Manic Monday: Week 14

Jim Mora Playoffs?

“It’s just a game…”

Any avid sports fan has likely heard that. Probably every weekend. People who aren’t really sports fans, or who have to tolerate life with an obsessive one, just don’t, and likely will never get it.

They just don’t understand the pain, or how hard we fanatics take things.

The truth is, we’re justified to act upset and let things bother us. Several clinical studies have shown that there are extreme short- and long-term effects both mentally and physically and that the pain that avid sports fans feel can cause severe anxiety and unhealthy stress.

I’m not a doctor, but I will opine that fantasy football losses are some of the worst. Not only do many people likely have money on the line, but fantasy sports actually allow you to have a say in the outcome, instead of just being a victim watching the game on TV.

By doing your own research and putting in your own lineup, you have a say in how your team does, and the consequences for a good decision double the positive vibes.

And when you doubt yourself, make an idiotic last-second lineup substitution that blows up, or leave a huge performance on the bench, those kinds of decisions can linger for weeks. In some cases, even years.

Trust me, I know. I’ve been doing this for 30 seasons- I’ve cost myself championships by “being cute” more times than I care to remember, and I’m still plenty bitter at Kordell Stewart and Natrone Means. Aaron Rodgers relax

I’m not going to tell you to R-E-L-A-X or to take a step back. These are the playoffs, and this is what we’ve been working hard for since last season ended.

You’re justified to take things seriously. Life is short, enjoy the time you have. And count yourself fortunate that you’re in a position to be passionate about something. Even if your partner or family doesn’t get it.

Bye Byes

The vast majority of fantasy leagues are 12-team formats with the playoffs now running from Weeks 15-17. In the past, we tried to avoid what was often a meaningless finale in Week 17 but now with an expanded schedule, it’s Week 18 that we’d like to avoid.

That puts most fantasy championships now into Week 17 but some extremely large leagues have to utilize a 4-week postseason window, so Week 14 was the opening round in some leagues, including a couple that I am in.

And your reward for reaching the playoffs- you can’t start the MVP. Yep, the majority of people that were fortunate enough to draft Jonathan Taylor probably made the tournament only to have Taylor, Jalen Hurts, or Michael Pittman unavailable due to a ridiculously late Week 14 bye.

It makes no sense to have byes so late into the season. To get all 32 teams a rest week, that could be accomplished in eight weeks. Say, from Weeks 5-12. Seems pretty simple, right?

But that’s not what we had. Instead, we had two different weeks with just two teams off, one week with six (!) teams off, and a period of nine weeks without having all 32 teams in action.

There’s no reason to have bye weeks this late, and I hope the NFL fixed that starting in 2022. The league is smart enough to understand and embrace the importance of fantasy football, so for all of us needlessly suffering this Week 14, let’s hope they get it fixed.

Where We Were Right

Our quarterback projections were strong this week. In addition to having Josh Allen No. 1 overall, we were higher on Aaron RodgersJustin Herbertand Aaron Rodgers, who all finished inside the top-5. We also noted in the Discord that Lamar Jackson has not been good on the road this season and lowered him significantly.

Wikipedia tells us that Aaron Rodgers is the current owner of the Chicago Bears, so clearly we projected an elite performance out of Green Bay’s passing attack. That placed Davante Adams as our No. 1 wide receiver for Week 14 and Adams responded by owning Chicago’s secondary with a 10/121/2 line- overall No. 1 wideout numbers.

From zero to hero. Detroit RB Craig Reynolds was a late addition to the projections, but he came in as our RB40 for the week. Turns out, that wasn’t nearly high enough but was significantly higher than the consensus rankings. Only two other rankers had higher projections for the former undrafted free agent out of Kutztown.

Where We Were Wrong

The Chiefs scored 48 points but Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce both had disappointing performances. Both players have been rather muted over the past 4-6 weeks but we correctly thought Kansas City would roll Las Vegas at home. It was just frustrating to see a plan work out but still be so wrong.

In that same game, we correctly predicted a big deficit and pass-friendly scenario for the Raiders but whiffed on TE Foster Moreau. The targets that we thought would go his way never materialized and all went to WR Hunter Renfrow instead. Moreau didn’t come anywhere near the TE10 numbers we projected. We need Darren Waller back in the worst way.

It was easy to predict that Seattle would win and cover in Houston, which would lead to decent backfield numbers. We just didn’t think Rashaad Penny would blow up the way he did. Penny looked terrific and posted top-5 fantasy numbers for the week, while our projections had him down in RB3/4 territory. WR DK Metcalf also continues to frustrate and missed on multiple touchdown targets.


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About Jody Smith 470 Articles
With over a decade of winning experience, Jody is a well-known fixture in the fantasy football community. He was named Fantasy Pros’ **Most Accurate Ranker** previously and was the site’s Top NFL over/under totals picker with a record 65% accuracy in 2020, while also ranking 5th in the country with a 55% against-the-spread hit rate. Jody has written for many sites over the years including Pro Football Focus, FantasyPros, CBS Sportsline, FantasyData, and is a regular contributor to the Fantasy Index magazine expert’s poll, draft, and auction. Jody’s experience ranking and projecting player performance will help prepare the Fulltime Fam for their big draft days as well as answers they can trust on Sunday for those ever crucial Who Do I Start questions.