Week 15 Quarterback Report

December 14, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report Lamar Jackson (35.80) led the league in fantasy points in Week 15, lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (295.10). Desmond Ridder (29.85) posted his best game of the season, placing him second for the […]

Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report

Lamar Jackson (35.80) led the league in fantasy points in Week 15, lifting him to fourth in quarterback scoring (295.10). Desmond Ridder (29.85) posted his best game of the season, placing him second for the week, followed by Jake Browning (27.45) and Justin Fields (26.95). Eleven other quarterbacks scored more than 20.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 14 weeks:

Josh Allen (27.60)
Jalen Allen (26.05)
Dak Prescott (24.22)
Lamar Jackson (22.70)
Brock Purdy (22.66)

Using our Week 15 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 15 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top-Tier Options

Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $8,100/FD – $8,800)

The Eagles completed a challenging five-game stretch (DAL, @KC, BUF, SF, and @DAL), where they went 3-2. Over this span, Hurts averaged 210 passing yards with six touchdowns. He helped his floor with success in the run game (48/180/6). His best value in fantasy points came in Week 4 (31.35), Week 8 (31.55), and Week 12 (38.50). When at his best, Hurts attempted more than 35 passes (six times).

The Seahawks rank 22nd defending quarterbacks (20.75 FPPG), with one team scoring more than 30.00 fantasy points (DAL – 322/3). Five teams (LAR – 334/0, DET – 323/3, CAR – 361/2, WAS – 312/3, and SF – 368/2) passed for more than 300 yards. Their defense has risk at times vs. running quarterbacks (NYG – 10/66, ARI – 7/43/1, and BAL – 14/68). In addition, running backs scored 16 of their 36 offensive touchdowns allowed. Seattle’s defense gave up 13 touchdowns and three field goals over 35 possessions by their opponents.

The Eagles have risk defending the pass, pointing to a competitive game on the scoreboard. Hurts has a winnable matchup, and Philadelphia needs to regain the bounce in their offense after being held to 32 points over the past two weeks.

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Week 14 Quarterback Report

December 7, 2023 Shawn Childs

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite […]

Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report

Geno Smith (34.20) and Jake Browning (30.90) were the two surprises in quarterback scoring in Week 13, leading to them finishing first and fourth in scoring. Brock Purdy (32.60 – 2nd) had his second elite game over the past three weeks despite not attempting more than 27 passes in each matchup. Dak Prescott (31.25 – 3rd) posted his fifth impact showing over the last six weeks. Eight other quarterbacks scored between 20.00 and 28.00 fantasy points. Here are the top five quarterbacks by scoring average after 13 weeks:

Josh Allen (27.91)
Jalen Hurts (27.23)
Dak Prescott (24.43)
C.J. Stroud (23.62)
Justin Herbert (22.52)

Using our Week 14 Fantasy Football Rankings, let’s break down this week’s field in the FullTime Fantasy Week 14 NFL Quarterback Report.

Top Tier Options

Josh Allen, BUF (DK – $8,300/FD – $9,000)

Over his last seven starts, Allen gained fewer than 7.0 yards per pass attempt in five matchups (5.6, 6.5, 6.8, 6.8, and 6.6). He threw an interception in eight consecutive games. Allen tried to carry the Bills on his back in his start vs. the Eagles (420 combined yards with four touchdowns), but it wasn’t enough to win the game. All three (39.70, 32.35, and 33.30) of his other games with more than 30.00 fantasy points came at home. He has nine rushing scores over his last 10 starts.

Kansas City slipped to ninth in quarterback defense (17.55 FPPG), with only Jordan Love (26.35) scoring more than 25.00 fantasy points. They allow 6.9 yards per pass attempt, with quarterbacks tossing 18 touchdowns. The Chiefs have yet to give up more than three touchdowns in any matchup in 2023.

Allen is the highest-scoring quarterback (27.91) with a reasonable chance at scoring 3 times his salary at DraftKings in most weeks. His ceiling requires the Chiefs to play at a higher level offensively as well. I view him as more of a gamble than a target in Week 14.

