AllenWeek 5 Sleepers, Potential-Emergent Players, and Opportunistic Plays
This article is contributed by Brad Kruse
This column is NOT intended to provide Week 5 waiver claims lists. Instead, the purpose is to look at young players whose opportunity could emerge and should be monitored. I will also look at potential injury replacement players, but I will try not to focus on the obvious choices for this week’s slate of games as that is covered elsewhere on the sight.
My goal is to help look around corners for the season which might give some ideas for pre-emptive adds to your roster.
Now that we have four weeks in the books, I can start extrapolating on statistics a bit more reliably.
Young Running Backs and Their Opportunity Status
Bucky Irving: The story with Irving continued into Week 4. Irving and Rachaad White both had 10 carries for 49 yards in this game. Irving had the lone RB TD. White out-targeted Irving 2:1 in the game. Irving is earning snaps and opportunities in this offense. White hasn’t gone away but he’s used far less than last season. Irving can be put into lineups during the byes.
Chase Brown: Brown did get the 50/50 split with RB carries in Week 4 that has been indicated as the plan since the off-season. Brown’s fantasy day was much larger with 80 yards on 15 carries plus two rushing touchdowns to go along with two receptions for 12 yards. Brown might be the back to own in this offense going forward, but Zack Moss is still playing well. Brown’s speed does jump out at you and Moss seems to be the preferred back in passing situations. Moss received all snaps in the two-minute drill and 60% of the third down action.
Carson Steele: This might have been a short-lived lead-back role for Steele. After a fumble in the first quarter, Kareem Hunt led the way from the 2nd quarter through the end of the game. He played well enough for the offense to operate. Samaje Perine was still the preferred third down and two-minute drill back. That didn’t leave a whole lot of action for Steele. You might hold him if you can afford to for another week to see if he can reprise his role or if the fumble gave way to an opportunity that Hunt seized.
Ray Davis: Davis again received some garbage time action in week 4. He’s not in the rotation enough to trust in your lineups and is strictly a handcuff right now who could split time with Ty Johnson if an injury happens to James Cook.
Braelon Allen: The Jets seem to have a problem, although a good problem. They have two good running backs. Breece Hall is struggling running the ball this year averaging only 3.11 yards per carry. Allen is averaging a robust 4.81 and seems to be getting used more each game. Allen is averaging 9.4 ppg and would be huge if Hall were to get injured. He’s useable during bye weeks and a premium handcuff for fantasy managers.
Roschon Johnson: The Bears have shrunk their three-headed running back committee to two backs. Johnson has gone from the outside looking in at the crowded running back rotation to part of the two-person committee. He didn’t have the break-out day many were hoping for as signals were coming in saying he would be used more. Johnson did get the majority of third-down work, he got a goal-line carry. But he ceded most of the two-minute snaps to D’Andre Swift who had a huge fantasy day. Johnson’s usage was encouraging despite the modest fantasy output despite the touchdown. He appears to be the current backup to Swift as he took about 25% of the early down work plus got the majority of third-down activity and one of the two goal-line touches.
Jaylen Wright: With both Raheem Mostert and Jeff Wilson OUT, Wright continued to earn opportunities. His usage excluded short yardage and goal line – all of those went to De’Von Achane, other than that he was used on early downs, third down, and even in the two-minute drill. He hasn’t yielded a fantasy day yet and the Dolphins offense is struggling without Tua. If he can carve out a role good things could happen once Tua Tagovaioa returns. However, he could also disappear once Mostert returns.
Tank Bigsby: Bigsby played a fair number of snaps in week 4, but D’Ernest Johnson picked up 4 third-down snaps to Bigsby’s one. Bigsby again demonstrated his proficiency in running the ball with 90 yards on seven carries. Unfortunately, he didn’t receive any targets in the passing game, nor did he score a TD. He carries premium handcuff appeal as well as being usable during byes, but if Travis Etienne were to go down, the passing down work would like to go to Johnson.
Breakout Wide Receivers
Sophomore Wideouts
Jayden Reed: Reed has continued with strong performances after his rookie breakout campaign. The crowded receiver room made many drafters nervous. But Reed’s talent has come to the forefront. He’s only run 72.6% of routes but is securing a decent, if underwhelming 18% target share. His yards per route run of 3.43 is elite. The Packers need to get him the ball more.
Rashee Rice: Another rookie year breakout that looked to have a secondary breakout this year. Going into week 4, Rice was participating in 76.9% of routes and had an outstanding 31% target share from Mahomes. His yards per route run of 3.60 was looking to provide league-winning numbers for those who drafted him.
However, in week 4 he looked to have suffered a significant knee injury. Many have speculated it was a season-ending torn ACL. At the time of this writing, however, they have yet to confirm that and provide any timeline. Hopefully, we will learn in the next day or two so fantasy managers can make appropriate lineup decisions.
Dontayvion Wicks: Wicks got his QB back and, unfortunately, Watson came down with an ankle sprain. The reports are it’s a mild ankle sprain which may cause him to miss week 5. Wicks responded with a big game in a negative game script securing five receptions for 78 yards and two TDs. He did this on 13 targets and added a couple more drops to his total this year, which has been his primary flaw.
