Month: March 2024

Season Long – All Sports

2024 Washington Nationals Preview

March 8, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Washington Nationals Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in fantasy baseball and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five […]

2024 Washington Nationals Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in  fantasy baseball and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Washington Nationals Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

After winning the World Series in 2019, the Nationals moved into the basement in the NL East, and they should be treated as squatters based on their play over the past four seasons (217-329). Over the team’s first 43 seasons (Expos and Nationals), this franchise only had one playoff appearance while being robbed of a great opportunity in 1994 (74-40) due to a baseball strike. Washington made the postseason five times between 2012 and 2017. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Washington Nationals Preview projects their fortunes this year. 

The Nationals fell to 27th in ERA (5.02) for their starters and relievers. Their bullpen had 34 wins, 29 losses, and 42 saves over 599.0 innings with 523 strikeouts (lowest in the majors). Washington scored 700 runs (21st), hit 151 home runs (29th), and drove in 665 runs (21st). Their base stealers swiped 127 bases on 156 attempts (81.4%). 

In the offseason, Washington signed OF Joey Gallo, 3B Nick Senzel, and RP Dylan Floro. They parted ways with 1B Dominic Smith, OF Corey Dickerson, 2B Michael Chavis, RP Carl Edwards, and RP Victor Arano. The Nationals added SS Nasim Nunez in this year’s Rule 5 Draft.

Offensively, the Nationals lack star power and proven middle-of-the-order bats. SS CJ Abrams showed growth last year, giving them one player with youth and upside. OF Joey Gallo adds power at the expense of more trips to the dugout via strikeouts. Their top two prospects (James Woods and Dylan Crews) are outfielders.

Their bullpen has more risk than reward for their top choices to finish games. SP MacKenzie Gore and SP Josiah Gray have upside while failing to live up to expectations at this point in their major league career. The back of Washington’s rotation is messy, with minimal room for improvement in 2024. 

Starting Lineup

SS CJ Abrams

Over three short seasons in the minors, Abrams hit .331 over 483 at-bats with 109 runs, 12 home runs, 75 RBIs, and 42 steals. He only has 171 at-bats of experience at AAA (.310/42/7/30/14). His strikeout rate (15.5) beat the league average while having weakness in his walk rate (6.7). Abrams had an exceptional contact batting average (.400) but a light power-hitting average hit rate (1.544). 

In his first experience in the majors in 2022, he had a sharp decline in his average hit rate (.299) with a minimal change in his strikeout rate (16.6). Abrams did have a step back in his walk rate (1.7) and a less potent average hit rate (1.314). Lefties held him to a .157 batting average with no walks and 21 strikeouts over 89 at-bats.

Over the first half of last season, Abrams felt like a losing fantasy invested based on his production (.230/30/7/33/9) over 252 at-bats. The Nationals gave him the great light on the basepaths in July, leading to a much better player over his final 311 at-bats (.257 with 53 runs, 11 home runs, 31 RBIs, and 38 stolen base), helped a move to the top of the batting order.

His contact batting average (.310) remained well below his potential, but Abrams finished with an excellent bump in his average hit rate (1.681). He still had a low walk rate (5.2). His strikeout rate (19.2) regressed but remained in a favorable area. Abrams had a slight uptick in his exit velocity (87.4), with a better output in his hard-hit rate (35.9). He finished with 31 barrels. His swing path was more balanced (18/44/38) in 2023.

Fantasy Outlook: About two-thirds of Abrams’ equation checks the upside box. He must improve against lefties (.166 with three home runs and 18 RBIs over 151 at-bats) to become a more complete player. His ADP (40) in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship in mid-February ranks him as the eighth shortstop. In 2023, Abrams finished 32nd in FPGscore (2.84) for hitters, with a +4.16 coming from the steals category. His draft value aligns with last year’s stats this year, indicating a “good buy” in 2024. Abrams had 44 steals over 46 attempts over his final 121 games, which screams a push to much higher output in this area. I expect a better contact batting average, pushing him closer to the .270 range in batting average. I see a 90/20/70/60 player with 550 at-bats, making him a player to fight for in drafts…

 

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2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

March 7, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

The Phillies have increased their winning percentage for three consecutive seasons, leading to back-to-back berths in the postseason. Despite their progress, Philadelphia still finished 14 games out of first place in 2022 and 2023. They missed the playoffs from 2012 to 2021 after a five-year postseason run that included a World Series win in 2008. Their only other championship came in 1980. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Philadelphia Phillies Preview breaks down their chances this fall.

