2025 NFL Week 13 ‘Double-Week’ Circa Survivor Recap: Thanksgiving Day Massacre
All Underdogs Emerging Victorious on Thanksgiving and Black Friday Wipes Out 94.5% of the Remaining Field
Written by Frank Taddeo — @RespectedMoney on X
The brutal ‘Double-Week demand’, unique to the Las Vegas Circa Survivor contest, wiped out 94.5% of the remaining field following a trio of shocking upsets on Thanksgiving Day coupled with another major favorite going down on Black Friday.
In Week 13a, 838 entrants were eliminated from winning the $18.7 million prize after all three favorites on Thanksgiving Day, followed by the Eagles on Black Friday all lost outright.
Following losses by the Lions, Chiefs and Ravens on Turkey Day crushed the hopes of 360 contestants, the biggest knock-out blow came on Black Friday when the Bears upsetting the Eagles, as more than a full-touchdown underdog, terminated another 489 (54.2%) entrants.
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) November 30, 2025
After the quadruple death-blow for the majority of the contest, only 49 entrants moved forward to Week 13b on Sunday.
Nearly half of the pool who remained received a big scare on Sunday after Justin Herbert was forced to leave the Chargers showdown with the Raiders after suffering a broken bone in his non-throwing hand on the first offensive series of the game.
bolt the f up pic.twitter.com/TzTBJmMKo1
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) December 1, 2025
To the delight of the 21 players who made Los Angeles the most chosen team of the “Double Week” (42.9%), the veteran gun-slinger returned, and despite only throwing eight passes after halftime, led the ‘Bolts to a comfortable 31-14 victory.
However, there would be no happy ending to the Holiday weekend for four entrants who backed the biggest favorite on the Sunday slate.
— Yahoo Sports (@YahooSports) December 1, 2025
Matthew Stafford and the Rams witnessed their six-game winning streak come to an end after suffering a 31-28 road loss at the hands of Bryce Young and the Carolina Panthers.
Circa Survivor, which drew a record-breaking $18,718,000 million prize pool this year, does not require the need to cover any point spread. However, simply picking straight-up winners in the NFL is not so easy.
18,673 (99.8%) contestants are out after the Thanksgiving “Double-Week”, leaving only 45 entries (1.2%) continuing their sweat onto Week 14 for the ultimate grand prize.
— Survivor Sweat (@SurvivorSweat) December 2, 2025
On the week, favorites went 9-7 Straight-up (SU), but underdogs once again reigned supreme earning a 10-6 Against the Spread (ATS) edge. Overall, favorites maintain a sizable 129-60-1 SU (4 pick-ems) mark, while ‘dogs have grabbed hold of a 95-94-1 ATS (50.3%) advantage on the year. Home teams hold a 103-83-1 SU (55.3%) advantage with 7 neutral-site International games, while also owning the more coveted 98-89 ATS (52.4%) edge. Lower scoring games than expected by the experts in the desert resulted in Unders posting a 9-7 mark. Overall, Unders maintain a slim 97-95-2 (50.3%) lead on the season.
The Circa Survivor contest is a grueling contest which forces entrants to pick one winner every week, with no spread with one pivotal caveat. Entrants CAN NOT use the same team more than once during the course of the season. Circa Survivor, which requires a $1,000 entry fee, will once again be a massive sweat for those who run deep into the season due to the massive winner-take-all prize pool.
As for the look-ahead to the Week 14 slate, it is expected that:
- Tampa Bay (-9.5) vs New Orleans
- Denver (-8) at Las Vegas
- Rams (-8) at Arizona
- Seattle (-7) at Atlanta
will be among the most heavily chosen teams in the contest.
Circa Resort & Casino in Las Vegas, home to the prestigious Fantasy Football World Championship, continues to deliver world-class content from the best players to help fans win and stay informed. Stay tuned for more expert insights as the season unfolds!
