Season Long – All Sports
2023 Lessons Learned & Bridges Burned
Year in Review: 2023 Lessons Learned & Bridges Burned Happy New Year! As we flip the calendar to 2024, now […]
Christian McCaffrey
Season Long – All Sports
Week 17 NFL Player Props
Week 17 NFL Player Props Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. […]
Week 17 NFL Player Props
Another profitable betting week is in the books here at FullTime Fantasy. After going 5-2 in Week 16, we are now 48-35 (+13.8 Units) with just two weeks left in the 2023 NFL regular season. After a midseason lull, we are once again on a roll with three consecutive weeks of profit. Our Week 17 NFL Player Props aims to keep the winning ways going.
As always, I will list my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 17’s slate of NFL matchups. All 32 teams will be in action with a pivotal matchup between the Detroit Lions and Dallas Cowboys on Saturday and no Monday night game this week. The Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings will close out the week on Sunday night at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Fantasy football owners have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 17 NFL Player Props and continue our profitable NFL season.
Patrick Mahomes OVER 20.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
After producing just 14 points against the Raiders in Week 16, Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs are going to be very motivated when they take on a Cincinnati Bengals franchise that has had their number in previous regular season matchups. And despite Kansas City’s struggles on offense last week, the one silver lining was that Mahomes was able to find a lot of running space. The signal caller registered a season-high 10 rushing attempts and tallied 53 yards in the Chiefs’ Christmas Day loss. Nine of those rushing attempts were on quarterback scrambles when Mahomes was under duress from Maxx Crosby and Malcom Kounce.
This week, the Chiefs’ atrocious offensive line will have to block Trey Hendrickson. With Isiah Pacheco likely sidelined, I’m anticipating Mahomes using his legs yet again out of necessity as the Bengals look to bring pressure. It also doesn’t hurt that the Chiefs face a Bengals defense that plays man-to-man coverage at a Top-10 rate. With the defensive backs zoning in on the receivers, there will be fewer eyes on Mahomes if he looks to take off from the pocket. The Bengals have surrendered a lot of yardage to mobile quarterbacks this season. Lamar Jackson, Deshaun Watson, Josh Allen, and Brock Purdy averaged 50+ rushing yards per game against the Bengals this season.
Mahomes ranks sixth among quarterbacks in rushing yards this season and has topped this line 10 times this season already. Given the struggles of the offensive line and Cincinnati’s defensive scheme, this looks like a solid wager. Take the Over.
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DFS
Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report Breece Hall (43.10 fantasy points) turned in a beast game in Week 16, giving him the top ranking. Christian McCaffrey (25.10) and Jahmyr Gibbs (25.00) finished second and third in running back scoring. Only […]
Week 17 DFS: Running Back Report
Breece Hall (43.10 fantasy points) turned in a beast game in Week 16, giving him the top ranking. Christian McCaffrey (25.10) and Jahmyr Gibbs (25.00) finished second and third in running back scoring. Only three other backs scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 16 weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.35)
- Raheem Mostert (17.91)
- Rashaad White (16.47)
- Travis Etienne (16.19)
- Breece Hall (15.59)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 17 DFS QB Report.
Elite Option
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,600/FD – $11,000)
The 49ers had McCaffrey on the field for all of their plays last week, leading to his eighth consecutive game with more than 100 combined yards. He has a touchdown in 13 of his 15 starts with a combined 21 scores. His two impact games (48.70 and 41.70) came against the Cardinals. McCaffrey has a floor of 20.00 fantasy points in eight other matchups. He is on pace to gain 2,190 combined yards with 24 touchdowns and 71 catches on 364 touches.
Washington fell to 29th in running back defense (26.13 FPPG) after allowing more than 28.00 fantasy points to backs in their last eight games. The Jets and Breece Hall drilled the Commanders for 242 combined yards with two touchdowns and 12 catches. Running backs have 16 touchdowns with success in the passing game (82/587/5).
McCaffrey has an excellent matchup, with a high floor in fantasy points. The 49ers should score at will in this game, but they could give their star running back some snaps off if Washington doesn’t put up a fight on the scoreboard.
Second-Tier Options
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Week 15 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 15 DFS: Running Back Report The running back position remains inconsistent from week to week in all markets. Ezekiel Elliott seized his starting opportunity to lead the NFL in scoring (27.00 fantasy points) in Week 14. Breece Hall (26.60) […]
Week 15 DFS: Running Back Report
The running back position remains inconsistent from week to week in all markets. Ezekiel Elliott seized his starting opportunity to lead the NFL in scoring (27.00 fantasy points) in Week 14. Breece Hall (26.60) took home the silver medal, followed by James Cook (25.10) and Saquon Barkley (24.10). All four players ranked outside the top 10 at running back before last week. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average after 14 weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (24.11)
- Raheem Mostert (18.34)
- Travis Etienne (17.45)
- Rachaad White (15.80)
- Alvin Kamara (15.59)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 15 DFS QB Report.