Philly finished 12th in ERA (4.03) last year, with better results from their relievers (37 wins, 27 losses, 45 saves, and 590 strikeouts over 543.1 innings with a 3.58 ERA – 7th). They ranked eighth in runs (796), home runs (220), and RBIs (771). The Phillies swiped 141 bases on 167 attempts (84.4%).

In the offseason, Philadelphia didn’t sign any free agents or make trades. They lost RP Craig Kimbrel (BAL), 1B Rhys Hoskins (MIL), Josh Harrison (FA), and SP Michael Lorenzen (SP). 

The starting lineup for the Phillies looks seven deep, with Bryce Harper transitioning to a full-time first baseman. Five of these players start the season on the wrong side of 30. The centerfield job looks wide open if OF Brandon Marsh slides over to left field.

In the poker world, Philadelphia may be starting the season with Ace/King suited, leaving them a step behind the best franchises in baseball that have a pair of aces. To compete for a playoff berth, Philly must get better innings out of their back three starters in 2024.

The bullpen’s success relies on RP Jose Alvarado staying healthy all season while seizing the closing role. Walks will be an issue for their remaining relieving options.

Starting Lineup

OF Kyle Schwarber

Since arriving in Philadelphia, Schwarber has had the best opportunity of his career, thanks to 886 of his 1,162 at-bats (76.2%) coming from the lead-off slot in the batting order. In addition, he has only sat out nine games over this span.

After a slow start in batting average (.185 with 27 runs, 11 home runs, and 23 RBIs over 173 at-bats) in 2022, Schwarber was a more valuable asset over the final four months (.233/73/35/71/8 over 404 at-bats). He had plenty of production (10 home runs and 30 RBIs over 197 at-bats) against left-handed pitching while falling short in batting average (.193). 

For the second time over the last four years, Schwarber posted a batting average under .200, but he set a career-best in walks (126). His average hit rate (.2409) has been in an area to support 40+ home runs with 550 at-bats over the past five years. He posted new tops in at-bats (585), runs (108), home runs (47), and RBIs (107). Schwarber struggled again against left-handed pitching (.188) despite hitting 15 home runs over 207 at-bats. His best production came over his final two months (.226 with 46 runs, 20 home runs, and 39 RBIs over 195 at-bats). 

His strikeout rate (29.9) matched 2022 while only being a few ticks off his career average (28.6). Schwarber set a new high in walks (17.5%). He almost repeated his flyball rate (49.9 – 51.1 in 2022 and 44.2 in his career). 

His launch ankle (19.0 – 40th), exit velocity (92.4 – 19th), barrel rate (16.4 – 15th), and hard-hit rate (48.8 – 40th). Schwarber had a minimal change in his HR/FB rate (25.5 – 24.9 in his career).

Fantasy Outlook: Last year, his FPGscore (2.70) ranked 34th for hitters with a -3.11 coming from batting average and -1.40 in stolen bases. Schwarber has an ADP of 91 in the NFBC this draft season as the 51st batter selected. The regression in batting average for him came from easier outs via infield flies (15.8% – 12.0 in 2022 and 8.0 in 2021) and a much weaker contact batting average (.311 – .334 in 2022 and .390 in 2021). Based on his recent resume, I expect him to get on base 200+ times with an excellent chance at 40 home runs. His runs should have a floor of 90, but his RBI chances (396 – 326 in 2022) won’t be as high in 2024. Schwarber project as a value even with some regression. With some steals (10 in 2022) and a rebound batting average (.230), he will be more viable for more team structures…

 

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2024 New York Mets Preview

March 6, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 New York Mets Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as […]

2024 New York Mets Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 New York Mets Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

Coming into 2023, the Mets bought a pair of aces who produced more like deuces, eventually leading to both players getting traded to other contenders. New York finished 29 games behind the Atlanta Braves. Since 1988, the Mets only made the postseason six times with two division titles. Their two World Series wins came in 1968 and 1986.

