Super Bowl LIX Preview
This is it—one final game in New Orleans. FullTime Fantasy‘s Super Bowl LIX breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective for Sunday’s Eagles vs. Chiefs showdown.
And just because the fantasy regular season has ended doesn’t mean the fun is over. FFWC Playoff Fantasy Football is a great way to extend the fantasy fun and win amazing prizes!
Kansas City Chiefs (17-2) at Philadelphia Eagles (17-3)
Time: 6:30 Eastern from New Orleans, LA
Line: Chiefs -1
Total: 49.5
Money Line: Eagles EVEN, Chiefs -120
Chiefs Offense
It felt like the Chiefs were sleepwalking through games for a chunk of the regular season. They infamously were one of only four teams to not score more than 30 points all season. The other three teams are all near the top of the 2025 NFL Draft. However, Kansas City’s defense stepped up, allowing the fourth-fewest points.
Our RDA* projections for Patrick Mahomes are similar to the current Vegas lines. Vegas projects Mahomes to have 251.5 passing yards, three more than RDA*. There may be some value in the under 1.5 touchdown passes at (+142). Mahomes has been under in both playoff games and five of his last seven overall.
Vegas only projects Isiah Pacheco to garner 21.5 rushing yards- an appallingly low total. Our RDA* projections have him over 45. On the other hand, we see a split backfield, with Kareem Hunt also projected to top 45 rushing yards. This is more in line with the Vegas totals, which have Hunt forecasted to top 52 scrimmage yards.
Here are the projected Vegas receiving totals for the Chiefs’ wideouts:
Xavier Worthy – 56.5, +165 to score a TD
Hollywood Brown – 41.5, +270
DeAndre Hopkins – 32.5, +650(!)
Finally, here are the RDA* projections:
Xavier Worthy – 52.7, 39%
Hollywood Brown – 45.3, 30%
DeAndre Hopkins – 40.3, 30%
Travis Kelce always comes up big. And there’s a chance this is his final Super Bowl and there will undoubtedly be plenty of media attention. Vegas has Kelce’s total at 61.5 yards and +135 to score. Our numbers are 60.1 yards with 43% TD odds.
Eagles Offense
Jalen Hurts played well against the Chiefs in Super Bowl LVII before a late fumble. His shot at redemption is here but it will be a much tougher Kansas City defense. The Chiefs are particularly potent against the run, which will force Hurts to go to the air. Hurts’ pass attempts prop of 27.5 is the highest it’s been since December 1.
Only one running back rushed for more than 75 yards this season against Kansas City’s stout run D. However, Saquon Barkley exceeded 2,000 for the season and is no ordinary rusher. Still, his over/under of 110.5 rushing yards seems too high. Our RDA* projections are significantly lower, making the UNDER 110.5 one of the best values of this slate.
A.J. Brown (6.4/86/.56) is our No. 1 wide receiver this week, and DeVonta Smtih (5.9/70.8/.44) comes in at No. 2. Conversely, the Chiefs were merely average defending wide receivers, allowing over 33 fantasy points per game to the position.
Finally, at tight end, Dallas Goedert has an RDA* projection of four grabs for 45.3 yards and a solid 46% chance of scoring.
The NFL season is almost over but it’s not too late to get access to the best help out there! All FullTime Fantasy members get exclusive access to our 24/7 Chat Room on Discord!
All morning on Sunday, Senior Analyst Jody Smith will be standing by to answer all your crucial start/sit and keep you updated with all the latest news and injury updates.
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