Elite Option
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,300/FD – $10,500)
Last week, McCaffrey busted a 72-yard run on the 49ers’ first play. Unfortunately, San Francisco gave him the next play off, leading to Jordan Mason sniping the touchdown on the next play. He finished with a productive day in yards (153) but only one catch and no scores. His streak of scoring at least 20.00 fantasy points ended at six games. The 49ers had him on the field for 89% of their plays. McCaffrey’s best outing came in Week 4 (20/106/3 with seven catches for 71 yards and one touchdown) against the Cardinals. After 13 games, he has 17 touchdowns.
Arizona ranks 31st in running back defense (27.93 FPPG), with two disaster showings (SF – 53.70 and LAR – 52.70 fantasy points). Backs scored 18 touchdowns, with some success catching the ball (61/382/6). Four teams rushed for more than 175 yards. Opponents average 31.4 rushes per game while gaining 4.4 yards per carry.
The scoring in the 49ers is all about the cycle of their four best players. McCaffrey has an elite opportunity in snaps and touches, and this matchup points to multiple touchdowns. He looks poised to score 30+ fantasy points while being challenging to fit into a winning lineup.
Top Tier Options
Kyren Williams, LAR (DK – $7,500/FD – $9,600)
Since returning from the injured list, Williams has been a beast in the Rams’ offense. Los Angeles had him on the field for 90%…
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Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre […]
Week 10 DFS: Running Back Report
The top-tier running backs were a major disappointment last week, partly due to the top two options (Christian McCaffrey and Travis Etienne) being on a bye. Alvin Kamara (11.00), Breece Hall (10.00), and DeAndre Swift (9.4) fell short of expectations in fantasy points. Rachaad White took advantage of his favorable matchup to post his best outing (20/73/2 and 4/46) of his young career. Only four other backs (Rhamondre Stevenson – 22.90, Josh Jacobs – 21.80, Austin Ekeler – 21.00, and Keaton Mitchell – 20.80) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs by scoring average in PPR formats after nine weeks:
- Christian McCaffrey (25.30)
- Travis Etienne (20.49)
- Raheem Mostert (19.07)
- Derrick Henry (15.34)
- Josh Jacobs (14.56)
Gus Edwards has been the top-scoring back over the last three weeks (21.40, 29.40, and 17.20).
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 9 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Elite Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $10,500)
For any daily gamer starting their roster with McCaffrey, they tied up 18.4% of the salary at DraftKings and 17.5% at FanDuel. He averages 26.43 and 23.05 fantasy points at those sites, giving him a floor of 2.87X and 2.19X if McCaffrey hits his scoring average. His only impact game (48.70 fantasy points) came in Week 4 vs. the Cardinals at home. He scored at least 22.50 fantasy points in five other matchups, with his second-highest output (29.80) coming in Week 8.
McCaffrey gains his edge by scoring touchdowns (13 over eight games). He reached paydirt in 17 consecutive contests. Over his last two starts, the 49ers had him on the field for 98.2% of their snaps.
The Jaguars are about league average in running back defense (15th – 19.68 FPPG), with their down games in fantasy points allowed coming in Week 6 (29.40) and Week 7 (30.70). Over the last three games, running backs have been productive in catches (1IND – 11/84, NO – 12/91, and PIT – 9/61) while receiving 38 combined targets. Jacksonville allowed 3.6 yards per rush (16.9 attempts per game by running backs). No team has scored more than one rushing touchdown in a game (four total by running backs).
For McCaffrey to pay off in Week 10, the Jaguars’ defense would have to have their worst day of the season. Also, the 49ers’ top back would have to score almost all of the team’s fantasy points. On the positive side, he could have his best day catching the ball based on the direction of Jacksonville’s defense in this area over the past three weeks. McCaffrey has the highest floor in the game while forcing a DFS player to be creative when filling out the backend of their roster.
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NFL DFS Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. 49ers
NFL DFS Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. 49ers This article will help you build your NFL DFS Monday Night Football […]
Season Long – All Sports
Fantasy Football Injury Report
Fantasy Football Injury Report Another week, another round of impactful injuries. Approaching the mid-point of 2023 and it’s unlikely any […]
DFS
Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall […]
Week 6 DFS: Running Back Report
Travis Etienne (36.40) was the top running back in Week 5 after posting his best game (184 combined yards with two touchdowns and four catches) of his career. Zack Moss (33.50) and Breece Hall (28.40) were the only other backs with impact games. Moss was a surprise due to Jonathan Taylor’s return to action for the Colts. Hall hit on 72-yard touchdown, setting up his big day (22/177/1 with three catches for 17 yards). Only two other running backs (De’Von Achane – 22.50 and David Montgomery – 20.90) scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five running backs over the first five weeks in PPR formats:
- Christian McCaffrey – 134.80
- Rahaam Mostert – 106.20
- De’Von Achane – 102.70
- Travis Etienne – 92.00
- Kenneth Walker – 73.60
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 6 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,500/FD – $10,300)
Last week, the 49ers’ running backs combined for 224 yards with three touchdowns and six catches, but McCaffrey had his worst fantasy game (14.80) of the season due to game score. He still had 21 touches while extending his touchdown streak to 14 games. Over his first two road starts, McCaffrey averaged 152 yards with one touchdown and three catches.