The Mets finished 19th in ERA (4.30), with more weakness in their bullpen (26 wins, 36 losses, 34 saves, and 571 strikeouts over 558.1 innings with a 4.45 ERA – 22nd). New York fell to 20th in runs (717) and 19th in RBIs (692) while offering plenty of power (215 – 10th). They stole 118 bases on 133 attempts (88.7% success rate). 

In the offseason, the Mets signed SP Luis Severino, SP Sean Manaea, CF Harrison Bader, 3B Joey Wendle, RP Jake Diekman, RP Shintaro Fujinami, and RP Jorge Lopez. They lost SP Carlos Carrasco, 1B Daniel Vogelbach, 2B Luis Guillorme, and SP Elieser Hernandez to free agency. New York added SP Adrian Houser and OF Tyrone Taylor in a couple of minor trades.

The buzz of the Mets offense has left the building, leaving a foundation of three proven players – 1B Pete Alonzo, SS Francisco Lindor, and OF Starling Marte. The combination of C Francisco Alvarez and 3B Mark Vientos offers the most upside in power from the developing cast of young bats. 

New York hopes OF Drew Gilbert can push his way to the majors sometime in 2024 after playing well in his rookie minor league season at High A and AA. The next potential blue-chip prospect is SS Luisangel Acuna, who will start this year at AAA. Both players were acquired via trades with Houston and Texas for Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer.

CL Edwin Diaz returns to solidify the ninth inning, but the starting rotation is loaded with risk/reward arms behind newly anointed ace Kodai Senga.

Starting Lineup

OF Brandon Nimmo

Nimmo turned in his first full season with the Mets in 2022 in his seventh year in the majors. Despite struggling in July in batting average (.222), Nimmo had his best production (.271 with 60 runs, 11 home runs, 40 RBIs, and three stolen bases over his final 325 at-bats). Surprisingly, his bat had less value at home (.234/39/4/22/1 over 273 at-bats).

Last year, Nimmo set a new top in at-bats (592) for the second consecutive season while showcasing more power (24 home runs) but an overall loss in combined runs and RBIs (157 – 166 in 2022). Based on his walks-to-strikeout ratio, he was a much better player after the All-Star break (28:58 over 250 at-bats) than before (46:92 over 342 at-bats). Nimmo stole all three of his bases in April. His best production month came in June (.255/14/7/18 over 98 at-bats). He ended the season in late September with a right shoulder strain.

His strikeout rate (21.4 – 22.1 in his career) reverted to the league average but a four-year high by a small margin. Nimmo continues to take walks (10.9% – 13.0 in his career). He finished with an improved swing path (flyball rate – 39.2 – 31.7 in 2022 and groundball rate – 41.0 – 50.5 in 2022). 

Nimmo’s growth in power was highlighted by a jump in his hard-hit rate (47.9 – 41.0 in his career) and exit velocity (91.8 – 89.4 in 2022). He also set a new high in his barrel rate (9.5).

Fantasy Outlook: New York paid Nimmo last winter, and he rewarded their trust with another productive season. The change in his swing path and a rebound in his average hit rate (1.704) give him an outside chance at hitting 30 home runs in 2024. His contact batting average (.363) also hints at a higher average if he can shave off a few strikeouts. In the early draft season in the NFBC, his ADP (193) ranks 116th for hitters. Nimmo finished 71st in FPGscore (0.52). Based on his last two seasons, he should outperform his price point with a healthy season…

 

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2024 Miami Marlins Preview

March 5, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Miami Marlins Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Miami Marlins Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best.

 

This 2024 Miami Marlins Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

The Marlins haven’t scored more runs than they allowed since 2010 (719 to 717), but they made the postseason twice over the past four years. Miami has been in the league for 31 years, with four playoff berths, two leading to World Series titles (1997 and 2003). 