So far this year, Wicks has run 52% of the routes and pulled down 22 targets (18%). In Week 4, that jumped to 75% of routes and a 24.1% target share. His yards/route run are down from last year’s highly efficient season, but now with Love back, the hopes for Wicks getting 70% plus routes and getting back to a 2+ yards/route run is encouraging.
Zay Flowers: Flowers technically broke out last year and was a pick in the top third of drafts, but let’s check in to see how he’s doing. Flowers is running routes on 88% percent of dropbacks and has a roughly 24% target share. His yards per route run is a disappointing 1.41 so far. The heavy run script Baltimore is using is no doubt hindering all their pass catchers with lower volume.
Jackson Smith-Njigba: JSN, was the first WR off the board in the NFL draft in 2023. He’s opening his sophomore campaign better than he did his freshman one, although he has been up and down through four weeks. But he’s running routs on 84% of dropbacks and has a 20.4% target share in this offense that features DK Metcalf as its clear No. 1 target. His yards/route run is an encouraging 1.84. You hope that he can move up above the 2.0 threshold, but he’s a big part of this passing attack.
Jordan Addison: Like Flowers, Addison technically broke out last year but came into this year hobbled and with a perceived large downgrade at QB. Addison has played in two games and has had a 62.7% route participation rate and a 15.4% target share. These numbers are biased by him missing time in Week 1 with injury. So, we’ll see how his numbers move as the season progresses. He has 29.4 points in two games this year and looks like to be a strong complement to Jefferson in this offense.
Josh Downs: Downs finished his freshman campaign strong; but opened up the year injured. With Anthony Richardson at QB, all pass catchers in this offense will suffer due to volume and QB accuracy. However, when Flacco entered the game, Downs did show he could be a productive receiver. It’ll be interesting how this evolves going forward. Downs ran routes on 71% of the dropbacks through the two games he’s played. And he’s earned a 28% target share. He has 27.4 points in two games thus far.
Demario Douglas: Douglas is another player in a low-volume, low-efficiency offense. He might be more relevant if a QB change is made, but that doesn’t appear to be happening this week. He’s running routes on 73.3% of dropbacks and has earned a 13.8% target share. His yards/route run of 0.95 is not encouraging.
Tank Dell: There were high hopes for Dell this year despite the addition of Stefon Diggs into this offense. Dell burst into the scene with instant chemistry with rookie QB CJ Stroud in 2023. His year ended due to injury and there was some concern with him having had the tightrope surgery that guys like Tony Pollard and Cooper Kupp had the previous off-season which didn’t lead to great fantasy seasons for them.
In the three games he’s played this year, he’s only scored 22.4 fantasy points. However, he is participating in 76% of routes. He’s only earning a 14% target share this year and a low 1.01 yards per route run. He was being drafted in the top third of fantasy drafts this year, his performance will need to pick up to justify starting him and possibly rostering him. But it’s too early to give up on him yet.
Quentin Johnston: The forgotten first-round draft pick from last year who acquired the ‘bust’ label has been heavily involved in the Chargers’ passing game this year. Johnson runs 79% of routes and has a 19.4% target share. His yards per route run is 1.73 this year. He’s not delivering week-changing numbers but is being rosters in all leagues. He’ll need to get his 7.5 ppg average up to be considered for your flex spot. Having Justin Herbert throwing you the ball always helps, however.
Alec Pierce: Pierce’s game seemed to be a good fit with Anthony Richardson, but in week 4 with Flacco playing much of the game, his target percentage dropped to 6.7% and yards per route run was 0.36. In Weeks 1-3, he had a target percentage of 17.8% and 3.36 yards per route run. If Richardson misses time, he’s a difficult start but might be worth rostering as long if Richardson is healthy.
Rookies
Malik Nabers: Nabers was the second wide receiver taken in the NFL draft his year and the second rookie receiver off the draft board. Reports all off-season validated that Nabers was going to be a difference-making receiver and the only concerns were with the quality of his quarterback. He seems to have overcome that concern although those concerns still exist, but it no longer plagues his projections in fantasy circles. Nabers is running routes on 91.2% of dropbacks and has earned a 35.9% target share with a 2.66 yards per run efficiency. Nabers has been a great addition to fantasy and redraft teams alike.
Marvin Harrison Jr.: Harrison was thought to be one of the best prospects coming into the league at the receiver position perhaps since Calvin Johnson. Sharing his father’s name and performing at Ohio State which has delivered high-end receivers into the NLF over the past handful of years likely helped. He didn’t generate the same publicity in the offseason as Nabers, but many attributed that to the difference between the NY media and Arizona media strength. Harrison opened up the year with a dud but has delivered for fantasy owners in the last three weeks. Overall, he’s run routes on 91% of dropbacks, has a 25% market share of targets, and has a strong 2.08 yards/route run. Keep using him in your lineup.
