Horse race handicapping is back with today’s 2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Breakdown!
Belmont Stakes 156 features a talented field of 10 entrants highlighted by both the Derby (Mystik Dan) and Preakness (Seize the Grey) winners along with the Derby runner-up (Sierra Leone).
With Belmont Park under construction for a new home, the last leg of the Triple Crown has moved north to beautiful Saratoga. Due to the layout of Saratoga’s track, the race normally runs at a distance of 1 ½-mile The race will now be reduced to a length of 1 ¼ miles. In case you are wondering, the Belmont Stakes, normally the longest of the Triple Crown races, will be run at the same distance required in the Kentucky Derby.
Oddsmakers have installed Sierra Leone as the 9/5 morning-line favorite. The son of Gun Runner with Flavien Prat abroad will try to earn his fourth win in six career starts for trainer Chad Brown.
New shooter and lightly raced Mindframe, who is a perfect 2-for-2 for Todd Pletcher, is listed as the 7/2 second choice on the morning line odds. This son of Constitution, who broke his maiden at Gulfstream Park winning by nearly 14 lengths back in the end of March, followed that up with a 7-length victory at Churchill Downs on May 4.
Mystik Dan, who finished second in the Preakness after winning the Derby, is the third overall betting choice at odds of 5-1.
Let’s dive right in and take a deeper look at the top contenders as well as some solid value longshots in the FullTime Fantasy 2024 Belmont Stakes Betting Breakdown
2024 Belmont Stakes Time, Location, TV:
- Racetrack: Saratoga Race Course – Saratoga Springs, New York
- Date: Saturday, June 8, 2024
- Purse: $2,000,000
- Distance: 1 ¼ mile, Dirt
- Race: 12
- Post Time: 6:41 p.m. EST / 3:41 PST
- TV: FOX
Image courtesy of @BelmontStakes on X
PACE MAKES RACE: PREFERED RUNNING STYLES
HORSES OF NOTE: Listed by post number, name, and odds:
TOP CONTENDERS BY THE ODDS
#9 Sierra Leone (9/5) Sierra Leone ran the longest distance of any horse in the Kentucky Derby and it cost him to come up just short to Mystik Dan. This son of Gun Runner, who won the Risen Star and Blue Grass Stakes, is two “noses” away from being undefeated. Favoritism is merited here. He is easily the horse to beat. Chad Brown has opted to replace jockey Tyler Gaffalione with Flavien Prat.
#10 Mindframe (7/2) This unbeaten son of Constitution is one of three entrants that could supply trainer Todd Pletcher with his potential fifth trip to the winner’s circle at the Belmont Stakes. Despite the impressive wins, Mindframe is easily an underlay at these short odds in this step up in class against this quality field. Can not overlook perhaps the best jockey in the country in Irad Ortiz Jr. aboard for the third consecutive time.
#3 Mystik Dan (5-1) Mystik Dan is the only horse in the field who will be competing in all three legs of the Triple Crown. After winning the Kentucky Derby this son of Goldencents will try to rebound after being upset by Seize the Grey in the Preakness. Three starts in five weeks results in a better use underneath as a trifecta and/or superfecta ticket target. Should enjoy the cutback in distance relief.
#1 Seize the Grey (8-1) This son of Arrogate was visually impressive beating Mystik Dan by 2 ¼-lengths in the Preakness. The question all ‘cappers must answer is whether his win was enhanced by the off-track sloppy conditions a few weeks back. Due to the presence of Mindframe, Dornoch, and The Wine Steward, it’s likely that this entrant for Hall of Fame trainer D. Wayne Lucas will not find an uncontested lead as he did in the Preakness when he took the field wire-to-wire.
LONGSHOTS
#2 Resilience (10/1) This talented son of Into Mischief finished a disappointing sixth in the Kentucky Derby. The Wood Memorial winner has been training really well in his morning workouts leading up to Belmont and according to respected trainer Bill Mott, he could be sitting on a monster effort on Saturday. The reduction in distance from a 1 ½-mile race to 1 ¼ miles could make a huge difference here. At double-digit odds, he will likely be flying under the radar at the betting windows due to so many big names and experienced winners in the field.
#8 Honor Marie (12-1) One of my top targets in the Derby was bounced around horribly at the starting gate, yet still recovered well enough for a respectable 8th-place finish. Those who backed the Derby’s “wise-guy” horse are willing to forgive that effort despite the fact the Belmont Stakes has historically not been a favorable race for deep closers. Will Florent Geroux try to have him more forwardly placed as opposed to closing from the clouds?
#5 Antiquarian (12-1) This entry for Todd Pletcher with Johnny V in the saddles, is a true wild card. This son of Preservationist, who heads in off a career-best win in the Peter Pan Stakes back in May, has improved in each of his four career races hitting the board in three of those efforts.
#6 Dornoch (15-1) My top-rated horse at the end of 2023 was this full brother to last year’s Kentucky Derby winner Mage. However, he has been a huge disappointment in 2024 finishing fourth in the BlueGrass and 10th in this year’s installment of the Run for the Roses. I expect his connections of Luis Saez and Danny Gargen to send this son of Good Magic right to the lead on Saturday. If he is able to get an uncontested lead, horse racing fans could be in store for a repeat of his top form displayed during wins in the Remsen Stakes and the Fountain of Youth. Can he be trusted despite his recent poor form?
Belmont Stakes 156 Formula Rankings
TOP TIER
- #9 Sierra Leone (Top Choice)
- #2 Resilience (Top Longshot)
- #8 Honor Marie (Top Moonshot)
- #10 Mindframe (Huge step up in class)
EXOTIC SLOT POTENTIAL
- #5 Antiqurian (Ascending)
- #1 Sieze the Grey (Consistent)
- #3 Mystik Dan (Tired?)
- #6 Dornoch (Former top-rated horse)
BY THE NUMBERS: EQUIBASE TOP SPEED FIGURES
Belmont Stakes 156 Betting Breakdown
My tickets will involve using #9 Sierra Leone (9/5) with #2 Resilience (10/1) and #8 Honor Marie (12/1) as my keys. I believe we could be witnessing some of the lower-priced horses completely missing the board on Saturday. When keying Sierra Leone I will be tossing Sieze the Grey, Mystik Dan, and Mindframe from the place slot simply because it doesn’t pay to stack the chalk in races of this magnitude. Instead, I will wheel Sierra Leone in the winning spot with top longshot Resilience in my top trifecta ticket, while using The Wine Steward, Antiquarian, and Honor Marie in my spread exotic play looking for a double-digit price to spice up the payouts.
TOP Exacta BOX: 9-2-8-5-10
- COST: $1 wager: $20
TOP Exacta Part-Wheel: 9 with 2,4,5,8
- COST: $1 wager: $4
TOP Trifecta Part-Wheel: 9 with 2 with 3,4,5,8,10
- COST: $1 wager: $5
SPEAD Trifecta Part-Wheel: 9 with 2,4,5,8 with 2,3,4,5,8,10
- COST: $.50 wager: $10
Trifecta UPSET Part-Wheel: 2,5,8 with 2,4,5,8,9,10 with 2,4,5,8,9,10
- COST: $50-cent wager: $30
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