They ranked 16th in ERA (4.21) while having less value from their relievers (4.37 ERA – 21st). The Marlins’ bullpen had 45 wins (3rd), 27 losses, and 43 saves over 617.1 innings with 665 strikeouts. Miami scored only 666 runs (26th) with 166 home runs (22nd) and 633 RBIs (27th). Their baserunners stole 86 bags on 107 tries (80.4%). Surprisingly, they finished fifth in batting average (.259), thanks to Luis Arraez (.354).

In the offseason, the Marlins acquired 2B Vidal Brujan from Tampa for SS Erick Lara and P Andrew Lindsey. Cleveland shipped them C Christian Bethancourt for cash. Miami added 1B Trey Mancini as a non-roster invitee. They lost OF Jorge Soler, RP David Robertson, RP Matt Moore, and 2B Garrett Hampson to free agency.

The starting rotation has high upside at multiple pitching slots and injury risk. The Marlins will be without SP Sandy Alcantara for 2024 after having TJ surgery last October. SP Eury Perez is a future ace but needs to build up his innings count before becoming a trusted frontline fantasy starter. Miami has three lefties at the top of their bullpen depth chart, leaving a cloudy feel to their closing job.

Offensively, the Marlins will rank below the league average again in 2024. They don’t have one impact player with multiple starting jobs up for grabs this year. Ultimately, Miami needs more Jazz in their lineup, but that thought tends to be out of tune on too many days.

Starting Lineup

2B Luis Arraez

The Twins gave Arraez the best opportunity of his career in 2022, leading to career highs in at-bats (547), runs (88), home runs (8), and RBIs (49). He finished the season ranked 67th in FPGscore (0.66), thanks to his edge in batting average (.316 ~ +2.80 points gained in roto standings). He made strides to improve his swing path, highlighted by a career-high flyball rate (32.9) and a new top in his HR/FB rate (4.8). Arraez continues to have a weak average hit rate (1.329). He worked in the 2023 off-season with Nelson Cruz to improve his loft. 

Last year, Arraez hit .402 (.425 contact batting average) over his first 274 at-bats with 34 runs, three home runs, 37 RBIs, and one steal. Pitchers only struck him out 15 times over this span with 24 walks. Over his final 300 at-bats, he hit .310 (.331 contact batting average) with 37 runs, seven home runs, and 32 RBIs. Four of his home runs came over his final 10 games.  Arraez hit over .300 every month except August (.236/13/5/11 over 110 at-bats). 

His walk rate (5.7) was a career low while posting one of the lowest strikeout rates (5.5) in the modern era of baseball. Arraez only had 19 barrels (18 in 2022), with no change in his launch angle (11.5). His exit velocity (88.3) was a three-year low. The high number of balls in play led to a meager hard-hit rate (25.7). His HR/FB rate (6.5) was a career-best.

Fantasy Outlook: Arraez finished last year ranked FPGscore 52nd (1.56) for hitters with +4.80 coming from batting average. His ADP (166) in the high-stake market ranked him 15th at second base as the 101st player drafted. The Marlins have a below-par, creating weakness in runs and RBIs. His first-half run in contact batting average was an outlier, especially with no uptick in his exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

In addition, only 140 of his 540 balls in play reached the 95.0 mph mark (153 out of 504 in 2022). I don’t see a pop in home runs, but I know he will work hard over the winter to improve. Arraez is a unique fantasy option that hurts a team structure more than he helps in most team builds. Let’s go .325 with 75 runs, seven home runs, 60 RBIs, and three steals. I’m only interested in him at a discount, but I must follow his spring news in case his bat shows more power…

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2024 Atlanta Braves Preview

March 4, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Atlanta Braves Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Atlanta Braves Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Atlanta Braves Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

The Braves finished with the second-most wins (104 – tied with their 1993 season) in the team’s history in 2023, but they failed to make it to the World Series. Atlanta extended their postseason streak to six seasons, leading to one championship title (2021). Over the past 33 years, the Braves have been one of the best teams in baseball, with 23 trips to playoffs and one other World Series win (1995). The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Atlanta Braves Preview breaks down the club’s chances this season.

