next is a Suns team that just paced the Cavs for the designation of worst defensive rating and Phoenix also gives up the most RPG (47.4) while playing at the third-fastest pace in the NBA this season.

 

Potential Value

Joe Ingles – (4,800 DK/5,800 FD)

Ingles has a solid floor in what should be a fast-paced matchup with the Nuggets.

 

Longshot

T.J. Warren– (7,300 DK/7,400 FD)

Keep an eye on Warren as a potential GPP option should Devin Booker sit for Phoenix.


Power Forwards

Lauri Markkanen – (6,700 DK/6,900 FD)

He’s had a couple of quiet games recently, but Markkanen has much more upside than other PFs in this price range such as Derrick Favors. The Bulls young stud is averaging 17 points and 9.8 rebounds per 36 minutes with a hefty 21.4 percent usage rate and he faces the worst rated defense in the NBA tonight. To make matters worse for the Suns, all of their big men are far too slow to close out on Markkanen and cut off his drive, which is how he’s been able to post an offensive rating of 102 and average 14.4 PPG as a rookie.

 

Kenneth Faried – (3,900 DK/4,600 FD)

Faried moved into the Nuggets SLU on Friday with Paul Millsap (wrist) out indefinitely, and even though he was a DNP-CD the game before, he’s likely to see closer to 30 minutes in a matchup against the sizable Jazz frontcourt. The Manimal is still grabbing 10 boards per 36 minutes and Utah gives up the eighth-most RPG (12.7) to opposing PFs this season.

 

Potential Value

Bobby Portis – (5,200 DK/4,800 FD)

Portis is a consistent option in this price range, but hasn’t flashed much upside lately.

 

Longshot

James Johnson – (5,900 DK/5,800 FD)

Johnson will likely see extended run tonight in an effort to guard LeBron James.

 

Centers

 

Karl-Anthony Towns – (9,100 DK/9,500 FD)

Towns dropped a big double double against Phoenix on Sunday (when most DFSers are concentrating on football) and has played better in three straight games since getting dominated by Dwight Howard last Monday. Marcin Gortat could continue to struggle to find his offense with John Wall out and that might take away from his defensive effort against KAT, who torched him rather easily with 57 points on 55.8 percent FG shooting over two meetings with Washington last year.

 

John Henson – (4,700 DK/5,500 FD)

John Henson is a far safer option in this price range than one of the Suns three centers, who have low ceilings and even lower floors while they’re all active. Henson draws a great matchup against a Kings team that gives up the third-most FPPG (59.92) and most RPG (19.58) to opposing centers this year and he hardly missed a beat while scoring 11 points with 8 rebounds on Saturday after missing last Wednesday’s tilt with an eye injury.

 

Potential Value

Alex Len – (4,500 DK/4,700 FD)

Len is part of a trio of centers for the Suns, but seems to be as consistent as any of the three.

 

Longshot

Hassan Whiteside – (8,500 DK/8,400 FD)

Whiteside towers over Kevin Love and could produce a big double double against a Cavs team that’s on the second half of a B2B set.