Daily Dr. Roto — July 2, 2018
Fantasy Football Overrated: Eagles TE Zach Ertz
It Ertz Not to Draft Zach This Season
Last year was one of my best years playing Fantasy Football. I won multiple high stakes league, including coming in second overall in the Online Championship. One of the main reasons I did so well was that I targeted Eagles TE Zach Ertz in the seventh round of every draft I did in 2017. That move paid off big time, as Ertz was one of the top five Fantasy TEs. He finished with 74 catches for 824 yards and 8 TDs last season, which gave me a distinct advantage over the rest of my competitors.
Although Ertz helped me win a lot of my leagues, I know that there is virtually no way that he will be on my team this season. Here’s why: because of the lack of tight end depth in Fantasy Football, Ertz’s value will be closer to the third or fourth round in drafts instead of the seventh and I do not want to pay a premium based on his last year’s numbers.
By taking Ertz in the third or fourth round, I am banking on the fact that he will produce the same (or better) numbers than he did last season. This won’t be easy to do as the Eagles will have a target on their backs as Super Bowl champions and most opposing defenses will be keying on Ertz as they know that he is Wentz’s favorite target. The way to win Fantasy Football leagues is to find value. Ertz represented a great value last year because Fantasy owners did not realize that he was going to be as good as he was in the red zone (career-high 8 TDs in 2017). Now everyone knows about Ertz, and there is no discount to be had.
It is my job now to find this year’s Ertz. I need to figure out who I can take in the later rounds who will give me more Fantasy production than expected. Some of my early potential candidates are:
- Jack Doyle — I love his upside with Luck returning
- Trey Burton — He should improve now that he doesn’t have to compete with Ertz for playing time
- David Njoku — A freakish athlete who is expected to have way more opportunities in 2018
- George Kittle — Opened many eyes last season as a rookie and gets to play with Jimmy G for an entire season
Who will I choose? I am not sure yet, but I do know that I won’t be paying the third or fourth round price tag for Zach Ertz. It is good to have allegiance to players who helped you win Fantasy Championships in the past, but to keep winning them in the future, it is imperative to think forward and not worry about past glory.
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