Atlanta was active in the trade market in the offseason. They made a couple of dump trades reminiscent of fantasy leagues at Yahoo and ESPN, where the goal is to give away a volume of players for one potential impact bat or pitcher. 

The Braves shipped out their second-tier prospects (SP Michael Soroka, SP Jared Shuster, 2B Nicky Lopez, and 2B Braden Shewmake) to the White Sox for a lefty reliever (Aaron Bummer). In a second deal with Seattle, they acquired OF Jared Kelenic, SP Marco Gonzales, and 1B Evan White for P Cole Phillips and P Jackson Kowar. Their last trade brought in SP Chris Sale for 2B Vaughn Grissom. The Braves added SS David Fletcher for infield depth in a minor deal.

They lost OF Eddie Rosario, RP Kirby Yates, and RP Brad Hand to free agency while signing RP Reynaldo Lopez and IF Luis Guillorme. 

Last season, the pitching staff had an underwhelming ERA (4.14 – 15th). Their bullpen (3.81 ERA – 11th) graded slightly better, highlighted by 38 wins and 52 saves over 588.0 innings with 642 strikeouts. Atlanta had the best offense in baseball (947 runs, 307 home runs, and 916 RBIs). They stole 132 bases on 159 attempts (83.0%), thanks to Ronald Acuna (73-for-87).

On paper, the Braves may have a better offense than last year if all their key players stay healthy and perform up to expectations. The only position with a below-par option looks to be shortstop.

I expect a better finish on the pitching side of the equation via the addition of Chris Sale and a healthy season from Max Fried. Their bullpen also has a better overall structure based on their offseason changes.

Starting Lineup

OF Ronald Acuña

The Braves lost Acuña for the season in 2021 on July 10th with a torn ACL in his right knee. His success over 82 games projected over the entire season came to 142 runs, 47 home runs, 103 RBIs, and 34 stolen bases, which would have ranked him first for hitters in FPGscore (13.51). 

In 2022, he returned to action on April 28th after sitting out the first 19 games. Acuña ran over his 22 starts (.284/13/2/10/9 over 81 at-bats), but he struck out 32.3% of the time. Groin, quad, and foot injuries led to 12 missed games in May and June. His best production came over the final two months (.275/31/7/27/7 over 204 at-bats). Acuña stole 20 of his 29 bases before the All-Star break. 

For those drafters, winning the debate card between Acuña and Julio Rodriguez, they were rewarded with a historic season. The Braves’ top player led the National League in at-bats (643), runs (149), hits (217), and stolen bases (73). He hit .298 or higher every month, with his best production coming in September (.340/29/11/23/11 over 106 at-bats).

His output in home runs (41) matched 2019 despite a pullback in his average hit rate (1.765). Acuña was a beast with runners on base (RBI rate – 20), but he only had 333 RBI chances. His strikeout rate (11.4) was the best of his career (22.0) by a wide margin, but Acuña took fewer walks (10.9% – 11.3 in his career).

His exit velocity (94.7 – 2nd) and hard-hit rate (55.2 – 5th) were the best of his career. He finished with 310 balls in play of 95 mph or more. His swing path led to a career-low flyball rate (30.4 – 36.4 in his career) and a new top in his groundball rate (49.5), highlighted by his launch angle (7.4). When putting the ball in the air, Acuña had his fourth-highest HR/FB rate (24.0) over his six seasons.

Fantasy Outlook: Since I’ve been tracking FPGscores for the NFBC, Acuña (20.53) was the most impactful player by a wide margin. In 2019, Justin Verlander (16.07) and Gerrit Cole (15.25) had incredible seasons on the pitching side, thanks to big win (21 and 20) and strikeout (300 and 326) totals. Acuña is the first player in almost all early National Fantasy Baseball Championship drafts. He can’t reach much higher in RBIs without a drop in batting order. With more balls in the air, his next stop should be the 50/50 club that has opening seating. I expect a pullback in batting average due to some regression in his strikeout rate and fewer groundballs hit. Acuña feels like a free square in the fantasy baseball game of bingo…

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2024 Texas Rangers Preview

March 2, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Texas Rangers Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Texas Rangers Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Texas Rangers Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

The Rangers ended their six-year playoff drought with their first World Series title in the team’s 63-year history (52nd playing in Texas). They only have eight other trips to the postseason, two of which ended with losses in the championship series. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Texas Rangers Preview projects the defending champs will face mounting challenges in attempting to repeat.

