Week 15 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 15 Waiver Wire claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight. My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster with Week 15 Sleepers & Emerging Players.
This week, I will focus exclusively on the young receivers and review their performance using targets per route run and yards per route run metrics. The list below must include a minimum of ten targets.
Young Breakout Receivers (through Week 14)
The above table looks at all first and second-year WRs with at least 15% targets per route run (TPRR) and 1.5 yards per route run (YPRR) through ten weeks this year. Below are comments on players who stood out in Week 13.
Second Year Players
Puka Nacua: Nacua again is at the top of the list for first or second-year players. He collected twelve receptions on 14 targets for 162 yards and a touchdown. That was good for 41.8 fantasy points, 56% targets per route run (TPRR), and 6.5 yards per route run (YPRR). He is at the top of the list in YTD TPRR and YPRR rankings with 38% and 3.6 respectively.
Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks was an efficiency darling in 2023 but has had a difficult sophomore campaign. However, he was very efficient on his 18 routes this week. He collected five targets resulting in four receptions for 49 yards and no touchdowns. That was good for a 28% TPRR and 2.7 YPRR. His utilization has declined, but if he could get full-time usage with that efficiency, he would return to relevance.
Quentin Johnston: Johnston put up another solid week in his bounce-back season. Johnston earned seven targets for five receptions and 79 scoreless yards. That resulted in 26% TPRR and 1.8 YPRR. For the season, Johnston has 21% TPRR and 1.7 YPRR. Those are right at the numbers needed to build on to become a strong receiver in a full-time role.
Jordan Addison: Addison was one of the stars this week. He was a big part of a heavy pass attack. His fantasy day was helped by a couple of short-yardage touchdowns. But you cannot argue with his earning twelve targets resulting in eight receptions for 133 yards and three touchdowns. That brought his YTD performance to 21% TPRR and 2.2 YPRR.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba: Smith-Njigba is putting up fantasy numbers weekly at this point. His efficiency was mixed as he caught all five of his targets for 82 yards and one touchdown. That was a 19% TPRR and 3.2 YPRR performance on the week. That brought his YTD performance to 22% TPRR and 2.0 YPRR. He is another bounce-back first round receiver from 2023.
Rookies
Brian Thomas: Thomas is always dangerous. This week he earned twelve targets and caught eight of them for 86 yards. That resulted in a 36% TPRR and 2.6 YPRR. Both of those metrics are strong. During the year, Thomas earned 24% TPRR and 2.4 YPRR. He is another strong receiver from this rookie class.
Malik Nabers: Nabers played through another questionable tag as he battles his nagging groin injury. But, for the week, he earned 10 targets resulting in five receptions for 79 yards. He put in somewhat of a floor day with 20% TPRR and 1.6 YPRR bringing his YTD performance to 30% TPRR and 2.0 YPRR. His numbers have decayed over the weeks. He is still a very consistent performer, but his explosive games have eluded him of late. However, that could improve with Tommy DeVito back under center.
Jalen McMillan: McMillan has been quiet for most of the year, but he jumped out this week with four receptions on seven targets for 59 yards and two touchdowns. That resulted in a 26% TPRR and 2.2 YPRR. He needs to continue this performance for us to buy into it being a breakout, but he deserves mention for the solid week.