Cleveland has the fourth-best running back defense (14.00 FPPG). They’ve allowed only 3.2 yards per rush, with backs scoring two touchdowns. The Browns won the time of possession battle by a wide margin over the first three weeks, leading to their defense facing only 56 rushing attempts vs. Cincinnati, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. Running backs have 17 catches for 123 yards on 24 targets vs. Cleveland.
With Deshaun Watson not playing again this week, the 49ers have a good chance of playing from the lead with favorable field position on many drives. McCaffrey has a high floor and scoring upside (the 49ers’ running backs have 10 touchdowns after five games), but he needs…
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Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat […]
Week 5 DFS: Running Back Report
Christian McCaffrey (48.70 fantasy points) was the best running back in the land in Week 4, thanks to 186 combined yards with four touchdowns and seven catches. David Montgomery climbed off the injury mat to post an exceptional day (32/121/3 with two catches for 20 yards). There was a tight battle between Josh Jacobs (27.90), Kyren Williams (27.70), and De’Von Achane (27.00) for the bronze medal for the week. Four other backs scored between 21.00 and 25.00 fantasy points in PPR formats, followed by 13 running backs with 10.00 to 20.00 fantasy points.
The Dolphins have two of the top four scoring backs, with both players (Raheem Mostert – 22.60 and De’Von Achane – 20.05) averaging more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here’s a look at the top five running backs after Week 4:
- Christian McCaffrey (120.00)
- Raheem Mostert (90.40)
- Kyren Williams (81.60)
- De’Von Achane (80.20 – 97.3% of his scoring came in his last two games).
- Kenneth Walker (73.60)
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 5 DFS QB Report and TE Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,400/FD – $10,700)
I bumped up McCaffrey’s projections late last week after Elijah Mitchell was trending toward a scratch on Sunday. The added touches cleared the hurdle for a potential second score and more production in yards and catches. He finished with an impact day, one needed to win in the DFS market. His success raised his season average to 32.25 fantasy points in DraftKings scoring. The 49ers had him on the field for 85% of their plays, leading to a season-high in touches (27 – averaging 24.5 chances).
Dallas leads the NFL in fantasy running back defense (12.90 FPPG). Despite their success, the Cowboys allow 4.6 yards per rush (70/306/2 to running backs). They’ve faced four subpar offenses (NYG, NYJ, ARI, and NE) while playing from the lead in three matchups. Backs only have 15 catches for 65 yards on 21 targets. In 2022, Dallas had the second-best defense (18.08 FPPG) vs. running backs, with no team scoring more than 30.50 fantasy points in PPR leagues.
Mitchell didn’t practice this week, suggesting McCaffrey will be on the field for most snaps again in Week 5. He is an electric back who can score fantasy points in all facets of the game. His top-shelf salary and matchup invite lower ownership, along with…
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Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report
Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running […]
Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report
Last week we had some breakout performances. That included running backs, with five rushers eclipsing 20 points. A pair even topped 40. Oddly, they were on the same team. Our Week 4 DFS: Running Back Report looks for the next huge game to insert into your daily lineups.
Also, check out FullTime Fantasy‘s Week 3 DFS QB Report.
Top Tier Options
Christian McCaffrey, SF (DK – $9,200/FD – $9,700
Over the first three games, McCaffrey scored between 22.50 and 25.90 fantasy points in each matchup with PPR scoring. He extended his touchdown streak to 12 games but scored twice in only one contest. In addition, McCaffrey gained more than 100 yards in each of his starts (152, 116, and 119) while averaging 3.7 catches. Last season, he had 108 combined yards with one touchdown and nine catches vs. the Cardinals while playing with Carolina. With San Fran against Arizona in other matchups, McCaffrey gained 185 yards with one score and 10 catches.
The Cardinals sit 25th defending running backs (75/325/1 with 15 catches for 82 yards and three touchdowns on 17 targets). The Cowboys ran the ball well against them in Week 3 (33/185 – 5.6 yards per rush). Their pass rush (11 sacks) has been better than expected out of the gate, and Arizona played from the lead in all three of their games through the third quarter.
McCaffrey is an absolute beast on a path to being the best running back in the game in 2023. The 49ers will ride him hard when needed (100% of their snaps in Week 2) while resting him when playing from a big lead. His floor has been three times his salary, putting him a second touchdown away from 30.00 fantasy points. The second half could be in the hands of Elijah Mitchell on many plays, so McCaffrey will need to get his scoring and yards early in the game. He is rated as the top running back…
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