Surprisingly, Texas ranked poorly in ERA (4.28 – 18th). Their relievers picked up 31 wins, 34 losses, and 30 saves over 564.1 innings with 557 strikeouts and a 4.77 ERA (24th). The Rangers’ push to the top of the baseball world came from a third-place finish in runs (881), home runs (233), and RBIs (845). They had the second-best batting average (.263) while not being very active on the base paths (79 stolen bases on 98 attempts).

In the offseason, the Rangers signed RP David Robertson, RP Kirby Yates, and SP Tyler Mahle. They lost SP Jordan Montgomery, SP Martin Perez, RP Will Smith, RP Aroldis Chapman, and C Mitch Garver to free agency. 

Texas comes into this year with further questions with their starting rotation due to SP Jacob deGrom and SP Tyler Mahle having TJ surgeries last year. SP Max Scherzer comes off a herniated disc that was hopefully corrected last December. The Rangers expect him to mix the first two months of the year. Their bullpen has three arms with closing experience, but no one projects to be an elite option.

SS Corey Seager carried the team last year (American League and World Series MVP). Unfortunately, a lingering sports hernia required surgery in late January, putting him behind schedule for the start of the year. The Rangers have high hopes for two young bats – OF Evan Carter and OF Wyatt Langford that will add length and upside to their starting lineup.

Starting Lineup

 2B Marcus Semien

Four times over the past five years, Semien has been a top-tier player, supported by his rank (20th, 7th, 15th, and 11th) by FPGscore (2019 – 5.36, 2021 – 7.61, 2022 – 6.31, and 2023 – 6.52) for hitters. A significant part of his best seasons came from leading the American League in plate appearances (2019 – 747, 2021 – 724, 2022 – 724, and 2023 – 753) and games (162, 162, 161, and 162).

In 2022, his bat had minimal impact over his first 200 at-bats (.190/23/2/18/7). Semien played well over the final four months (.274 with 78 runs, 24 home runs, 65 RBIs, and 18 steals over 457 at-bats). 

Last year, he delivered his highest production in April (.268/25/5/23/4 over 112 at-bats) and September (.282/23/9/19/1 over 117 at-bats). His RBI rate (20) was the best of his career, with repeated value in his average hit rate (1.730). Semien posted a four-year low in his strikeout rate (14.6) while beating his career average in his walk rate (9.6). His bat had more value in batting average (.283), but he had three home runs and 17 RBIs over 187 at-bats.

His quest for more home runs came via a high fly-ball rate (46.6, 48.1, 47.2, and 46.5) over the previous four seasons and a high launch angle (19.1 – 38th). In addition, his exit velocity (88.4 – 239th) and hard-hit rate (37.0 – 265th) ranked poorly. 

Fantasy Outlook: Semien comes to the ballpark ready to play every day. His counting stats create an edge while his swing path overcomes some of his shortfalls in bat speed metrics to help his floor in home runs. He comes off the board as the 23rd batter in early February based on his ADP (29) in the high-stakes market. Semien beat expectations last year, and the Rangers’ overall lineup appears to have more depth in 2024. This tune has a winning beat, but top-charting hits can’t spin forever…

 

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Season Long – All Sports

2024 Seattle Mariners Preview

March 1, 2024 Shawn Childs

2024 Seattle Mariners Preview Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well […]

2024 Seattle Mariners Preview

Shawn Childs is a legend in the fantasy baseball world and his advice is invaluable. A member of the NFBC Hall of Fame, Shawn has several top-5 finishes in the National Fantasy Baseball Championship as well as five NFBC auction championship titles under his belt. He also boasts several prominent in the high-stakes market and multiple huge DFS wins. Shawn’s process and evaluation are among the most thorough in the sport and his exclusive FPGscore metric is changing the game. This 2024 team preview and insight is courtesy of the brilliant mind of one of the sport’s best. 

