PITCHING
Wacha – home start for Wacha where he’s posted a 2.21 era and 22.8% k rate. He’s limited fly balls this year to around 27% overall. At home Wacha is pretty dominant against lefties, where they’ve hit just .195 and hasn’t allowed a home run. Pittsburgh also comes in hitting at just a 30% hard contact over the past week as well. (Risk factor 4)
Lester – I tend to like Lester a little bit more at home, but this is a good matchup here for him. Against LHP this year the Mets are dead last in average, home runs, wRC+, OPS, and 2nd in strikeout rate. Easy to say they suck against lefties. Lester has a better k rate on the road around 21%, so on paper this is a smash spot for him. Priced down at mid 8K, with a 35 point floor I like the spot. (Risk factor 3)
Hellickson – he’s been really good this year, limiting hitters to just a .219 avgetage on the road. Strikeout upside rises on the road as well, bumping up to 23.5%. What’s been helping him is his ground ball rate, that hovers around the 47% mark. He’s the cheap arm in order to pay up for bats like Cleveland. (Risk factor 5)
STACKS
Milwaukee vs Covey – lefties are what we want here, then power righties. Covey giving up a .323 avg, 52% hard contact and .360 wOBA to LHB
(Yelich – Shaw – Villar – Aguilar – Cain)
Cleveland vs Gibson – Gibson has been good this year, but has given up a .314 avg at home. Wind also seems to be blowing out pretty heavy to right center over 15 mph. Expect some long balls from the lefties today. (Whole lineup is in play with Favorites being top 3, lefties first then righties)
St. Louis vs Kingham – The rookie has struggled on the road with a 6.75 era and .273 average. Lefties hit him with for average, the righties for power. (Carp – Fowler – Martinez – Ozuna)
KC vs Gossett – Hammered on the road in his only start giving up 5 runs, and was bad on the road in 2017. Lefties hit .327 last year against him on the road with 4 HR. KC is hot again vs RHP, coming into today’s game with a .280 avg and 5 Hr over the past week. Lefties first then righties (Moose – Jay – Gordon – Whit – Salvy)