Patrick Mahomes, KC (DK – $7,900/FD – $8,400)

Over the last five games, Patrick Mahomes averaged 222 passing yards with only seven touchdowns and some help in the run game (24/117). The Chiefs’ lack of star power at wide receiver remains an issue. His only game (453/4) supporting his current salary came in Week 7 at home against the Chargers. Mahomes has 14 touchdowns in six games in Kansas City compared to eight on the road over the same number of snaps. In 2022, he gained 359 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Bills.

Buffalo showed more risk

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Week 13 NFL Player Props

December 1, 2023 Matt Brandon

Week 13 NFL Player Props We are back to make some cash on player props in Week 13. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, we are now 34-28 (+6.9 Units). Sports betting is about riding the hot streaks […]

Week 13 NFL Player Props

We are back to make some cash on player props in Week 13. Through the first 12 weeks of the season, we are now 34-28 (+6.9 Units). Sports betting is about riding the hot streaks and surviving the cold spells. After our first losing streak of the season in back-to-back weeks, it’s time to get back into the winning column. Have some faith as lady luck is about to shine some light on some juicy plays for us to exploit with these Week 13 NFL Player Props.

As always, I will be listing my seven favorite player props of the week as we gear up for Week 13’s slate of NFL matchups. Unlike last week when every one of the 32 teams was in action, six teams will get some rest on their bye weeks. The Minnesota Vikings, Chicago Bears, New York Giants, Buffalo Bills, Baltimore Ravens, and Las Vegas Raiders will not suit up in Week 13. That said, we still have 13 competitive matchups this week with only three games that have a spread of more than a touchdown.

Fantasy football players have an edge when it comes to prop betting because we are so in tune with individual player performances. As always, remember to odds shop at your different sportsbooks to find the best values for the prop bets listed below. Now, let’s get down to business and find the best Week 13 NFL player prop bets and continue our profitable NFL season.

Brock Purdy OVER 254.5 Passing Yards (-115)

The San Francisco 49ers have done an excellent job surrounding Purdy with immense talent. With Brandon Aiyuk, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and of course Christian McCaffrey, Purdy has all the weapons in his arsenal to continue to move the ball effectively, even if this may be his toughest test to date.

In a preview of what many expect to be the NFC Championship, the Niners draw the 10-1 Philadelphia Eagles on the road in Week 13. Although Philly’s defensive front tends to get a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks, this defense has struggled at limiting yardage through the air. The Eagles rank 29th in the league in passing yards allowed per game and allow the second-most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks this season.

*The Eagles offer a fantastic matchup for Brock Purdy to attack per FullTime Fantasy’s Points Allowed Tool.*

In San Francisco’s 31-13 thrashing of the Seattle Seahawks on Thanksgiving Day, Purdy only mustered 209 passing yards. But that’s because the team didn’t need him to sling it as they dominated in every facet of the game and had a double-digit lead most of the game after a 17-point second quarter. However, prior to last week’s outing, Purdy has topped 260 passing yards in four straight contests.

It’s also important to note that the Eagles have the third-ranked rushing defense in the NFL. Although Kyle Shanahan would love to employ a run-heavy approach utilizing superstar Christian McCaffrey in the trenches and Deebo Samuel on the edge, the running game may not be so effective against this high-caliber defensive front. If the Niners are going to keep pace with Jalen Hurts and the Eagles, Purdy will have to air it out.

The Eagles are coming off an impressive 37-34 overtime victory over the Buffalo Bills but they did allow a whopping 339 passing yards from Josh Allen. And although they held Patrick Mahomes in check, yielding just 177 passing yards from him in Week 11, Dak Prescott lit this secondary up to for 374 yards back in Week 9 before Philly’s Week 10 bye. Want more evidence? Sam Howell produced 397 passing yards against the Eagles back in Week 8 and Howell isn’t as talented as Purdy nor does he have the same caliber of weapons at his disposal. It’s clear that although Philly is finding ways to win (sometimes in ugly fashion), they are very beatable in the passing game.

In what should be a very tightly contested battle, San Francisco will have to throw the ball often to move the chains and put points up on the board. Given Purdy’s recent form, the weapons around him, expected gameflow, and Philly’s recent struggles against the pass, Purdy should eclipse this line easily. I’m throwing multiple units on this one. Take the Over!