 

This 2024 Seattle Mariners Preview is courtesy of Shawn Childs. Read Shawn’s expert fantasy analysis at his Substack.

 

The Mariners have been on the uptick over the past three seasons (88-74, 90-72, and 90-72), but they only made the playoffs once (2022). Before this run, Seattle missed the postseason for 20 consecutive years while never playing in the World Series in the team’s history. The FullTime Fantasy 2024 Mariners Preview projects continued success for the upstart young squad. 

Their pitching staff ranked third in ERA (3.74), with a tick-down in value from their bullpen (3.48 ERA – 4th). The Mariners relievers had 32 wins, 28 losses, and 44 saves over 548.0 innings with 603 strikeouts. Seattle finished 12th in runs (758), 11th in home runs (210), and 12th in RBIs (728). They stole 118 bases on 148 attempts (79.7).

In the offseason, the Mariners lost OF Teoscar Hernandez, C Tom Murphy, 1B Mike Ford, 2B Tommy La Stella, RP Diego Castillo, and RP Dominic Leone. They signed C Mitch Garver while retooling multiple positions and their depth via trades – 2B Jorge Polanco, OF Luke Raley, OF Mitch Haniger, 3B Luis Urias, C Seby Zavala, and RP Jackson Kowar. In those deals, Seattle shipped out 2B Jose Caballero, 3B Eugenio Suarez, SP Robbie Ray, RP Isaiah Campbell, OF Jarred Kelenic, and SP Marco Gonzales.

The foundation of their starting rotation projects well with division-winning upside and length of winning arms. RP Anthony Munoz and RP Matt Brash have the talent to finish games in the eighth and ninth innings.

Even with a stud, Julio Rodriguez, leading their offense, the Mariners don’t have a difference-maker in any other slot in their batting order but many competitive bats. 

Starting Lineup

SS J.P. Crawford

Seattle gave Crawford 160 games to prove his worth in the majors in 2021. His volume of at-bats (619) led to a slight edge in runs (89), and his batting average (.273) beat the league average. His contact batting average (.335) improved in back-to-back years. Most of his power and RBI production came in June (.352/17/3/14/2 over 108 at-bats) and September (.312/22/3/16 over 122 at-bats). 

In 2022, Crawford lost momentum with his contact batting average (.288 – .335 in 2021) with a step back in his run rate (29 – 39 in 2021) and RBI rate (11 – 15 in 2021). In addition, his average hit rate (1.381) He started the year with success in April (.360/11/3/9/1 over 75 at-bats) while finishing the season a dismal stats over the All-Star break (.211 with 16 runs, one home run, and 17 RBIs over 209 at-bats). Crawford also struggled vs. lefties (.221.18/3/19 over 154 at-bats).

Last year, the fantasy market saw the best version of Crawford. He found his power stroke (19 home runs), leading to career highs in runs and RBIs (65) while leading the American League in walks (94). In addition, Crawford also had a new top in his contact batting average (.347) with a spike in his average hit rate (1.648 – 1.443 over his previous career). His home run surge came in September (.259/18/7/18 over 116 at-bats).

His approach (strikeout rate – 19.6 and walk rate – 14.7) remains in a favorable area. He finished his highest flyball rate (37.7) of his career, with a jump in his HR/FB rate (12.3 – 4.3 in 2022). Crawford has a spike in his hard-hit rate (36.3 – 30.8 in his career) with some gain in his exit velocity (88.3 – 85.1 in 2022). His rise in power was tied to his higher launch angle (15.3 – 8.9 in 2022).

Fantasy Outlook: Crawford finished last season 85th in FPGscore (-0.65) for hitters. In late January, his ADP (262) in the high-stakes market ranks him 157th for batters and 25th at shortstop. With no speed on his resume and questions about follow-through in power, he is a challenging piece to manage on a fantasy team if he doesn’t bat leadoff and delivers quiet production for multiple months. Possible value for the right team structure…

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