Tonight we are looking at an 8 game slate with no pitcher over 10k on DK or FD. The pitching on the slate is pretty rough with a few options that I like. Most the games have solid weather in the high 70s to mid 80s with 1 coming in close to 100 degrees. The Twins/Ranger game will have weather in the high 90s tonight, which will really help the ball travel in that park.
PITCHERS
Sonny Gray
Gray has pitched very well this year and over his last 9 games he has posted 8 with 20+ DK points. In his last 2 game he has allowed 0 runs. He has limited HRs to under 1 per 9 including in Cincinnati. The Cardinals current lineup has a K rate of around 20% with Gray coming in close to 30%. I can see him going 6-7 innings allowing a run or two and striking out 7 tonight.
Alex Young
Young has pitched fairly well this year so far with 31 Ks on 38 innings and a 3.32 ERA. His first game of the year was against the Giants and he went 5 innings and he allowed 3 hits, 1 run and struck out 5 hitters. Tonight he faces a Giants team with a current lineup that strikes out 26% of the time vs LHP. I can see him going 5-6 innings with a few runs and 6 Ks.
VALUE ARM
Aaron Sanchez
Sanchez has pitched well over his last 3 games with 2 of those being with his new team the Astros. It looks like the Astros pitching staff has discovered that his best pitch was the curvball which he has a 38% whiff rate on along with a .035 ISO. In his last 2 games Sanchez has thrown the curve 30%(+10% on the year) of this time, which was the same as he threw the fastball. This looks like it has made a difference with back-to-back solid outings only allowing 1 ER over 11 innings, while striking out 12 hitters. Tonight, he faced the Oakland As who are coming off a 15 hits 9 runs game in San Fransisco. The As have power, but they do not hit the curveball well at all outside of Olson. The large park will help Sanchez tonight and I can see him going 6 innings allowing 1 ER and striking out 6 hitters.
TEAM/S
ARI Diamondbacks vs Derreck Rodriquez
Rodriquez this year has been hit hard by LHHs allowing a .368 wOBA, 2HRs/9 and a 44% HC rate. On the road vsL this year he has allowed a .436 wOBA with a 3.21 HRs/9 and a 44% HC rate. The DBacks have a good amount of power bats that will hit from the left side.
*Marte. Escobar, Peralta & Avila all have over a .200 ISO and Lamb has power as well.
*Walker has a .240 ISO and Ahmed hits well vs a few of Rodriquez’s pitch types.
Favorites: Escobar, Walker, Peralta, Lamb
MIN Twins vs Pedro Payano
The temps will be close to 100 degrees tonight in one of the better hitting parks in the league. Payano has not pitched very well so far this year and the Twins have a lot of power in the lineup.
*Rosario is on Fire, Gonzalez has been hitting well also. Sano & Kepler in good spots as well. Cron, Castro and Cave.
Bottom line is that just about everyone in this lineup has pop. Hot weather in ballpark that is very good for hitters.
*Rosario is my favorite, Sano, Gonzalez right behind, but like I said can go anyone in this lineup.
FAVORITE BATS
Aristedes Aquino
Since this kid has come up he has just mashed the ball with 9 HRs in 44 at bats with 5 multi-hit games(12 games played). Tonight, he faces Michael Wacha who has been pretty bad as of late not making it out of the 4 innings in his last 5 games. Wacha has a low K rate along with a .403 wOBA, 2.5 HRs/9 and a 40% HC rate vs RHHs on the year. This also puts Geno Suarez in play as well. Stack with Suarez & Ervin or Galvis .
Javier Baez
The Cubs get to face Drew Smyly tonight in Philadelphia. Smyly has been picking up ownership due to a few decent matchups and 2 good starts. Let’s take a look at his actually box score and data. He has allowed 4 or more runs in 9 of last 13 games, 2 or more HRs in 7 of last 13 games, 23 HRs over 75 innings (close to 3 per 9). Over all he is not a good pitcher and it looks like he will pick up a good amount of ownership tonight again. Baez has destroyed LHP on the year with a .432 wOBA, .348 ISO and 48% HC rate. Add in the fact that Smyly’s 2nd most thrown pitch is the curveball and Baez hits it very well along with Nick Castellanos. Can stack with Castellanos, Bryant and Happ.
Gary Sanchez
Sanchez has not much other than hit HRs this year and tonight is a good spot for a HR or two. He faces Plutko who mainly throw fastballs and Sanchez destroys the fastball. Also, Plutko has been worse vs RHH’s allowing close to a .300 ISO vs them. Stack with Gregarious.
VALUE BATS
Adam Duvall- Going yard tonight against Stroman.
Nick Ahmed– hits well vs Rodriquez pitch types.
Kyle Farmer/Tucker Barnhart–
Freddy Galvis–
Ryan Goins- LvL .440 average, .565 wOBA & .348 ISO. Heaney has been a bit worse vs LHHs.
Victor Cartini– hits well vs LHP.
David Bote
Good Luck