Brian Thomas Jr.: Thomas, another first-round draft pick in the NFL seems to have instantly cemented himself in the receiver rotation for the Jaguars. He’s third on the team in route participation percentage (75%) and second in target share (20%) but first in yards per route run (2.48) by over a yard aided by his 16.2 yards/rec. He’s already considered the WR1 in this offense by many and his statistics probably will warrant that by year’s end.
Xavier Worthy: When you run the fastest time ever recorded at the combine, then the Chiefs move up in the first round to draft you, expectations are going to be high. Worthy opened up the year with a two-touchdown performance which only drove the expectations higher. There isn’t a lot of receiver competition in Kansas City (Hollywood on IR) and Rice may get added to IR and possibly for the season which doesn’t leave a lot of established talent after Worthy.
Worthy has participated in 71% of routes for the Chiefs but has only earned an 11.6% target share and a 1.57 yards per route run. Kelce stepped up with Rice out of the game and you’d imagine he reprised his role as number one target, but with Justin Watson, Mecole Hardman, Juju Smith-Schuster, and Skyy Moore the only other receivers in the mix right now, Worthy will be leaned on to deliver more.
Tre Tucker: Tre Tucker is quietly starting to put together some performances. On the year, he’s earned a 14.8% target share and 1.5 yards per route run on 74.7% of routes. Those numbers are trending higher with an 88.7% route share in the last two weeks and a 23.4% target share and 2.17 yards per route run. This has yielded 38 points over the last two weeks. Davante Adams was OUT in week 4, which aided those numbers. But Adams and the Raiders seem to be ready to part ways. If a strong WR doesn’t come back in the trade, this could be all that is needed for Tucker to solidify himself on fantasy rosters.
Ladd McConkey: McConkey has emerged as the top WR for the Chargers early in the season. He’s running 77% of the routes and earning 25.8% of Justin Herbert’s targets. This results in 2.2 yards per route run. McConkey is already earning start consideration in lineups as he averages 11.2 fantasy points per game.
Xavier Legette: Legette is only running 58% of routes through four weeks, but with Adam Thielen currently sidelined, that jumped to 81% and garnered a 24% target share in week 4. His targets per route run at 22% for the year indicates that is a decent indication of what he could do while Thielen is sidelined. He also has 1.63 yards per route run on the season. With Andy Dalton quarterbacking this offense, the rookie could build on this early performance on a per-snap basis if his role can grow into the WR2 on the team.
Rome Odunze: The Bears offense has not come as advertised. Some blame the new offensive coordinator; others indicate Caleb wasn’t as ready as advertised. Rome as the WR3 on a low-volume passing game is having a hard time earning his spot in lineups. Odunze is running 78% of the routes and earning a 15.6% target share. His yards per route run leads the Bears’ receiver room at 1.31. But these are not numbers you can rely on with a starting fantasy receiver. Odunze is talented, but the offense needs to operate more efficiently before he can be trusted in your starting lineup.
Keon Coleman: Coleman is another rookie receiver who is being held back but a low-volume pass attack. He’s only running 32% of the routes. You would expect him to be able to increase his involvement in the offense. His targets per route run of 14% need to improve. His yards per route run of 1.62 is not bad for a rookie. Only Khalil Shakir is doing better on a per-route basis than Coleman, yet Coleman plays behind Curtis Samuel and Mack Hollins and plays roughly the same number of snaps as Valdes-Scantling.
Ja’Lynn Polk: In re-draft leagues, it’s hard to justify rostering any of the Patriot receivers right now. Polk is only earning a 7.8% target share and 0.58 yards per route run. A quarterback change may change his fortunes but for now, steer clear of the receivers on this offense.
Jordan Whittington: With Kupp out the last two weeks, Whittington’s involvement has moved up. He’s earning a team-high 20% of Stafford’s targets the last two weeks and turning that into 2.37 yards per route run. He’s doing this at a 62% route participation rate which would need to increase. However, Kupp may be back on week 7 or week 8 so this might be a window for him to help during bye weeks, but with Kupp and Nacua returning down the line his targets will shrink.
Young Tight Ends
Brock Bowers: Bowers disappointed in week 4 and his route participation is only 65% in the year. He is recording a 2.16 yards per route run (which leads the team) on a 17.8% target share (24% targets per route run). They need to figure out how to get Bowers even more involved in this passing game.
Tucker Kraft: Kraft seemingly broke out in Week 4 with Jordan Love returning from injury. Kraft ran 64% of the routes compared with Musgrave’s 27%. Kraft only garnered 12.3% of the targets and had 1.49 yards per route run. Those aren’t great numbers. His day was aided by a TD and a 2-point conversion.
Eric All: All is in a three-TE rotation with Mike Gesicki and Drew Sample. All received four of the nine targets to TE (Gesicki received the other 5). The run-heavy game script yielded more snaps to All. He continues to see his share of targets in those looks but only has a 22.8% route participation rate due to his lack of usage in passing formations. However, he does have a 14% targets per route run and 3.36 yards per route run. Both of these numbers are solid for a TE (elite YPRR). If he can find his way into more passing formations, he could become fantasy-relevant.