Jordan Love…

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NFL DFS Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. 49ers

October 23, 2023 Matt Brandon

NFL DFS Monday Night Football: Vikings vs. 49ers This article will help you build your NFL DFS Monday Night Football […]

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3

September 20, 2023 Jody Smith

Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 Last week’s battle was as high-scoring and entertaining as we expected. For Week 3, old NFC rivals square off. However, injuries to both teams will have an impact. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: […]

Last week’s battle was as high-scoring and entertaining as we expected. For Week 3, old NFC rivals square off. However, injuries to both teams will have an impact. FullTime Fantasy‘s Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3 breaks down the Giants versus 49ers grudge match.

New York pulled off an improbable comeback on Sunday in Arizona but must avoid getting down early to this talented San Francisco squad. Also, the Giants are expected to be without their top offensive weapon.

The 49ers look like one of the best teams in football. San Francisco has won 12 of their last 18 against the G-Men and enter this game as 9.5-point favorites.

Matchup

TEAM	OFFENSE	PASS	RUSH	YDS/PLAY	POINTS
New York Giants	23	24	13	25	28
San Francisco 49ers	7	16	3	2	3

Things looked dire for the Giants last week. After getting drubbed in their opener, Brian Daboll’s team found themselves down 20-0 at halftime against the lowly Arizona Cardinals in Glendale on Sunday. Fortunately, the Giants stormed back and outscored the Cards 31-7 in the second half to improve to 1-1.

Playing that lackadaisically won’t work against Kyle Shanahan’s 49ers.

San Francisco beat the Rams to improve to 2-0. The 49ers boast the league’s No. 7 offense and have also allowed the third-fewest points in the league. Shanahan’s crew can win via the pass or run and will bring it defensively.

Also, the Giants will be without their best weapon, RB Saquon Barkley. This complicates things for Daboll and company. Also, the Giants will be without Andrew Thomas and Ben Bredeson on the offensive line.

However, this game still has significant fantasy football and DFS implications that we will break down in this Thursday Night Football Preview: Week 3…

How will Thursday’s Giants vs. 49ers game go?

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Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report

September 13, 2023 Shawn Childs

After a wild Week 1, Shawn Childs provides his Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report so you can dominate on DraftKings and FanDuel! Week 2 DFS: Quarterback Report Top Tier Options Jalen Hurts, PHI (DK – $7,800/FD – $8,800) On the […]

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NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

September 2, 2023 Shawn Childs

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5 Over/Under: 41.0 The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting […]

NFL Week 1 49ers at Steelers: DFS & Fantasy Preview

Betting Line: 49ers – 2.5

Over/Under: 41.0

The 49ers stroll into Pittsburgh with their “Purdy Young Thing” back at quarterback. Brock Purdy went 7-1 in his rookie season after starting the year third on the depth chart. San Francisco has the best all-around running back (Christian McCaffrey) in the game, with three productive pieces (Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and George Kittle) at receiver. Their star DE Nick Bosa wants a new deal, and he has yet to report to the team. The 49ers need his pass rush (34 sacks over his last 33 games) to maintain their high ranking on defense.

The Steelers struggled to score points (308), with Kenny Pickett assuming the quarterback duties after Ben Roethlisberger retired. The Steelers’ offense has depth at running back (Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren) and the talent to move the ball via the pass with Diontae Johnson, George Pickens, and Pat Freiermuth. The key to all players is increased production by Pickett.

Note: The fantasy points per $1,000 are based on the early projections for Week 1.

The above grid shows the top players excepted to contribute in Week 1 in the fantasy games. I listed each player’s salary at DraftKings and FanDuel, plus their fantasy points expected per $1,000 of salary invested. In GPP (grand prize pools) events, the goal is to find players with a chance to score four times their salary at DraftKings ($50,000 salary cap and three times at FanDuel ($60,000 salary cap).

