Betting Line: Vikings – 6

Over/Under: 45.5

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers waltz into Minnesota with a sharp decline in quarterback play after the retirement of Tom Brady. Baker Mayfield has a 31-38 record while gaining only 6.8 yards per pass attempt in his career. Last year, Tampa threw the ball 751 times but allowed only 22 sacks. Brady’s ability to get rid of the ball quickly was the most significant factor, not the offensive line. The Bucs will throw the ball a lot less in 2023, with a spike in sacks and bad passing plays. Mike Evans hopes to extend his streak of at least 1,000 receiving yards to 10 seasons. Tampa hopes Rachaad White can make more explosive plays in his second year with the Bucs. Chirs Godwin capitalized on his time with Brady, leading to 202 catches for 2,126 yards and eight touchdowns over the past two years.

Minnesota had the best wide receiver (Justin Jefferson) in the land, based on fantasy ADPs all summer. The Vikings want to attack via the pass, and they added another dynamic wideout (Jordan Addison) in this draft class. The running back position is in transition, but Minnesota hopes Alexander Mattison can carry the RB1 load. T.J. Hockenson played the best ball of his career after arriving midseason to the Vikings. K.J. Osborn gives Kirk Cousins another dependable receiver to move the ball.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap). 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Baker Mayfield

• Over his last 18 starts. Mayfield passed for more than 235 yards in one game (11/28/2021 – 247/1). He has 18 touchdowns over this span when starting, with 18 interceptions and 57 sacks (525 pass attempts – 10.9%). Tom Brady threw the ball 1,452 times in 2021 and 2022, but he only was sacked 44 times (2.9%). The bottom line with this rant is that the Vikings could be a gold mine in Week 1 despite their poor outlook.
• The Vikings had the fifth-worst pass defense (22.02 FPPG), with nine teams passing for 300 yards (333/1, 418/2, 326/3, 330/1, 301/2, 382/2, 369/0, 330/3, and 334/1). Their defense finished with 35 sacks.
• Compared to 2022, the Vikings’ defense should be better in the secondary if Lewis Cine seizes a starting job and one of their young cornerbacks steps up to handle a starting gig. I see a below-par defensive line with three assets on the first two levels of their defense – Marcus Davenport, Danielle Hunter, and Jordan Hicks.
• As much as I expect Mayfield to fail over the long haul in 2023, Tampa will chase on the scoreboard, and he does have two proven wide receivers and a pass-catching running back.

Rachaad White

• The Bucs’ running backs had 338 catches for 1,529 yards and 11 touchdowns on 286 targets over the past two seasons. Again, their success was tied to Brady dumping the ball off and the elite number of pass attempts by Tampa Bay.
• White ranked 35th in running back scoring (142.10) in PPR leagues, gaining 3.7 yards per rush and 5.8 yards per catch. He did secure 50 of his 58 targets.
• Running backs had 90 catches for 667 yards and four touchdowns on 115 targets against Minnesota in 2022.
• Game flow should favor him in the passing game, and his salary is low enough that a touchdown added to his expected…

To finish reading this in-depth fantasy and DFS breakdown of Week 1…

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