NFC Championship Preview
We are down to the final four. FullTime Fantasy‘s NFC Championship Preview breaks down the slate from a fantasy football and sports betting perspective for Sunday’s Commanders vs. Eagles showdown.
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Washington Commanders (14-5) at Philadelphia Eagles (15-3)
Time: 3:00 Eastern
Line: Eagles -6
Total: 48.5
Money Line: Commanders +230, Eagles -280
Commanders Offense
Jayden Daniels is already setting records. However, with one more win, Daniels would become the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to start in a Super Bowl.
The Eagles and Commanders split their season series. In those two games, Daniels averaged 224.5 passing yards, three touchdowns, and one interception. However, five of those six TD tosses came in Washington’s 36-33 Week 16 win. Daniels also ran for 99 yards against the Eagles this season.
Philadelphia ranked first against the pass in 2024. Additionally, the Eagles allowed the second-fewest points. However, Daniels was electric against them last month and fantasy managers need not shy away from paying up to start him in a game that has a fantasy-friendly over/under.
RB Brian Robinson Jr. has a rushing prop of 36.5 yards. He previously ran for 63 yards and a score in Philly but didn’t do much in the high-scoring rematch. Only Kansas City allowed fewer fantasy points to running backs than Philadelphia, but our RDA* projections have him clearing that total by 10 yards.
Austin Ekeler won’t see as many carries but will absorb plenty of targets. He reeled in 8-0f-9 for 89 yards in Week 16 and was very good last week in Detroit. In PPR scoring, he’s our RB6 for the week.
WR Terry McLaurin‘s current Vegas receiving line is five grabs for 64 yards with a +140 line to score. However, the Eagles shut McLaurin down in both games, limiting him to 10 and 60 yards with a TD in Week 16. McLaurin lines up on the left 63 percent of the time, so he’ll mostly avoid Darius Slay. RDA* projections have McLaurin at 67.8 yards.
Outside McLaurin, the remainder of Washington’s receiving corps should be viewed only as DFS longshots.
However, Dyami Brown is interesting in that capacity. He’s come on during the postseason run, catching 11 balls for 187 yards and a touchdown. His receiving prop sits at 44.5 yards, which is respectable for a player who only topped that twice in the regular season.
Olamide Zaccheaus and Jamison Crowder will split slot duties. These two veterans combined to score five touchdowns all season. However, four of those came against the Eagles in Week 16.
TE Zach Ertz had one good game (6/47/1) against his former team and one atrocious outing (1/12/0) in Philly. Overall, the Eagles allowed the third-fewest fantasy points to the position, so not a great matchup for Ertz. However, he is the best bet to command the second-most targets and there aren’t many dependable fantasy options at tight end this week.
Eagles Offense
The Eagles are 14-1 in their last 15 games. And that one L came in Week 16 against these Washington Commanders, 36-33. The deciding game will be played at Lincoln Financial Field and the Eagles are favored by six.
In Jalen Hurts‘s last meeting with the Commanders, his passing yardage prop was 196.5. He got injured that week but he’s fully healthy now. However, this week’s passing yardage prop has dipped to 182.5, which is right in line with our RDA* projections. Of course, Hurts is -115 to rush for a TD with 31.5 as the yardage prop.
Washington ranked 30th in run defense this season so prime matchup for Saquon Barkley. Barkley scored 31.8 and 27 fantasy points versus the Commanders this season. His Week 21 yardage prop of 130.5 is unheard of. Pay up.
With Hurts having depressed passing projections, Philaelphia’s receivers bear the brunt. A.J. Brown‘s Vegas totals are below 60 yards with a lowly +155 mark to score. Our RDA* projections, however, are more bullish.
DeVonta Smith‘s lines (47.5, +190) are even lower. However, Smith is our WR3 for the week, so there is a lot of value in targeting him in DFS lineups. Before last week, Smith had topped 50 receiving yards in four straight, including 6/51/0 against Washington in Week 16.
Jahan Dotson will be the WR3. However, Dotson is likely to spend more reps lined up on the left to free up Brown and Smith to avoid Marshon Lattimore’s RCB coverage.
TE Dallas Goedert has been on a bit of a heater since returning from IR. He’s caught four passes in each of his three games and he posted a solid 5/61/0 line on this secondary in Week 11.
Notable NFC Championship Preview betting takeaways per Ben Fawks and ESPN Bet:
- 68% of bets and 53.7% of handle are on Commanders (+6.5, opened +5)
- 39.9% of bets and 58.1% of handle are on Eagles ML (-280)
- 83.4% of bets and 77.9% of handle are on OVER (47.5, opened 47.5)
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