San Francisco 49ers

Brock Purdy

Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts at Iowa. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.
Over his eight full starts, Purdy attempted more than 30 passes in only two games (MIA – 37 and @LV – 35). He had a floor of two touchdowns in his first in seven matchups while delivering one impact game (348/4).
His completion rate (67.1) and yards per pass attempt (8.1) rank highly in the NFL.
Purdy saw his season end in the Super Bowl due to an injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February.
Pittsburgh was about league-average defending quarterbacks (19.59 FPPG) last season, but two offenses posted impact games (32.40 and 32.25). They played without their top pass rusher (T.J. Watt) for seven games.
Despite his success last year, Purdy was a modified game manager. He has to prove his elbow is healthy before riding him in the daily space. The 49ers have plenty of receiving weapons, so I can’t totally write him off in Week 1.

Christian McCaffrey

Over his final nine games with the 49ers, McCaffrey gained 1,066 yards with 10 touchdowns and 39 catches, an average of 18.94 FPPG in PPR formats.
His salary requires 35.00 fantasy points at DraftKings for him to be worth his investment. He posted one impact game (40.60), with three high-floor showings (28.60, 29.30, and 31.30).
Pittsburgh gave up six receiving scores to running back in 2022, but they limited the damage in catches (64) and receiving yards (523). Their defense held backs to 4.2 yards per carry with seven scores on the ground.
McCaffrey isn’t the workhorse he once was with the Panthers, but he will get plenty of chances to make plays. His pass-catching ability set a nice floor while needing multiple scores to pay off his top-tier salary

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2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook

August 2, 2023 Shawn Childs

2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player […]

2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook

The 2023 NFL season is right around the corner and that means fantasy football drafts are underway. Before you assemble your championship dynasty, redraft, or high-stakes squad, FullTime Fantasy members will have an in-depth, player-by-player preview of all 32 teams from football legend Shawn Childs.

Also, check out Jody Smith’s NFL offensive line rankings and exclusive 2023 Strength of Schedule analysis.

Up next in our extensive NFL and fantasy football preview series is Shawn’s deep dive into the 2023 San Francisco 49ers Outlook.

— Quarterback —

Brock Purdy

Over four seasons at Iowa, Purdy passed for 12,170 yards with 81 touchdowns and 33 interceptions over 48 starts. He added 365 rushes for 1,177 yards and 19 touchdowns. The 49ers drafted him in the seventh round in 2022.

Injuries at quarterback last season gave Purdy their starting job in Week 13. Over his eight games, he went 8-0 with 1,854 passing yards, 18 touchdowns, and three interceptions. Purdy completed 66.8% of his passes with elite yards per pass attempt (8.4). His impact showing came in the first game in the postseason (348 yards and four scores). When him behind center, San Fran averaged 27.5 passes.

His season ended in the Super Bowl due to an ACL injury in his right elbow that required surgery in mid-February. Baseball players need 18 months to recover fully from these types of injuries. The 49ers believe he has a shot to be ready for Week 1.

Fantasy Outlook: His success in 2022 (172.2 fantasy points in a four-point passing touchdown league) projected over 17 games ranked Purdy as a top-10 quarterback.

Jody Smith: Purdy has returned to the 49ers and is taking the majority of first-team reps. Also, Kyle Shanahan has praised Purdy’s leadership and rehab. That puts the sophomore signal caller in-line to be the club’s starter in Week One. View Purdy as an upside QB2 with a targetable discount ADP.

Trey Lance

With the third overall pick in the 2021 NFL Draft, the 49ers invested in Lance. His natural comparison would be Lamar Jackson by stats, but Lance can’t match his top-end speed or arm strength. He plays with his eyes up when breaking the pocket while featuring an explosive gear when turning a run-up field. My comp was closer to Deshaun Watson in overall look.

Lance needs more experience reading defenses and will be tested as a passer at the next level. His challenge will come in defeating coverage in the deep passing game, as his reads will invite runs before a wide receiver breaks free over the long field.

Lance came to the NFL with one starting season on his resume in college. In his sophomore year in 2019, he passed for 2,786 yards and 28 touchdowns while not throwing an interception. Also, Lance was a beast on the ground (169/1,100/14), setting up an intriguing NFL career. Back in 2020, North Dakota State canceled the football season after one game, leading to him entering the draft. His style of play fits well in the 49ers’ offense. They want to control the line of scrimmage with a dominant run game while offering an exciting combination of receivers at wide receiver and tight end.

