So, it was brought up in Slack that a little more depth was wanted, so I’m going to break this down a little bit more. Give you guys some transparency of my thought process. We have Max tonight, but does anyone know Max’s weakness? Hands….anyone…..? You’re right, lefties who have power. He’s 15th on the slate in slugging against lefties, and 12th in hard contact. Other than Texas and Cleveland, Atlanta is one of a few teams absolutely loaded with lefty power. There is some rain issues, but it’s going to be in the mid 80’s with mid 80’s humidity in D.C. tonight. Freeman, Albies and maybe even Marky Mark homer tonight in our Nations Capital.
PITCHING
Heaney – he’s a much better pitcher at home with a 2.44 era and 23.6% k rate. Only real issue I can see is Castellanos, but this game is played under the stars so I’m not scared. (Risk factor 4)
Pivetta – I cannot figure this guy out. If he could just figure out how to NOT give up as many runs runs he could possibly be a top 10 pitcher. 26.7% k rate to lefties and 31.4% to righties. Let’s scratch Peralta off tonight, he used his homer card last night hitting 2. Scary on paper, but he can overpower these righties with his 25.7% k rate fastball. (Risk factor 5)
Anderson – He gets San Diego at home where his k rate is a little bit better at 21.5% and hasn’t allowed a home run in his last 2 starts there against LA and Minnesota. (Risk factor 5)
Lopez – Yes, I’m crazy on this one but hear me out. Stanton is dealing with a hamstring issue, so we can assume it’s effecting his lower half in his swing. Lopez is better at home with a 3.99 ERA and just a 25.7% hard contact to lefties. (Gardner/Hicks/Didi/Walker/Bird) He’s stupid cheap so all we’re asking is 25 points and let our loaded bats do work.
Glasnow – He looked very good against LA in his relief appearance, and I’d imagine they stretch him out to 70-80P tonight. Again, another extremely cheap arm where we’re asking for 25-30 points. He’s pitching in a friendly park, where we’ve seen significantly better pitching from this Tampa staff. (Risk factor 4)
STACKS
Atlanta – Read above…..Max gets hit
Milwaukee – Richard comes into beer country with a 6.10 era and 9 homers given up to righties. Don’t forget about Hernan Perez who’s hit 3 homers since July 25 in limited action.
Texas – King Felix in the heat with his 7.58 road era…….Love Odor, but also think Beltre hits one tonight. Gallo/Profar/Choo
Mets – Sal gives up a .295 average and 41.2% hard contact at home. Nimmo who’s been ice cold starts his heater, along with Conforto. Flores has also quietly been heating up, and his McNeil kid isn’t bad either being 8 for his last 12 with a home run.
Seattle – GEEEEEEEEZZZZZEEEEEE did they let us down yesterday. But let’s go back to the well, because why???? They get the HUMAN POTATO today!!!!! Usual suspects Cruz/Haniger/Seager/Span/Healy.
ONE OFFS
Suarez
Rosario
NOTABLE STACKS
Toronto
Angels
CORE 4
Pivetta or Anderson
Aguilar
Odor
Suarez
Cruz