In six games of action in his rookie season, he gained 771 combined yards with six touchdowns and two interceptions. Lance saw 2022 end after 82 snaps over two games due to a broken right ankle. He struggled in his only complete game (164/0 with 13 rushes for 54 yards).

Fantasy Outlook: The spring reports have been positive, pointing to Lance fighting for the 49ers’ starting quarterback job. Brock Purdy is trending toward being ready for Week 1. San Francisco has a challenging decision in 2023, but Lance has to prove he can win games in the NFL before regaining the starting job.

Other Options: Sam Darnold, Brandon Allen

Update: Brock Purdy has returned to the lineup. Also, some reports indicate that Lance has slipped to third on the depth chart. Plus, the 49ers reportedly have received “substantial” trade inquiries for Lance. Other Opt

— Running Backs —

The 49ers’ running backs scored 73 touchdowns over the past three seasons. The addition of Christian McCaffrey led to new tops in all categories except for rushing touchdowns (18) last year. They gained 3,050 combined yards with 24 scores and 87 catches (31.53 FPPG in PPR formats). Their backs have had more than 500 touches each season from 2020 and 2022.

Christian McCaffrey

McCaffrey led fantasy leagues in running back scoring in PPR leagues in 2018 (387.0) and 2019 (471.2). In 2019, he finished with 403 touches while only being the third player in NFL history to gain over 1,000 yards rushing (1,387) and receiving (1,005). McCaffrey gained over 100 yards rushing in six of his first nine games but none over the final seven weeks. Carolina featured him more in the passing games (68/609/1) over his downturn in rushing yards, highlighted by three outings (11/121, 11/82, and 15/119). McCaffrey had 10 catches or more in five games.

He averaged 28.7 touches per game (30.13 FPPG) in 2020 while missing 13 weeks with ankle, thigh, and shoulder injuries. In 2021, McCaffrey played well over his seven starts (785 combined yards with two touchdowns and 37 catches). His regression in scoring led to 18.21 FPPG with a step down in touches (19.4 per week) due to his injuries (hamstring and ankle).

After missing 24 games in 2020 and 2021, McCaffrey played the entire season last year, leading to 1,880 combined yards with 13 touchdowns and 85 catches. In his 13 full games with the 49ers, he averaged 22.34 FPPG while averaging 19.5 touches. His best two showings in fantasy points came in Week 8 (40.60) and Week 17 (31.30).

Fantasy Outlook: With the risk factor a little further in the background and another stellar season on his resume, McCaffrey has a bright shade of green next to his name on the draft sheet. San Francisco features their running back position in their offense, and they have the best option in the league in the starting lineup. McCaffrey is a top-three player drafted in 2023. His floor, with 17 games played, should be 350 touches for 1,900 yards with 17 touchdowns and 90 catches.

Elijah Mitchell

Over his four seasons at Louisiana, Mitchell had success on the ground (527/3,267/41 – 6.2 yards per rush) with some chances in the passing game (49/597/5). He brings plus speed and explosiveness to the 49ers’ offense.

For those fantasy drafters preaching to Trey Sermon or Raheem Mostert in the 49ers’ backfield in 2021, Mitchell emerged as their Week 1 starter and an excellent waiver wire pick. When on the field for his 11 matchups during the regular season, he delivered five games with over 100 yards rushing (19/104/1, 18/107/1, 18/137/1, 27/133/1, and 21/119) and a limited role in the passing game (19/137/1). San Francisco gave him at least 18 touches in 11 of his 14 starts (including the playoffs). Unfortunately, he missed six games with rib, finger, concussion, and knee issues.

Last year, Mitchell missed 12 games with knee and groin injuries. The 49ers gave him 67 touches over his six matchups with Christian McCaffrey on the field, leading to 333 combined yards with three touchdowns and five catches.

Fantasy Outlook: San Francisco would love Mitchell to stay healthy, and…

WHAT CAN WE EXPECT OUT OF THE NINERS IN 2023?

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